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China's President XI Jinping,
held a massive military parade
to mark 80 years
since the end of World War two
and the country's victory in it.
But it was much more than a parade.
Vladimir Putin was there.
The leader of Russia and
North Korea's Kim Jong un.
It was the first time all three men have
met together, and that's a big deal.
But what sort of alliance is this,
and how should Western
leaders respond? I'm Celia Hatton.
This is the global news podcast
on the BBC World Service.
Well, to help explain all of this,
I'm joined by four names
from around the BBC.
We have Stephen McDonell, Jeanne
McKenzie, Olga Ivashina and with me
in the studio, Mikey Kaye.
Jeanne, I'm going to start with you,
and I'm going to ask you the question
that I want everybody really to answer.
Can you introduce yourself
and then also tell us
what's the one moment
that stood out for you
from the events
that we've been seeing in Beijing.
So I'm the BBC's Seoul correspondent,
which means I'm based here in Seoul
in South Korea,
but I cover North and South Korea.
And so for me, watching this parade,
the moment I guess that really stood out
for me was just right
at the beginning
when you had Kim Jong UN walking
through Tiananmen Square,
right at the front with XI Jinping
and Vladimir Putin,
the three of them together,
just because, you know, this is
a leader that has been so isolated.
And suddenly he seemed
almost elevated to the same level
of these two major world players.
And just seeing them,
seeing him on that kind of stage
and given that prominence
by the Chinese was quite staggering.
Absolutely.
And Olga, your thoughts, what's the
moment that that's stuck in your mind?
I'm covering everything related
to Russia.
Senior correspondent
at BBC Russian Service.
The moment which really stuck with me
was actually a day before
when Putin was welcomed by
XI Jinping.
And this is the moment which
was broadcasted by Russian TV many,
many times on repeat afterwards.
It was Mr. Putin walking on
a red carpet just through the barrage
of flags of of the other countries
who were invited by XI Jinping as well.
And this was exactly the message,
both internally and externally,
because the West, the Western
countries were talking so much
about isolation of Russia,
about sanctions,
diplomatic blockade,
economic blockade.
But here he is, Mr.
Putin walking
on the red carpet again
through the barrage of flags,
surrounded by countries
who are happy to talk to him,
who see him not who at least publicly
perceive him, not as a war criminal,
but as a leader of a mighty country
who they want to have dealings with.
That's a very
powerful message, which Mr.
Putin wants to reiterate again
and again.
Okay, so that was the view from
Moscow. Let's go over to Beijing.
Stephen, you've been in the middle
of this all for days now.
What's been a big moment
in your mind?
I'm one of the China correspondents
based in Beijing.
I've been a reporter in this city
for two decades,
so I've seen quite a few
of these parades.
You know, it's it is amazing.
Even though these things happen again
and again,
they never cease to, uh, well,
make you laugh because.
So this parade, it's not
for ordinary people to go to.
In fact, for several blocks back from
the main east west drag of Beijing,
you couldn't get anywhere near it
unless you've got special permission.
And there's some poor
foreigner there.
Somewhere down the road, he and he
can see the vehicles coming through.
He's trying to take some photos
with his camera.
And there are these two plainclothes
goons standing in front of him,
blocking his camera, but also filming
themselves the parade at the same time.
So they're blocking him
while they're filming the parade,
and the whole thing is being telecast
anyway, it's on television.
Why on earth
would you be trying to block
this poor bloke from getting a couple
of photos?
But it's just the ridiculousness
of how things happen in China.
Sometimes the word goes out
to these more lowly, um, you know,
party officials, and
they just do what they've got to do,
no matter how ridiculous it is.
Stephen, you make me laugh.
I mean, you and I
have known each other for decades.
I mean, back to when I was
a correspondent in Beijing as well.
And I remember
during these moments of these parades
being sort of sequestered blocks
and blocks away
and having to watch the whole event
on TV, but you could sort of hear
the tanks rumbling by
and the aircraft going overhead.
I mean, it really was
kind of an amazing thing to cover.
I'm a bit jealous
that you're doing it from China.
One other thing while you mention it.
The funny thing, of course, I've
been having practice runs for this.
And so there we are.
Like on the weekend.
You're sitting there Saturday night
and you're you're flattened.
It's all shaking because
the tanks are coming down the road
and we stick our heads out the window
and they're practicing.
And then you get this knock
on the door from the cops.
Don't take photos, don't take photos.
But I mean, goodness knows why.
Because, like I say, it is all going
to be on television anyway.
Ah, amazing.
Um. All right. Well, Mikey Kay,
great to have you here with me.
It's nice to have a face to,
to look at directly.
Um, you know, you have a completely
different perspective on this,
I would guess.
What is the moment that made
you sit up and pay attention
when you were watching this spectacle
taking place in China's capital?
Yeah, it was
it was pretty remarkable, actually.
I run the BBC news security brief
on the channel.
I've got 30 years in counterterrorism,
counterinsurgency, ten combat tours,
20 years in the military, and
then ten reporting from war zones.
Um, and what I, what I really focused
on was, yes, there's obviously
a big uptick in terms of having these
three leaders sat watching this parade,
which to me tells me
there's an evolution
of an alliance that's occurring here
right under the West nose.
And it's been happening for some
time. But the big thing for me was
just the sheer volume of military
capability that was on display.
And the bits that really interest me
is not necessarily
the legacy equipment that they've got,
but what's new, what's out there.
So, for example, these these
autonomous drones that sit on the
on the wing of manned fast jets, um,
the size of these intercontinental
ballistic missiles
that now have the capability
of reaching the US.
And that's all a statement, you know,
that's all that's all there on purpose.
None of this is by mistake.
And you look at the sheer numbers
of the the People's Liberation Army
in terms of numbers of troops,
numbers of tanks, artillery.
Um, you look
at the aircraft in the air,
um, you know,
Russia, Russia, China and,
and North Korea
are cementing something here,
which the West has relied on for
a long time in terms of an alliance.
But when it comes to alliances,
you can sort of see fragmentations
in where the West are now going
with NATO,
which is, uh,
which inception was in 1949.
And now we see
a strength building an alliance
which which isn't going to be good
for the West.
I mean, it's amazing, right?
We're entering into this new era
of military parades,
where superpowers like the US and
China are putting all their hardware,
all their toys
on display for us to see.
I mean, what's it like to see those
things just literally being paraded
in front of our eyes?
Yeah. Well, I mean, Donald
Trump attempted it a few months ago,
and I think he's he's probably
regretting that now when you look
at the size
and sort of spectacle that,
um, that China has just put on
versus, you know,
what the, what the US did a couple
of months ago.
I mean, the UK
would never do something like that.
I do think there is sometimes
strength in silence.
Um, and I don't I don't want to
sort of, you know, shock the pigeons
at this point because, yeah,
the volume is,
is significant and it's,
it's quite startling.
But when it comes to sort of
real analysis of military capability,
you've just got to look at the
technology inside what you're seeing.
And I think that's where
the huge differences occur.
And we can we can come on
to that a little bit later.
So those are the parades. And all
of you have given a great overview of
what it's like to witness a parade,
and also the messaging that could lie
behind this parade and others
that you've seen.
But I want to focus for a moment away
from the hardware and and onto the men,
mostly men
who were watching this parade.
The invited guests
and three in particular
have really caught our attention.
We've got XI Jinping,
the leader of China,
we've got Vladimir Putin,
the leader of Russia,
and we've got Kim Jong un
from North Korea.
I just wonder if we can turn to you,
Stephen. First, you know,
to that end, I wonder if you can give
us a sense of XI Jinping and and
how he's seen domestically and also
abroad what he was trying to achieve
by hosting this massive global event
in front of the TV cameras.
Well, a C Jinping
is interesting in a way,
in that he's a real mystery man.
I mean, he gives very little away.
People don't know
what music he likes, really.
Does he play sport? Apparently
he plays ping pong or something.
I've never seen him do it.
Um, you never see him crack a joke?
Do you know what I mean?
He barely cracks a smile.
And when you compare him to other
Chinese leaders like Jiang Zemin
and, um, Deng Xiaoping sticking
cowboy hats on and carrying on,
and I mean Jiang Zemin showing off
his other languages, etc.,
he, I mean, Hu Jintao
just before she was pretty wooden.
And she I mean,
he's not given anything away,
but one thing he is
and that's feared.
And I think he probably likes that
because when he came in, there was
this huge anti-corruption crackdown.
He used it to take out
all his political enemies.
And so within the party,
you know, man,
no, you know, no one's going
to really take it up to him.
And I think part of the criticism
of this style of leadership
is that he's surrounded by yes men
and they are mostly all men.
The Politburo Standing Committee,
for example, no women there,
and he's appointed his old friends
to the Politburo Standing Committee.
The other factions
aren't represented there anymore.
So that's kind of what he's like. Um,
as for ordinary people,
well, they call him XI Dada.
It's kind of
an affectionate name for him.
Um, I guess it it it sounds it's,
I guess in one way you could think of it
as, like, Big XI, but it's more
like Uncle XI or something like that.
It's kind of affectionate.
Um, while we're talking about it,
I should say ordinary
Chinese people have some nicknames
for the other leaders
you're speaking about.
Um, tell us please.
In Sampang is a beauty.
Kim Fatty Kim the third
or Kim Fatty the third?
It should be. It's a reference
to him being the third, Kim.
And of course, the size of him,
etcetera. And even here,
Chinese government officials calling
him that secret little sampang.
You know, Kim Fatty the third, um,
and for Vladimir Putin,
um, it's um, poo daddy,
but which is like calling him
emperor, Emperor Putin?
He doesn't get it as much as, um,
as Jin Sang.
But everyone calls
Kim Jong UN Jin sambong here.
Not little kids
to probably people on the Politburo.
Let's turn then to hear about Fattie Kim
the third, for lack of a better term.
As some some
in China might call him mean Gene.
Take us through, uh, the spectacle
of Kim Jong UN arriving in Beijing.
And really, what he's been trying
to achieve during his time in China.
Yeah. I mean, look, as Stephen said,
Kim, the third is because,
of course, he is the third, uh,
in this family dynasty
of rulers that have ruled North Korea
since sort of just a few years
after the Second World War.
Uh, so it was his grandfather first,
then it was his father,
and then he took over
when he was only 27 years old,
because his father died
quite unexpectedly.
And so he had to consolidate power
really quite quickly.
And it was sort of people talked
about whether he was going to be
quite a weak leader, because he really
hadn't been sort of groomed enough.
He hadn't been put in the public eye
because his father died so unexpectedly.
But actually he proved
himself to be remarkably ruthless,
and he consolidated power
very effectively,
purging anybody who would rival him,
even his uncle.
And so he has really continued
this authoritarian dictatorship
that North Korea has, um, you know,
probably one of the most authoritarian
countries in the world, right, where
people it's people are more restricted
than anywhere else in the world.
Um, now, in terms of what he wanted
to achieve in Beijing, I mean,
because of the ruthlessness
of the Kim dictatorship,
North Korea is
an incredibly isolated country.
It has been treated
as a pariah not only by the West,
but by countries like China
and Russia in the past as well,
and and almost completely isolated.
Now, some of that
has been Kim's doing, but,
um, it's left him
very few places to turn, uh,
because North Korea is just now
incredibly heavily sanctioned.
Um, but what we've seen
over the last couple of years
is him forge this relationship
with Vladimir Putin, right?
Because he has been supporting
Putin's war in Ukraine,
and that really helped him come
out of isolation because
the Covid years were really,
really difficult for North Korea,
because Kim essentially shut all
the borders and they were so scared
about Covid getting in. This is
such a poor and isolated country
with absolutely no medical system
that could have coped with it.
Uh, that kind of basically brought
the economy to its knees.
So then Putin gave Kim this
opportunity to come out of isolation.
The war in Ukraine was like this lottery
ticket essentially for Kim Jong un,
because he was able to start selling
Putin these vast amounts of weapons
and sending all these soldiers and
getting huge amounts of money in return.
Um, but Kim never likes to be reliant
on one person, and
he has become increasingly reliant on
this relationship with Vladimir Putin.
And, you know, with discussions
about the war ending and things.
And it's been
quite a transactional relationship,
albeit a very lucrative one.
I think Kim's mind has very much been
on, well, what happens next?
And so it was very unusual actually,
for him to go to Beijing.
This is the first time
we've ever seen him go to, uh,
an international event like this
with many world leaders.
He's only ever really left
the country to go and meet leaders
like XI or like Putin one on one.
He does this so rarely.
Everything's very controlled.
It's very calculated.
So putting him on a stage
like we saw him yesterday, that was
a big risk for the North Koreans.
But the calculation
I think was twofold.
One was because he is aware that he
needs to try to repair and rekindle
his relationship with China, which
has slightly fallen by the wayside
because of his relationship
with Vladimir Putin.
And he is aware that he needs now
more economic support from the Chinese.
He needs to keep XI onside.
She obviously wanted him to be there.
The invitation went out. Um,
and then I think there was
a calculation that actually I am sure
he would have got assurances
in advance.
Stephen can tell me otherwise
that he would be given
this prominent position, that
he would have gone on that basis.
So a chance
to really try to establish himself
as this kind of powerful statesman
alongside XI,
alongside Putin, you know,
at the helm of these world leaders
gathering in order to send a message
to the West,
but particularly in the United States,
which is North Korea's main adversary,
that actually
he isn't isolated anymore.
He's in this strong position.
He has the backing of XI and Putin,
and therefore he's he's
basically buying himself leverage
if he is ever to try to negotiate
with the West again.
You're absolutely right.
As they were walking along together,
it was like a phalanx of leaders
in order of priority,
XI Jinping at the front
and Vladimir Putin on one side
and Kim Jong un on the other.
Before we move on,
Gina, I want to ask you, though,
about someone that
Kim Jong UN brought along with him.
You know, with the with the nod
to North Korea's future.
I think she might be
the youngest member
of an official delegation who's
been visiting Beijing this week.
Can you tell me about her?
Yeah.
So we were all pretty surprised at Celia
when we saw these photos that came out
when Kim was getting off the train,
when it entered Beijing,
because his daughter was standing
behind him.
His young daughter.
Now, we don't know how old she is.
We think she might be around
about 12. Um,
but he, we think is grooming her
to be his successor.
So he introduced her
to the public about three years ago.
And we've just seen her grow
in stature ever since.
So she first attended this missile
launch with him back in 2022.
And ever since, she's gone to more
and more high profile events
and she's been given more
and more prominent placement next
to her father,
even in some cases being positioned
in these official photographs
in front of her father.
So it seems quite clear that
he is intending for her to take over,
or at least the South Korean
intelligence services are saying
they think that's their best bet.
Um, there was a lot of discussion
around, well, why on earth
would he be introducing her to the
world when she's only 12 years old?
Um, or younger
when he actually first did it.
But if we look at the way that
Kim Jong UN came to power, as I said,
which was very rushed,
uh, his father died suddenly.
He wasn't really kind of consolidated
and built up in this way.
And he very,
very quickly had to consolidate
his power by being very ruthless.
He had an incredibly hard time,
we imagine.
And the explanation is that actually,
he knows how miserable that is,
and he doesn't want that
for his eventual successor.
Now, let's turn our attention to a man
who's been leading Russia for years now.
Vladimir Putin's been smiling a lot
in Beijing at the moment.
Take us through his motivations
and what he's been trying to achieve
by his visit to China.
Yeah. Over these few days, we
were discussing it with colleagues.
And it's interesting, you know,
to just just to hear
how the both internal and external
messages for all three leaders, China
and North Korea and Russia,
resonate with each other.
Sometimes they are completely identical.
It was interesting for me to see
how XI Jinping was trying to position
himself as a world leader, etc..
Mr. Putin says exactly that, that he is
now a leader of this alternative world,
this alternative to the West reality,
leader of the global South,
sort of the gatherer
of the global South.
That's exactly what Mr.
Putin was aiming for.
I mean, his ambitions were bigger,
uh, initially,
but he had to, I guess,
scale them down a little bit.
So now he what he definitely wants is
the new old world order.
So he is not happy with the
world order where West prevails. Uh,
many times in his interviews, he said
that he's a fan of the Soviet Union,
that the, you know, the, the end
of the Soviet Union was, as he said,
the greatest geopolitical catastrophe
of the 20th century.
So he definitely tries to rebuild it
in some shape or form.
And, uh, the shape which works now,
it seems, is building is,
is gathering the global south, uh,
and sort of putting it as,
as auntie does,
sort of just just as a counterbalance
to the global West.
And that's exactly what
he is trying to project.
And yeah, in Russian media,
he was being shown as, as,
as the leader of that gathering, even
though he was visiting, uh, China.
Of course. Russia.
Russia wants to show that he's, uh,
he's the the biggest mastermind
behind it.
Mike, we haven't heard from you
in a little while.
We've we've just heard
kind of the individual overview
of what these three men were bringing
to these events in Beijing, what
was going on through their minds and
what was on their individual agendas.
But looking at the big picture,
the military picture,
you know, we have three nuclear armed
dictators all standing in a row,
seemingly forging some new alliance.
Really? I mean,
what's your assessment of that?
What does it really mean?
Yeah, I spent 20 years in the British
military on on many NATO operations
and threat assessments
at the tactical and strategic level
really formed a big part of the way
that you conducted operations.
And for me, a key driver
within this evolving alliance are
the individual country
threat assessments
and what they might be facing
at the moment.
So, for example, I think the person
that is driving this, the country
that is driving this reliance
at the moment is Putin and Russia.
So, for example, Russia
has outsourced a significant amount
of its drone capability to China.
Um, when you look at how many drones
are being utilised on both sides,
but particularly Russia against Ukraine,
over 6000in the month of July alone.
So that's significant
and that's hurting Ukraine hard.
Um, if you then look at the, uh,
reliance on Putin with Kim,
um, Kim has provided over 15000 troops
that were deployed inside Russia
on the Ukrainian border at the moment,
not just troops, ballistic missiles,
for example,
that have been launched on Kyiv.
So that for me, is the two
key reliance drivers between Putin
and XI when it comes to Kim.
What is he getting out of this
in terms of threat assessment?
Well, there's not
a major threat assessment, you know,
a real time against North Korea
at the moment.
However, this alliance will be able
to improve Kim's standing
in terms of the way
that XI and Putin treat him.
So, you know, Kim is providing troops
inside inside Russia.
He'll be able to be able to say
to XI, look, we can support you with.
He's got 1.3 million troops,
for example.
He's got a lot of military capability
in terms of ballistic missiles.
Um, how good that is.
That's another question.
But in terms of volume,
that's what Kim can do.
So I think that is the thing that is
driving and involving this alliance
at the moment are
the individual threat assessments.
And when it comes to XI,
specifically,
Taiwan is a is a is
a massive threat assessment,
because if if China wants
to be aggressive towards Taiwan,
it knows obviously the US military
why an $870 billion defense budget?
11 aircraft carriers potential for
home basing in Japan and South Korea.
You know, that's going to be
a significant problem for XI.
So I think she is now using
this relationship to be able to lean
on North Korea if he needs to,
and lean on
on Putin and Russia if he needs to.
So I think
there's a number of components there
where this alliance piece is,
is beneficial for all three.
So this alliance, though,
I mean, Jean mentioned it earlier,
it was such an amazing scene
to see these three men
all in a row,
really with with Russia and China,
those two leaders treating Kim
Jong un almost as if he was an equal.
If you're Donald Trump sitting
in the white House,
I can't believe
we haven't mentioned him until now.
But, you know,
would you see that apparent alliance
as an increased threat?
Do you think that that threat, that
risk assessment has really gone up
in the minds of of Americans and
other Western countries, NATO countries.
I mean, in the eyes of Donald Trump,
who's a, you know,
has transactional foreign policy,
who's very much taken
an isolationist approach
in terms of stepping away from NATO.
Um, it may not resonate with them,
but I can tell you it will certainly
resonate with the leaders in Europe
and the members of NATO
outside of the US, for sure.
You know, NATO's inception
was in 1949,
and and there has been relative global
peace, you know, for over 75 years.
The idea that NATO is now being
fragmented in terms of Trump's lack
of reliance in supporting NATO when
it comes to the fight against Russia
in Ukraine,
you know, that's that's huge.
Um, and he'll also be looking at,
you know, Pete Hegseth,
who's the defense secretary. Um, and
JD Vance have been very aggressive
in terms of the posturing on Taiwan.
And so, um, you know, if I was
Donald Trump, if I was JD Vance,
if I was Pete Hegseth,
I'd be looking at this alliance
and it would be playing a huge factor
into any military contingency planning
on how they might counter
any aggression from China on Taiwan,
because that's going to be a
naval sea based operation primarily.
You know, those 11 aircraft carriers
that the US have
will be absolutely critical in
any countering of military aggression
from China
in terms of power projection.
You've then got four bases
in Okinawa.
They will be absolutely critical
for use by Donald Trump
to counter any aggression
that then is going to pull in Japan.
And so there's all
of these counter consequences that,
you know, if I was if I was
in the cabinet in the US,
I would be directing military
generals to be working up a lot
of counter
contingency planning proposals,
courses of action that now see not
just China entering the aggression,
but a reliance of China
on North Korea and Russia.
And then that sort of expands
the military capability and
what the US has to do to counter that
in a really significant way.
Do you know, I'd like to bring you in
here. You know,
just to reflect
on what Mike has just been saying,
you know, he referenced Kim Jong un
several times
and North Korea's position.
Can you reflect a little bit on,
on on how North Korea's
military position has changed,
even just in
the last couple of years?
Kim Jong UN
has really prioritized building up
North Korea's nuclear program. Right.
The reason that North Korea is
so isolated is so poor.
It's such an international pariah.
It's because it developed,
um, nuclear weapons
against international treaties.
And that is
why it's been so heavily sanctioned.
But Kim Jong UN
has really prioritized growing
North Korea's military,
um, program and nuclear program.
So in 2021,
he set out this five year plan
for all the things that he wanted
to achieve over the last five years.
And he has almost completed it.
So, uh, he,
he has sort of forged ahead,
regardless
of all these sanctions on developing
very powerful ballistic missiles
that can carry nuclear warheads.
And continuing his, um, building up
his stockpile of nuclear warheads.
Um, and so North Korea is
in a stronger position
militarily really,
than it has ever been.
And yet the sanctions aren't working
because it's now getting this cover
from countries like Russia and China,
which are in turn just allowing it to
build its nuclear program even further.
Um, can I just add to that? I mean,
there are three key components
that are required to develop
a nuclear capability.
The first one is, um, having the ability
to enrich uranium or plutonium.
The second one is to build a warhead.
And the third one is a delivery system.
In order to put that warhead
with the enriched uranium
and plutonium onto a target.
And at the moment, in order for North
Korea to become a threat to the US,
that needs an intercontinental
ballistic missile capability.
And that's the that's the long pole
in the tent, if you like.
That's the bottleneck in terms
of what North Korea is facing
on the nuclear front.
Thanks for watching this video.
And for more in-depth explainers
like this one,
just search for the Global
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