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Flying in a climate-neutral way:
How long do we have to wait?
The next few decades
are the important ones,
because we want to reach
our climate goals by 2050.
More and more passengers
are conscious
about their CO² footprint.
We will need renewable hydrogen fuel.
There's no clear timeline
today for when it will happen.
Flying is considered the most
climate-damaging form of travel.
It accounts for 3.5%
of global CO² emissions.
And this doesn't include
the environmental impact
of contrails, nitrogen oxides and soot.
The CO² emissions only make up
about one third of the
climate impact of aviation.
The other two thirds can actually
be attributed to non CO² effects.
These are processes in the
atmosphere and chemical reactions.
In 2023 there were
38 million flights worldwide —
and air traffic keeps growing.
Does that mean
the situation is hopeless?
I guess it won't be
easy to find an answer.
I'm travelling through Germany
to speak with scientists,
industry experts and critics.
The projections basically continue
what we've seen in the last decades,
that the aviation sector is very
much connected to economic growth.
And thus, the aviation sector
has seen continued growth
in the last three decades
and is projected to do so.
So we not only need to decarbonize
the current fuel demand
and aviation sector,
but also anything that
comes on top in the next decades
due to the growth.
So 50% of citizens worldwide
have never been on a plane.
So how could you dare to tell them
not to fly and see the world as we did?
And the future of aviation
is absolutely, closely, 100%
linked to sustainability.
Hydrogen is the great promise
for environmentally friendly flying,
since it emits only water vapor.
In the summer of 2023,
the first manned flight of an aircraft
powered by liquid hydrogen took place.
The plane was launched
by German developer H2FLY
in Maribor, Slovenia.
There was a total of four
test flights, one of which lasted
over three hours.
The future of flying is being
developed right here in the heart
of Stuttgart, where H2FLY is located.
H2FLY was founded in 2015.
The company develops propulsion
systems of the future for aircraft.
We have the hydrogen as a
fuel in the hydrogen storage system,
and then we use that
hydrogen directly in a fuel cell
to convert the energy of the
hydrogen into electric energy.
That electric energy is used in
an electric motor with a propeller
or a fan to have the propulsion done.
There have already been
several prototypes of hydrogen
powered manned aircraft.
Take, for example, the so-called eVTOL aircraft
from the US company Joby Aviation,
now the parent company of H2FLY.
Their goals are ambitious.
We have applications which
go into a 40 seater,
where we push into the commercial aviation
to understand first what the requirements are,
then to build the qualification base,
to show the functionality,
to demonstrate functionality in flight.
And then to build a product.
We think it will be possible to fly
in a 40-seater before the end of the decade.
Emission-free propulsion
could be ready in a few years
for smaller passenger aircraft.
Well, but what about the big planes?
Major aircraft manufacturers like
Airbus have various concepts for what
the large aircraft of
the future could look like.
But they all have one thing in common:
hydrogen-electric propulsion.
The original goal of developing
larger hydrogen powered passenger
aircraft ready to hit the market
by 2035 has been walked back
for the time being – at least at Airbus.
The long haul traffic, that’s the
traffic beyond 4,000 kilometers,
it’s only 5%, 6 % of the flights worldwide,
But it’s more than 50% of the total emissions.
And battery electric or
hydrogen aircraft will not be able,
for the next two to three decades,
to transport 300 passengers
in a reasonable way up to 6-8,000 kilometers.
That’s not going to happen.
Technically, I'm pretty
much convinced it will happen.
It will be possible.
But the question is whether there is a
commercial viable model behind it.
The one thing is to develop the
technology as we do and push forward.
But on the other side, at the end
of the decade, we will need
a tremendous amount
of green hydrogen
to propel those systems.
Now it’s a little bit of a chicken
and egg problem we have to solve.
Because without the fuel,
we will not have the
technology on the market.
I think for large scale
deployment of hydrogen
it will take another few decades.
There are many challenges.
Hydrogen requires a lot
of energy to be produced and there
are logistical issues.
The challenge for hydrogen is
that it requires a completely new
infrastructure and supply chain behind it.
Because everything is based
on the supply of fossil kerosene.
So airplanes would need
to be built in a different way,
and the infrastructure at the
airports need to change
to accommodate for this new fuel.
Research into this infrastructure
is being conducted in Hamburg.
The hydrogen aviation lab is
located next to the Hamburg airport.
It's operated by Lufthansa,
Germany's largest airline.
Many airlines have a strong
interest in modernizing their fleets,
if only for cost reasons.
Here in Hamburg,
this retired A320 is used to research
hydrogen powered aviation.
The heart of the lab is
located inside the fuselage.
We are not allowed to film details.
It's still top secret.
I do see a potential.
First of all, I really admire all these innovations
and the engineers working in this field.
So I really think there will be big
progress over the years to come.
But it's limited to short haul
traffic and it's limited to only
a couple of passengers
on board of the plane.
Because hydrogen is volume intense.
You need more space
for hydrogen to be transported.
And more space for the fuel, so to speak,
means less space for passengers.
So you have smaller planes —
nine, ten, fifteen passengers on board.
And this is not economically feasible.
Because at the end of the day,
the passengers have to pay
the high prices for such a small plane.
Everybody needs to learn hydrogen.
We have known hydrogen
for a long time
at Hamburg Airport.
But authorities need to learn;
the whole infrastructure needs to learn,
aviation needs to learn
and most importantly the passengers
need to have confidence in hydrogen.
Because it’s nonsense to have a new fuel
and nobody wants to fly with it.
Climate-friendly and affordable flying with hydrogen?
That will take some time.
Is there a sustainable path for
air travel that can be taken now —
or at least faster?
What about aircraft CO² emissions?
Can we expect rapid improvements?
The green transition is going to work.
First of all, all manufactures are working on
less fuel efficient and by
that less CO² emitting aircraft.
And airlines are working on fleet modernization
because less fuel burn is in their major interest.
So at the same moment,
they have less CO² emissions up in the air.
Right now, the most environmentally friendly
aircraft in operation is the Airbus A 350.
Thanks to modern engines
and lighter construction,
it consumes only 2.5 liters of kerosene
per passenger per 100 kilometers.
This means it emits 25% less CO²
than its predecessors.
Lower consumption is one aspect.
And then there is the so-called
SAF, sustainable aviation fuel.
SAF is an unconventional fuel,
sometimes produced from organic waste
or renewable raw materials.
Inherent is a chance, an opportunity,
that the greenhouse gas emissions
of the sustainable aviation fuel
are 80% less than conventional fuel.
And also the non CO² emissions,
which can be seen as contrails up in the sky.
Sustainable aviation fuel propelled
aircraft produce less contrails.
So there is a massive, massive chance
that sustainable aviation fuel makes a huge impact.
It's a drop-in fuel.
You can use it.
You don't have to set up
hydrogen infrastructure at airports,
which doesn't exist.
What do you think of SAF – Sustainable Aviation Fuel?
Is it a solution or an illusion?
Sustainable aviation fuels can be green if we ensure
that all the inputs needed for the
production of them are sustainable.
For example, using renewable electricity.
Or using sustainable CO² sources by, for example,
capturing it from air or using biogenic sources.
Hope for the future.
Currently, Airbus aircraft
can be fueled with upto 50% SAF.
This share is to be increased to 100% by 2030.
But there is a major catch: the
large amount of energy required
to produce synthetic fuel.
This is a huge electricity demand.
For example, to cover the fuel demand
of the aviation sector in Germany,
which is, I think, about 385,000 terajoule in 2020
to cover this completely with these synthetic fuels
it would require over 35,000 onshore wind turbines,
which is a lot.
And I think that relates to about 21 nuclear power plants.
It’s a fact: Zero-emission aviation is far off.
Sustainability takes many small steps.
One of them is the Net Zero 2035 project.
The issue of CO² reduction
doesn't just affect aircraft.
Flying also involves airports.
Hamburg Airport is aware of the problem.
With the Net Zero 2035 project,
the Airport has a clear goal.
The Net Zero project – what is it actually?
What's the idea behind all that?
The basic idea is to bring our
airport operations to net zero
or fossil-free operations.
This means that everything that emits CO², fossil CO²,
is going to be reduced to zero.
So that we have basically net zero CO² emissions.
The passenger stairways are solar-powered.
All vehicles are being converted
to electric and hydrogen power.
While climate management systems in
all buildings are being modernized.
They’re also building a wind farm
to supply all of the airport's energy.
Our base here is 2009.
Since then we have reduced
something like 80 to 85% of
our CO² emissions already.
Does it pay off for the airport?
Does it pay off for the climate not to do it?
Flying in the future will likely be
greener, but probably more expensive.
So what's your take?
Will you fly like nothing's changed,
cut back or quit flying for good?
Feel free to leave a comment.
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