By
Viewed
309,832
Please choose the correct answer for each question below:
Questions: 0/461
Correct: 0
Translate:
There have been at least six incursions
by Russian air assets into NATO airspace
in just the past 2 months, including the
flight of 19 Russian drones into Polish
airspace. Just this week, Polish fighter
jets have launched twice to intercept
Russian intelligence aircraft flying
over the Baltic Sea without
transponders. So, what is Russia's game
plan? How does NATO defend? And just how
dangerous a moment is this in terms of
escalation? He's Mikey Kate, former RAF
pilot and military planner. I'm
Christian Fraser. We'll break it all
down for you. This is the security
brief.
[Music]
>> Mikey, this game of cat and mouse that
the Russians are playing with the West,
that's been ongoing since NATO's
inception in 1949. What's different
about this period that we're in now? I
think it's twofold, Christian. I think
the first part is that incursions by
Russian jets inside NATO sovereign
airspace have been ratcheted up
considerably. But then also you've got
the tensions of Russia's consistent
bombardment of Ukraine with drones,
cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and
hypersonic missiles. Let's take a listen
to the Polish foreign minister
addressing an emergency UN Security
Council meeting.
>> I have only one request to the Russian
government. If another missile or
aircraft enters our space without
permission, deliberately or by mistake
and gets shot down and the wreckage
falls on NATO territory, please don't
come here to whine about it. You have
been warned.
>> Can we look at those latest incursions?
What do you see in them? Yeah, I think
what's we will um what's notable about
them are sort of the variety of
situations in which breaches uh are
taking place. Um let's take a look. So
the first one I want to address was back
in May. It was a SU35 Russian jet uh
that was effectively doing a show of
force inside Estonian territorial waters
in the Gulf of Finland. And it was doing
that because Russia had a shadow tanker.
It's one of these tankers that are being
used to circumn sanctions. Uh, and the
SU35 was doing a show of force because
Estonian maritime naval security forces
were trying to apprehend the tanker.
>> Is there anything unusual about that?
>> I mean, not so much in what's called
QRA, quick reaction alert. It was only
one SU35
that breached Estonian airspace.
Traditionally, when you have quick
reaction alert, whether it's NATO or
whether it's Russia, they'll always
launch as a pair. So, two aircraft. And
the reason for that is mutual support,
especially if they're going into
something that's potentially
confrontational.
>> But then we had these Russian drones
coming into Polish airspace.
>> Yeah. Significant amount, 19 of them,
um, unannounced, called the Gerber
drone. I think we can take a look at
that. Now, this is similar in shape,
Christian, to what's called the Garand
2. The Garand 2 was a drone that was
made off an Iranian um, blueprint called
the Shahed 136. The thing about the
Gerber is it's got a smaller payload and
it's made out of polystyrene and
plywood. Now, from the Gerbras that have
been shot down and analyzed, the big
analysis comes basically is it's a tenth
cheaper to make this Gerbra drone. So,
you've got additional drones that can
just be used alongside the Garand 2s.
The Gerantos are longer range, bigger
payload, more deadly if you like, but it
just throws more drones up there and
overwhelms air defenses. But then you've
got these these three Russian jets
inside Estonian airspace. Inside
Estonian airspace. These were three MiG
31 Foxhound aircraft. Massively
significant because they've got a speed
of about Mac 2.8. So they're incredibly
fast. Important to note that that speed
does come down depending on the weapons
fit of the aircraft. But the big thing
here is that it was 12 minutes inside
sovereign airspace with their
transponders turned off. Now, let's just
talk to the audience here about what a
transponder is. It's a small box in the
cockpit. Every aircraft has has them,
both military and general air traffic,
which are the airlines that we fly. And
it allows the pilots of the crew to put
in a fourdigit code. That four-digit
code is usually given to them by uh area
radar. And then what comes up, it's
called secondary surveillance radar,
will pick up the four-digit code on the
area radar screen and then they can
possibly identify the jet. It's not just
about identifying its location. This box
has the ability under what's called Mo
Charlie to put a height on there as
well. So none of that information was on
there. The jets will have been picked up
through primary radar. So just come up
as a little blip.
>> And then two Russian aircraft in
Lithuanian airspace.
>> Yeah, this was this was less of a
threat. It was a SU30 Russian fighter
jet and it was actually tanking off the
back of what's called an illusion 78,
which is a Russian tanker. um that was
only 700 meters inside Lithu Lithuanian
airspace and it was only there for about
18 seconds and that was down in Russia's
exclave region called Kinenrad. So in
terms of threat posture uh likely a
mistake um however you know inside
sovereign airspace nevertheless
>> nonetheless
what all this shows is that the tempo is
increasing. Yeah, it is. Um, the tempo
is increasing. The same day as the Sue30
and the Illusian 78, there were two
Russian fighter jets that violated an
economic security zone over a Polish
drilling uh platform uh inside the
Baltic Sea. Well, let's talk about the
latest incursions uh that took place
this week over the Baltic Sea. Uh
Russian reconnaissance flights
intercepted twice by Polish uh fighters.
Uh we can speak to General Diminoski.
He's the vice chief of defense in
Poland. Thank you very much for being
with us on the security brief. What can
you tell us about these latest
incursions and how the Polish Air Force
responded?
>> As the foreigners, good afternoon. Thank
you very much for having me. Now
answering your question, of course,
Polish responded according to the our
national and allied procedures which are
implemented in integrated air defense
system and we sent off our uh quick
reaction alert
[Music]
aircraft which intercepted and escorted
the the Russian reconnaissance aircraft.
They have not violated our airspace.
There was no in incursion. However, they
uh didn't fly according to the flight
plan and they uh cause uh also threat to
the air traffic because they have uh
they transporters turned off.
>> It's not just military assets. We've had
Lithuanian airspace closed this week by
smuggling balloons, helium balloons um
launched from areas that are in control
of the Belucian, the Bellarusian KGB. Um
NATO says it's time to hit back, but
what does that actually mean
practically? You know, what is an
effective proportionate response that
would deter these kind of hybrid attacks
without sort of triggering an
escalation?
>> That's a very good question and it is
kind of challenge for us as NATO because
Russia is has never been onedirectional
and one-dimensional. They always been
multi-directional, multi-dimensional. So
our response should be exactly the same
and they will apply different type of
assets as you said there will be uh
military assets there will be some kind
of service assets or maybe civilian
assets just to cause uh problems for us
for for NATO. So our response should be
uh multi-layered I would say. So first
and foremost we should u be very robust
firm but at the same time resolute with
our military response and so we always
should react in a very uh very at the
speed of relevance very quick and very
fast. Then of course there's additional
layer about building up our capabilities
along the eastern flank and and around
our key military and civilian
infrastructure. So it will be a little
bit bit longer term uh endeavor just to
boost up our uh air defense capabilities
and finally we will have some kind of
strategic response which will be uh a
coupling of political diplomatic
strategic messaging and at the same time
building up strategic capabilities uh
not only to show Russia our deterrence
by denial but also to show Russia our
strength and if necessary
possibility of use other assets to to
protect our sovereignity and to protect
our territory.
>> Just just just on that point, General,
we just played a clip of the the Polish
foreign minister saying, "Don't whine uh
within the Security Council if we shoot
down one of your jets." I I mean, do you
feel in a military capacity that you
have a green light to shoot down one of
these jets if you were pushed to the
furthest extent?
>> Well, the primary task of the Polish
armed forces and the alliance is to
protect and defend our territorian
sovereignity and we will always follow
the rules and procedures so uh uh in
order to achieve this uh primary task
and we'll always act according by the
books. But whenever there is a very
important a very deep incursion into
Polish territory or revel territory we
will act accordingly. So we will uh take
all the measures to stop the the danger
and stop the traffic threat.
>> General it's it's Mikey again. Um former
RAF pilot. I've flown in Typhoon. Uh I
understand the graduated and
proportionate options that are available
to not just UK fighter pilots on quick
reaction alert but to any fighter pilots
across NATO defense uh that are in this
position. Um unless the Russians know
that the graduated and proportionate
response can be up to and inclus
including the use of lethal force. Um,
how do you how do you portray or how do
you deliver that intent to Putin to let
him know that actually you actually will
take what is necessary which can include
the shooting down of a jet. How do you
deliver that message?
>> That's a very tough question again
because it is all about strategic
communication. So it is about feelings
and perception not about physical
actions. We can only show show our uh
determination by training and exercises
and the posture of our forces. So as I
said we have to be very determined and
resolved in our reactions and we show we
have to show them that we can act at the
speed of relevance that we can hear they
can we can see them and we have assets
ready to respond and it it should be
always act according to the books but we
should be always following their actions
showing our readiness and of course the
rest is kind of the per perception and
part of the story is also unity among
our allies that there is one uh
united message sent to Mr. Putin that we
are united and will act together and we
are showing that to Russia already
because we have a great support here
with Poland from our allies in enhancing
our air defense both from the air
airborne assets and groundbased assets.
So all together I think combining those
military exercises, military posture and
uh military missions together with a
strong strategic communication, we might
be uh able to get across our message to
Mr. Putin and to Kremlin.
>> It's really interesting. General
Demanowski, it's really good to talk to
you. Thank you for coming on the
Security Brief.
>> Thank you very much for having me.
Mikey, there are obviously sensitive
defense reasons why the general can't go
into some of that detail. C. Can we can
we take a more in-depth look at what
assets NATO does have to deter the
Russians?
>> Yeah. Uh significant actually. Let's
start with with home territory uh in the
UK. Uh there's two bases. RAF Lossy
Mouth right in the north of Scotland.
That's called QR quick reaction alert
north. Uh and then there's a base in the
south called RAF Coningsby which is QR
South. And you'll have two typhoons uh
that swap effectively um periodically to
make sure or ensure that there is uh
quick reaction alert coverage 365 days
24/7 um basically protecting UK
sovereign airspace. Now in touch with
that or along with that you've got
Norway. Norway operates the F-35
fighters uh at a base called Eveness.
That's in the north of Norway. And I
think we can see on a map here just how
north that is. Now Norway's Norway's
geography is really interesting. It goes
all the way across the Northern Cape
across the top of Sweden and shares a
very small border with Russia. And what
you've got on there is what's called an
IATS, an integrated air defense network.
So you'll have Norwegian radars right on
the tip probing and looking out, looking
for Russian assets going west. they'll
pick them up and then what they'll do is
they'll effectively hand over to UK
radar and they'll they'll manage and
intercept on it. The Swedes have um two
air bases again, one in the north, one
in the south. Uh their quick reaction
alert jets are the JS39 Grippen. Uh and
then you've got Finland and as you'd
expect, Finland sharing a 1300 km border
with Russia. They've got four air bases
and they're operating the F-18. And
what's interesting about the F-18 is the
the Finns have become really adept at
operating these outside of airfields and
deploying them to forests so they can
operate off roads. Tell me about the
Typhoon because as you've just been
explaining to the general, you've flown
in them. So, what sort of capability do
they carry?
>> Yeah, I've flown alongside the pilots
looking at basically how they intercept
an aircraft all the way outside of
visual range. Um, and I think we can see
a picture of or a graphic of the J the
Typhoon jet here. Basically, it's a mix
of missiles. You've got a mix of
missiles that give it what's called BVR,
beyond visual r beyond visual range.
Typhoon, for example, is using the
medium missile that goes out to about
125 mil 25 miles. And then you'll have
shorter range uh missiles again
depending on the fit. That's called the
Azram. They can go out to about 5 to 20
km. And then there's a Mouser gun on the
side. So there are options depending on
how the um the range comes down.
>> Um let's take the the example of the
three MiGs that that came into Estonian
airspace
in terms of the options that the NATO
pilots have.
What do they have to respond to the
threat and and what are they looking at
when they're in the air? Yeah, it's a
great question and I've spoken to um
spoken to sources who are currently
flying QR in the UK um because the
scenarios now are quite different as you
pointed out earlier on in the program.
Um quick reaction alert and intercepts
have been going on for over 50 years.
It's when foreign aircraft or enemy
aircraft um are then coming and
loitering inside sovereign airspace. And
so if you speak to the QR pilots at the
moment, especially from the UK, it's a
graduated and proportionate response,
but it's deescalatory. Okay. So that the
last thing they want is one the UK guys
is want to provoke some form of response
that would escalate rapidly. So jets
will get airborne. Uh when we went out
into operation chessman in Poland, the
uh the British and the Swedish uh jets
were getting airborne without radar on.
The first thing they'll do is they'll
have a look at what arament the Russian
jets have. So if we take a look at this
picture of a MiG 31 Foxhound, that's
actually got a a Kinsel hypersonic
missile on it. Now that would deemed way
higher threat than if the MIG31 had
airto-air. Well, it's an airto ground
missile. It's a hypersonic. It's got
range. So, you know,
>> so it's not coming to engage aircraft.
It's looking at targets on the ground
>> potentially. And so,
>> so if you saw that as a as a as a NATO
pilot, you'd you'd have real concerns.
>> You'd have real concerns. So, you'd get
up close. You'd identify back to the
chain of command what missiles it had on
it. Um, if it had air-to-air missiles
and the and the MIG is pointing north,
leaving sovereign airspace, that's
deescalating. If it's got an airto
ground missile on it and it's heading in
towards say a major urban center, that
would be considered escalatory. And so
you know it's a very very gentle
sensitive operation to work out what the
proportionate response is going to be.
>> So beyond the QA QR procedure that
you're talking about we now have
operation sentry. I mean what what added
capability does that give to NATO?
>> Yeah operation eastern sententury. Um so
the Brits basically have now been flying
over Polish airspace typhoons with a
Voyager aircraft which is a tanker. Um
you have uh the French have basically
deployed three Rafale jets into Poland
against again air defense fighters.
Germany have contributed four typhoons.
Denmark have provided F-16 fighter jets.
But it's not just air assets we're
talking about. We're talking about
frigots. So Denmark have provided um
frigot as as well as Germany. And these
are air defense, right? So they got
really powerful air defense radars on
these frigots which again helps build
that common operational air picture, the
integrated air defense as we spoke
about.
>> Mikey, as ever, thank you very much.
That is it from the security brief. Just
a reminder, you can catch up on all the
episodes on YouTube. Next time we're
going to be looking at Donald Trump's
recent pronouncement on nuclear testing.
Uh maybe probing the concerns you have
if you've watched the House of Dynamite.
Food for thought. We'll see you next
time.
Related Songs