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Here's a quick experiment.
Take a look at this clip from one of my
matches last season.
What choice would you
have made in this position?
Would you have played a pass
forward into the midfielder?
Would you have laid it
off to the center back?
Would you have
switched play into the winger?
Or would you have
looked for a ball in behind
for the striker to chase?
All of these options
are completely viable,
but in this situation,
our player seemingly
made the wrong decision.
Chances are, while
you may have considered
at least one of these options,
you definitely won't have seen them all.
And every single second that passes,
new opportunities are created or lost.
When it comes to making a decision
and trying to gain an
advantage over the opponent,
countless factors are influencing
this player's thought process,
from the position of the opponent's
to the tactics covered during training.
But as observers,
it's seemingly impossible
to decipher everything that is happening
in the mind of the player.
So how can we understand
what this player is thinking
in order to beat his opponent?
A recent PhD study aimed
to answer this question,
and by interviewing
professional footballers,
they identified four key elements
that play a vital role in a player's
decision-making process.
No matter the sport,
decision-making is a fundamental skill
that all elite athletes need to possess.
While research on this
topic has grown substantially
over the past few decades,
there's still limited insight
from expert players' own perspective
about what exactly
influences a player's decision.
Initial research used
video-based experiments,
similar to what we saw
at the start of the video,
where athletes were shown clips of match
or training footage that
would pause at certain points,
with the participants then needing to say
what they would do next.
However, the results of these studies
proved to be inconsistent
with in-situ experiments,
noting how the player's gaze behavior
was different in the
two types of setting.
Essentially, it was clear that players
scanned their environment,
but there was little information
on how players used this information
to set up a situation that allowed them
to gain an advantage.
To understand why, I travelled back
to my old university in Portsmouth,
where a recent study
led by Dr. Harry Ramsey,
now a lecturer in skill acquisition,
aimed to fill in the
gap in the literature.
In their research, 15 current
professional football players
who have competed for
their national team,
either at senior or the
way to under-17 level,
were interviewed on what they thought
good decision-making was,
and how they modified their behavior
in order to gain an
advantage over the opponent.
The first theme that emerged
was the idea of being unpredictable.
So a number of the
players actually referred
to trying to make their
actions unpredictable,
or just in general,
trying to be unpredictable,
so that their
opponent didn't find it easy
to know what they were going to do.
Players also referred
to being unpredictable
on a more tactical level.
An example of this
that one of the players
highlighted would be,
if a winger receives the
ball on the touch line,
maybe the first three
times in a row in a game
they received the ball in that situation,
they would just do a simple
pass back inside the pitch,
and then on the fourth scenario,
they would see that their
fullback has anticipated
they were going to make that same pass
back inside the pitch again,
and make it look like they
were going to do that pass,
but then actually turn
and exploit the space
vacated by the defender
and dribble down the line.
So the player here isn't
trying to gain an advantage
or take on the player every
time they receive the ball,
but they're trying to set up a situation
kind of over a series of actions
where they can gain a bigger
advantage over their fullback
and create a better
chance for their team.
This idea of
unpredictability is extremely evident
at the elite level.
Creative dribbles such
as Bergkamp's famous goal
or sneaky free kicks under the wall
that led to a whole change in how teams
look to defend set pieces.
Players like Vinicius Jr
thrive on their ability
to create opportunities
by constantly changing
the types of runs and
dribbles that they make,
depending on the situation
that they find themselves in.
But for a player to trick the opponent,
they first need to
create the right situation
and generate the correct option.
So this theme is all about how players
actively generate options
and then how they select
between those options
that are available to them.
Several players
highlighted that they would
actively influence others around them
in order to generate the
options available to them.
So a number of players
highlighted how they did this
by when they were in
possession of the ball.
Maybe they would take a few more touches
to try and entice the opposition players
out of their positional structure.
And then that would free up
space for one of their teammates
to receive the ball in a
more advanced position.
So they would actively generate the
options available to them
by drawing others out of their position.
A good example of
this concept can be seen
from a player like
Ruben Dias and Man City,
often waiting on the ball for the
opponent to close him down
and creating a gap in
behind for the midfielder
to receive the ball in more space.
This finding emphasizes
that the opportunities
available to a player are not
all present at the same time.
And as a player
performs an action on the ball,
their teammates and
opponents move in response,
which in turn creates new information.
The most important aspect from this theme
was that the professional
players were generally aware
of their technical
skillset and then would aim
to make decisions or
perform actions that would align
with their own unique skillset.
In the case of a ball-playing
centre-back, for example,
if we take the two
Crystal Palace centre-backs,
so first we have Joachim Andersen.
He has that amazing ability to hit a
50-yard diagonal pass
to the wingers.
And then next to him, we have Mark Guehi,
who doesn't necessarily have that same
50-yard pass ability,
but he is really good
at carrying the ball,
driving with the ball into midfield.
So in the same position on the pitch,
these two players might
perform a different action
that aligns with
their own unique skillset.
So we get to the professional level
and to be successful at
the professional level.
Don't necessarily need to
have the biggest skillset,
but if you're able to
make decisions that align
with your own skillset,
you can be a really good decision-maker
and then a really good player
and really valuable to your team.
From personal experience,
this is one of the hardest things
to get youth players and
semi-professionals to understand,
is that while they
might be good at one thing,
they're certainly not
the best at everything.
And so as a coach,
helping your players understand
what their best qualities are
can certainly help them
become much better players.
Playing to one's strength
is certainly a vital skill
to possess, but for a
player to be able to do this,
they first need to be able to
anticipate and read the game.
One way they can do this is
by scanning the environment.
So this theme was all
about having the ability
to read your direct opponent,
as well as having an ability
to read the game as a whole.
In line with the beliefs
of professional coaches
and researchers, the
players highlighted the importance
of scanning for
supporting their decision-making.
Scanning can also
potentially help to make a player
more unpredictable,
as if they have more
options available to them,
it might be harder for an
opponent to be able to read
what they're likely to do.
Whereas if the player didn't scan
and they only have one option available,
which then could be a
simple bounce pass backwards,
it could lead them to
be a pressing target
for the opposition.
By constantly observing the environment
and taking in new information,
it allows players to gain
a much better understanding
of their surroundings.
For example, take this clip,
notice the midfielder constantly looking
around his environment,
noticing he has space to
receive the ball and gain ground.
From this position,
he is then able to
create a dangerous opportunity
by playing to his strengths.
In this situation, however,
we notice how the midfielder doesn't
observe his surroundings
and is focused on his
teammate on the ball.
As a result of not scanning,
he's unaware that he's
completely surrounded
and tries to dribble
rather than a simple layoff.
Simply by watching
world-class midfielders
like Kevin de Bruyne,
you can see how often
they are observing the game
that is unfolding around them,
allowing them to have more options
and make the right choice for the team.
Finally, the last key theme of the paper
referred to a player's decision
to control and dictate the game.
The general idea within this theme
is that good
decision-making appears to go beyond
what is currently
studied within the literature,
where players aim to not
only make good decisions
that benefit their team
and allow them to gain an
advantage over their opponent,
but where they make
decisions that allow them
to dictate the flow and
the rhythm of the game.
So one player in
particular, a central midfield player,
highlighted how one of his main roles
was to dictate the flow of the game.
So this could be knowing when to speed up
periods of possession
to create an attack,
and knowing when to slow
down periods of possession
to just retain the ball.
So the ability to
dictate the flow of the game
allows a team to apply
their own playing principles
to the game, which in
theory should give them
the best opportunity of being successful
against their opponent.
The main idea behind
this is that when a team
is in control of the
ball, it allows the players
to stick to their
principles and focus on the game.
And so the decision to reset the attack
and adjust the tempo of the game
can be an excellent way
of getting the whole team
on the same page.
An example of how
managers want to control the game
can be seen in a manager like Roberto
De Zerbi at Brighton.
Brighton are a team that
will comfortably complete
10 to 15 passes in their own box,
dragging the opposition out of position
and allowing their players
to stick to their principles
and control the game from buildup.
This finding is also in
line with current research
on team dynamics and work being done
on trying to better understand
how a team can control the game.
Data scientists have
modelled team dynamics
and created pitch control models to
capture how teams control
and dictate the game to
determine if this is a factor
that underpins their success.
So for example, a team's
ability to go from a slow buildup
to a fast buildup might
underpin their ability
to successfully break down the
opposition's defense
and create goal scoring opportunities.
So what exactly can we
learn from these findings?
By using this research, we can
essentially piece together
a timeline of what goes
into an informed decision.
Firstly, good decisions
are made when the players
have a good
understanding of their environment.
And so scanning and being
aware of their surroundings
is crucial.
Secondly, a player should do what's best
for their specific skill set.
If a player is more
comfortable playing shorter passes,
then their decisions
should lead them to a position
where they can best exploit this quality.
Thirdly, if a player makes their game
as unpredictable as
possible by constantly changing
what runs and passes they make,
it will give the
opposing team a much harder job
trying to anticipate
the player's movements.
Finally, a player
should aim to make the choice
that allows the team to
gain control of the match.
After moments of end-to-end football,
resetting the player
and allowing the team
to stick to their game plan
can be an excellent choice
that benefits the whole team.
But I'm curious to know
how you help your players
make informed decisions.
Leave your thoughts in
the comments down below.
Thank you to the University of Portsmouth
and Dr. Harry Ramsey for
giving me the opportunity
to explore groundbreaking research
in the world of football.
If you want to know
more about the research
that we covered in today's video,
then there are links to everything
in the description down below.
If scientific research and
the best coaching methods
is something you're interested in,
then make sure to
subscribe to the channel
so you never miss an update.
Thanks for watching.
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