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This is the Cola Bay, a small stretch of
water at the center of a global race to
dominate the Arctic. From here, Russia
could mine the Arctic for oil, gas, and
minerals, export those resources, and
launch a nuclear weapon at anyone who
threatens its ambitions. This is where
Russia is storing part of the world's
largest icebreaker fleet designed to
plow its way through melting Arctic ice.
About 5 mi away is the Arctic's largest
shipping port, which could one day
export the resources Russia wants to
mine from the seabed. And 20 m north is
a naval base storing some of Russia's
most powerful nuclear submarines.
The Arctic is becoming very fast one of
the most interesting places on the
planet. Because of receding ice, there
are more resources that people are
eyeing to compete over, and there's a
number of countries that are looking at
uh exploiting them. This is why the Cola
Bay sits at the heart of Russia's fight
for the Arctic.
I went there in 2021. It's a beautiful
area, kind of rolling hills leading into
the Cola Bay, but more than that, it's a
very closed area. There's a lot of
military installations, a lot of places
that you can't go.
The Arctic is a sort of microcosm of
geopolitical tensions.
It's not as remote as it appears on the
map. The assumption is that the
potential for a conflict in the Arctic
is likely to happen first outside the
region and spill over to the region
rather than we will see a clash of
different countries in in the Arctic.
Russia's Arctic coastline stretches
nearly 15,000 m along the Arctic Ocean.
The Cola Bay sits in the northwest,
giving it strategic access to the Arctic
and North Atlantic oceans and
neighboring NATO countries. We've seen
this slow incremental militarization of
the Arctic. Russia wants to get to a
point where if it feels threatened in
its high north, it can react militarily.
Obviously, that creates a whole bunch of
new scenarios both for Moscow and for
the NATO neighbors that are right next
door.
The Northern Fleet is Russia's Arctic
Navy division, including some of the
most powerful weapons in its nuclear
triad.
One of the biggest arms of that nuclear
triad sits right in the Cola Bay. Russia
stores some of its nuclearpowered
submarines here, which can be used to
patrol icy waters and carry nuclear
missiles.
The northern fleet is basically
comprised of a lot of strategic
submarines that carry nuclear missiles.
This is basically their second strike
capacity.
That's essentially Russia's ability to
strike back if it was hit first by a
land-based nuclear attack. Because its
submarines are powered by nuclear
energy, they can carry out missions for
months at a time. If you're looking at a
Russian nuclearpowered sub, it could
probably stay out at sea indefinitely.
And the Arctic ice actually plays a key
role in Russia's nuclear deterrent
strategy since its submarines can hide
under the ice before attacking.
A lot of Russia's military thinking in
this area comes down to what is called a
bastion concept. So creating a fortress
right above the Cola Bay. And it uses
air defense, it uses various types of
submarines, it uses jet fighters as
well. And so what they're doing is
really kind of building out this very
integrated system of defenses to make
sure that their nuclear capable
submarines really stay protected.
Core to that strategy are Russia's ultra
powerful nuclear icebreaker ships, many
of which are stored here, giving them
easy access to the Arctic Ocean.
What they can do is with those ice
breakers practically travel almost
anywhere they want to. They can be
deployed at different times of the year,
breaking different grades of ice,
thickness of ice, and types of ice. For
comparison, Russia has around 40 ice
breakers at its disposal, while the US
has just three. Some icebreaker ships
are used by researchers to explore the
minerals beneath the melting sea ice,
and others are fitted out with weaponry
like cannons, guns, and missiles.
In the past, Ukraine was very important
in providing various parts for Russia's
ice breakers. Since the war started,
that no longer happens. In fact, one of
the plants that was building a motor for
a Russian icebreaker came under attack
by the Russians. So that kind of ended
those plans very quickly.
These ice breakers also need to sail in
front of any cargo ships passing through
the northern sea route. This trade route
between Asia and Europe is shorter than
going through the Suez Canal and it's
been opening up more in recent years
thanks to melting sea ice. When we look
at the Arctic and the infrastructure
there, it's very scarce. We have to
think dual use. One of the Russian major
objectives is to develop the northern
zero as this international maritime link
between you Asia, Europe and and
Northern America. But this will also
have military strategic importance.
Russia's port of Mormons is the largest
commercial port along the route and it's
one of the only deep water ports in the
Arctic that doesn't freeze over for
parts of the year. You need a deep sea
water port to really handle some of
these very big loads, especially when
we're talking about the kind of
resources that Russia wants to export.
While the US and EU have sanctioned
Russian coal, oil, and gas, Russia
recently opened a new port to serve a
different trading partner, its Asian
export markets.
They can take their coal from inside
Russia up to the shores of the Cola Bay
and then basically send them eastward to
China.
China wants to become more of an Arctic
player. So Russia is balancing keeping
its trading partner happy while not
allowing it too much control which
is really interesting. There has been
this cooperation growing between Russia
and China in the Arctic. Russia was
willing to put the Arctic card on the
table. For instance, when Ciin Ping was
visiting Moscow and say that they are
open to joint management of the northern
Syria, this is a big change.
So what does this all mean for the rest
of the world? Depends on who you ask. If
we're looking at NATO countries, I think
we're looking at a bunch of different
visions of how it should play out. I
think, you know, the United States has
expressed grand ambitions to buy
Greenland, for example.
Other NATO countries who have relied on
US military support are building up
their own military capabilities.
The Cola Bay, I think, really represents
Russia's ability to defend its Arctic
interests. It has all of the weapons
systems and capabilities that it needs
to make sure that it can control parts
of the Arctic that it considers to be
most important for itself.
On the trade front, Canada has said it
wants to build infrastructure along its
own Arctic trade route, the Northwest
Passage, but it's still years away from
becoming a reality. I was talking to the
CEO of a very large American arms
company the other day and he was saying
that the Arctic is always a place of
great potential, but it really depends
on whether or not the US follows through
on its plans or allows Russia to
continue to take the lead.
As the race for the Arctic heats up,
what's happening here in the Cola Bay is
setting the pace.
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