– English Lyrics

Lyrics & Translation

[English]

Guys, you know me. Whenever I talk about

the next stock market crash, it's not

if, it's when. It will happen. And I'm

going to tell you what I'm seeing right

now has me worried. I'm not Nostradamus.

I can't give you a date for when it's

going to happen, but history tells us

that what's going on in the stock market

right now typically leads to a crash.

But the thing about the stock market

crashes is that with the right plan,

they will turn into the best opportunity

to make lifechanging money. I'll get to

that later. But first off, let me show

you exactly what's going on. Now guys, I

don't literally mean I'm scared. I look

forward to market drops. Not like

everybody else says I buy all these

companies that have to price. I

literally get excited. If you look at my

Instagram back from March of 2020, you

will see a picture of me kissing the

screen when the market was down like 8%.

Guys, these are opportunities. I want

you to look at it the same way. But I

get worried when I see people out there

put their hard-earned money into

something, expecting the past, the

recent past to repeat itself. Now,

you've heard people say, "Just buy the

S&P. It's safe. It's diversified." Guess

what? I say this. I believe that. And

for the vast, vast majority of time,

it's true. The longer and longer your

outlook is, it's been true. The S&P 500

is the biggest basket of the 500

strongest American companies. But right

now, the S&P is being taken over. It's

being dominated by a handful of massive

tech companies that are all racing to

win the AI game. Apple, Microsoft,

Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla,

Broadcom, Oracle, all of these companies

are fighting for AI. These companies

have gotten so big so fast that they now

control a huge chunk of the index. In

fact, guys, the tech sector now makes up

over 35% of the whole S&P. And of

course, it changes from day to day.

Guys, Larry Ellen, an 82 83y old

billionaire who's been a billionaire for

a long time, made $100 billion in one

day cuz his stock went up. Nvidia alone,

that company makes the brains called the

GPUs behind most AI tools. That company

alone is 7% of the entire index. So 500

companies, that means each name is2%,

but it's based on market cap. Nvidia

makes up 35 times more than that. Since

chat GPT burst on the scene in late

2022, AI focused stocks have driven 75%

of the S&P 500's total return. That

means if you made money in the last

couple years, odds are that it came from

one of these top concentrated companies.

But here's the catch. In investing, when

too much weight sits on just a few

companies, that's when things start to

wobble. That's when you need to be

worried. This continually ends the same

way. And we're going to get into that.

But first, let's talk about why this

concentration matters, guys. This is the

nine companies versus the S&P. Here's

the S&P's return year to date, 14.5%. Of

those nine companies, six have

outperformed. Six of them have

outperformed. The biggest gainer,

Oracle. That's the day that Larry

Ellison made $100 billion. These are big

numbers, guys. There are benefits to

concentration. The best investors ever,

they will concentrate their portfolio in

5 10 15 items and companies in order to

outperform. But when a diversified group

of companies like the S&P 500 is too

concentrated in one area, that's a

problem. These nine companies are all

doing different job, but they're all

tied to the same theme, AI. And that

means if AI stumbles or AI slows down or

turns out to be less profitable than

everybody hopes, your diversified S&P

500 is suddenly looking a whole lot

riskier. Remember four, five, six years

ago, everyone said, "You can't bet

against Tesla and Elon Musk. You can't

bet against Amazon." And those companies

have underperformed in the last 5 years.

These companies aren't just big, they're

enormous. And when their stock prices

move, the entire market moves. In fact,

there have been days in the last year

where these seven to nine companies are

down, the rest of the market is up, yet

the S&P is down for that reason, and

vice versa. So ask yourself this

question. If your portfolio depends on

nine companies all swimming in the same

AI pool, is that really a safe and

balanced investment? If in the 1999 you

bought 50.com companies that all made no

money, were you diversified? No. If you

have a bunch of diversified crap, it's

still crap. The good news is these

companies are not crap. They're great

companies. Every single one of them

makes money. But it is not a diversified

and balanced investment. Now listen, we

have witnessed this many times before. I

have witnessed this in my 30 years of

investing. And you, if you were around

in the late '9s, this AI moment is

starting to look a lot like a reboot of

the dot bubble, but with more hype and

buzzwords. Why? We have the internet. We

have social media. It's easier to get

involved. I will say though, these AI

companies do far better and are selling

for better multiples than the dot

companies. But here's the thing.

Whenever you see a handful of stocks

skyrocket on hype and everyone starts

saying this time it's different through

their actions, not their words, that's

when I start getting concerned.

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham calls

it exactly what it is, a bubble within a

bubble. He's not denying AI could be

huge someday. Nobody is. I am definitely

not doing that. Just like the internet

was going to change the world as it did

back then. All he's saying is that the

prices that people are paying for the

future are totally out of whack.

Remember, we believe in price versus

value. We want to buy when price is

below value. And how do you determine

value? Well, you look at the future, the

potential. The hard part about AI is we

don't know the potential. It could be

many, many magnitudes bigger or half of

that, which is still many magnitudes,

but it's not enough. But Grantham's

playbook is simple. When things get this

frothy, he steps back. When things get

reliant on a future that cannot be

questioned or can't have any hurdles, he

steps back. He looks at cheaper, safer

opportunities, value stocks,

international markets, stuff that isn't

on fire from hype fumes. Now, keep in

mind, guys, companies that are hyped can

still be value plays. Companies that

have a lot of growth potential can still

be value plays. But there's more to it

than that. If your neighbor's young kid

is talking about investment, if your

waiter or waitress is talking about AI

and all these other things, there's

probably a problem there. Then there's

Michael Bur, the big short guy. The man

made a fortune betting against the

housing bubble. But what people don't

remember is he is an incredible stock

picker and today he's shorting the AI

hype train. As of mid 2025, his fund

just had one long position. Everything

else defensive. That's contrarian. He's

seen what happens when everyone runs the

same direction. Now, keep in mind, he

has kind of sound the alarm on these

things before and he's been wrong. And a

lot of people would say like, "Oh, he's

just a FUDster." He's not a FUDster.

He's one of the few people that made

money during the com bust and was making

money on individual stocks. Even the

bond king, Bill Gross of Pimco, formerly

of Pimco, is waving the red flag,

warning that if AI doesn't deliver,

trillions could go poof. Listen to that.

if AI doesn't deliver. He's not sitting

there saying if AI doesn't work, if AI

doesn't deliver on what people expect

from it. And Charlie Mer, God rest his

soul, bluntly called it overhyped before

he passed. Remember, he's not saying it

doesn't deserve hype. It's just

overhyped. There's a very, very clear

distinction there. Now, Warren Buffett,

he's much more measured as usual. He

doesn't want people dislike him. So,

he's going to be very cautious and

measured in his statements. But look at

his actions. He's not chasing the shiny

stuff. Birkshshire is buying things like

steel, oil, and not chasing the next AI

model that guesses your lunch order. And

he said the same thing in the late 90s

about internet stocks and tech stocks.

Now, all he was saying was, I can't

value these things 10, 20, 30 years from

now. It's too soon. That's all he was

saying. He's not saying they're not good

companies. He's saying I cannot value

them. There's a very big distinction

there that I want you as a new viewer of

our channel to see. And don't get me

wrong, there's still permables like

Kathy Wood who think AI will unlock 13

trillion by 2030. Guys, Kathy Wood's an

idiot. If you listen to Kathy Wood, I'm

shocked you've made it this far. Now,

the things I'm saying to you make sense.

I'm glad you've made it this far. But

ask yourself, how often are market

predictions right? Guys, the warning

signs are flashing. Insanely wild

valuations. The ironic part is that's

the one warning sign that people are

ignoring that they should absolutely pay

attention to. Guys, think about it this

way. The US economy is so big. Is it

possible for all the companies in the US

economy to be a thousand times bigger

than the US economy? No. There's got to

be some ratio that makes sense. Does it

make sense that they're 1%? No.

Somewhere in the middle, it makes sense.

We're right now at a level that is over

120% higher than historical average.

That's an insane valuation. Keep in mind

that during the dot craze, it got to 55%

overvalued. We are 120ome percent

overvalued guys. We had Nvidia recently

invest a hundred billion dollars into

chat GPT and that hundred million that

hundred billion dollars was then used to

go buy Nvidia chips. Is it kind of

weird? Maybe. Is it manipulative? Maybe.

But I will tell you Nvidia something

like 80% of their sales come from seven

companies. 23% comes from one company.

And here's the real danger. When the

crowd gets emotional, logic takes a

backseat right before the crash. This is

how bubbles work, big story, big hopes,

big price tags, and then big problems.

Now, let me remind you of something that

Warren Buffett drilled into my head

years ago. Price is what you pay. Value

is what you get. And when it comes to AI

right now, I believe that investors are

paying Ferrari prices for cars that may

not have left the garage yet. Now, I

don't know this for sure. The future's

unknown, but all I know is when I see

everyone talking about a certain area, I

get apprehensive. When everybody in 2005

was a real estate flipper, a little

concerning when everybody was talking

about these electric electric vehicles

back in the late te 201s, little

concerning look how that turned out and

look what we said about it. I'm not

saying that AI doesn't have potential.

It's got massive potential. It's already

changing everything we do in our

business. But here's a real question

every discipline investor needs to ask.

Will AI produce the returns that justify

the price people are paying today?

That's it. There is a price that's too

high to pay for a great story. If you

don't believe that, then I encourage you

to watch more of our videos. You've got

to realize that there's too high a price

to pay. That's the whole game. The stock

market doesn't care about buzzwords. The

stock market in the long run cares about

cash flow and fundamentals, real returns

on investment. But in the short run, it

cares about what's most popular when

going up and what's least popular when

going down. Right now, these nine

companies are pouring hundreds of

billions of dollars into AI

infrastructure, chips, software, and

data centers. But here's the kicker. The

profits haven't caught up quite yet on

that investment. It's already made a lot

of money on the first investment, but

most of the AI revenue today is still

experimental or speculative. It's hope.

It's potential. It's a story. Doesn't

mean it can't work out, though. That's

the amazing part. I'm just sitting there

saying, "If it does work out, that's

great, but there's too much unknown for

me and too much price being paid for

that." And the investors are pricing it

like it's already guaranteed. Guys, you

can think back in your lifetime. How

many sure things didn't happen? How many

obvious things didn't happen? That's not

investing. That is wishful thinking. A

real value investor which is really any

real investor who has a process looks at

cash flow. They look at the balance

sheet. They look return on capital and

we ask if I own this business for the

next 10, 20, 30 years. Will the return

and cash flow I get justify the price

that I'm paying today? That's it. Could

it happen with all these big Absolutely

could happen. But history shows us that

when hype is the most high, it's kind of

hard for the future. This is a giant

question mark as of right now for a lot

of these AI stocks. Yes, Nvidia is

exploding. They've absolutely crushed

it. Yes, Microsoft is integrating AI

into everything. Google's got Gemini.

But what happens if growth isn't 50% a

year and if it's 40% a year? It sounds

like a small difference, but it's a

massive difference when you're talking

about 10 20 years and talking about

values. What happens if these massive

investments don't translate to

meaningful earnings? Guys, if I shoot a

gun right here from here to 10 feet

away, I can move my thing. I move my gun

maybe a millimeter. I'm still going to

hit it. The further out you go, any

small directional change is going to

cause a big miss. That's all I'm saying

here. So, you might sit there and say,

"Well, then how do people invest?" Well,

value investors, what they do is they

find companies where they can

meaningfully predict the earnings in the

future. So, what happens when they don't

translate into these earnings? Well,

that's when reality hits and price comes

crashing back down to meet value. So,

don't confuse popularity with

profitability. Let's get something

straight right now. AI is 1 million%

real. The innovation is 1 million% real.

The technology is beyond impressive. But

that does not mean the prices make sense

at any price. This is where most

investors get tripped up. They think,

well, AI is clearly the future, so these

stocks must be worth it. Maybe, but

that's not how investing works. It could

very well work out that way. But if you

made bets on all that going forward, you

might have a hard time. Guys, in the

late late 90s, tell me the internet

wasn't real. Of course, it was real. It

changed everything. Guess what? Along

the way, investors lost tons of money

cuz they bit up every tech stock that

had a dot on the end of it or who

mentioned their dot or website in their

earnings call. Sound familiar? People

bought companies no matter what. Back

then, it was no profits, no revenue,

just hype. It's the future. That's what

they said. And guess what? The NASDAQ

dropped nearly 80%. And you might sit

there and say, "Yeah, but Paul, those

companies weren't making money." Not the

NASDAQ 100. Those companies were making

money. It's not enough for technology to

be real. It has to produce real returns.

And those returns have to justify the

price you're paying today. So, here's

the lesson. Real innovation can exist

inside a speculative bubble. They are

not mutually exclusive. When prices get

too far ahead of reality, even great

companies can become terrible

investments. Tesla was a great company

in 2021. I would argue it's still a

great company, but then it went down 50%

that next year. Did it stop becoming a

great company? Come on. Don't confuse

progress with profit. Just because

something is the next big thing doesn't

mean it's worth owning at any price. As

investors though, as true investors, we

focus on value, not price. Guys, Cisco

was more expensive in 2000 than Nvidia

is today. I will absolutely say that.

But guys, Cisco is a great learning

lesson. Cisco in 2000 hit a high of 82

bucks. Has not seen that high since. Yet

its revenue is up four times. Its

profits up 5x. And if you take out this

strip right here, you basically got a

pretty normal company. And from here to

here, revenue was up 10x and profits up

10x. And guess what? Price is up 10x.

Coincidence? I think not.

The reason I'm showing this one and

there's probably countless example

actually pretty much any company if you

look at Microsoft all these things the

companies are up in the long run how

much their profit is up. So let's talk

about something very boring but brutally

important that you must listen to mean

reversion reverting back to the mean. It

sounds like something out of a math

textbook but it's actually one of the

most powerful forces in all of

investing. What it basically says if

something is way above or normal

eventually it comes back down. That is

mean reversion. And right now, the S&P

500 is screaming for a reversion. We've

talked about how just a handful of

companies, the Magnificent 7 and a few

AI giants, are carrying the whole index.

They've grown so big, so fast that they

now dominate pretty much the entire

market return. History shows that

concentration like this will not last

forever. Every time we've seen a few

stocks dominate, whether it was oil in

the 70s, Japanese stocks in the 80s, or

tech in the dotcom era, it always ends

the same way. A reversion back to the

mean. Guys, the Nikke index of Japan hit

an all-time high in December of 1989. It

did not see another all-time high until

a few years ago, 30ome years. I joked

with my brother that he never saw a new

Japanese all-time high until he was

married and had two kids. Hot companies

will cool off. Every hot company of

1970,

tell me who they are today. Then do the

hot companies of 2000, there's only one

company from the list in 2000 that's

still around today. It's Microsoft. And

guess what? In 2011 and 2012, a tech CEO

told me how Microsoft was dead because

it's a terrible company. And that was a

growing concern in the market. The

lagards will catch up and the whole

index shifts back to normal balance.

History and current valuations tell us

something's coming. Guys, I teach on

YouTube because I never heard this

before. And we have such an advantage to

be able to teach this and get a

community of like-minded people. I think

to myself, the things that took me 5 to

10 years to learn, I could have learned

in 6 to 12 months had I had YouTube 25

years ago. But remember guys, just

because I'm raising red flags doesn't

mean that I'm saying sell everything and

go wait for a crash. No, that's not what

we're here about. We're not panicking.

We're investors. What I'm here to do is

say the last 1015 years have been

awesome. Be ready for the next 10 or 15

years not to be as good, but the people

who are truly prepared will be ready for

the next big boom. We don't make

decisions based on fear or headlines. We

make them based on principles and data

if you want to survive long term in this

game. You need guard rails. You need a

system that keeps you from making the

kind of emotional decisions that wreck

most people's portfolios. That's why I

live by these five tenants of principal

driven investing and our entire

community does as well. One, we're

investors, not speculators. This one

stops me from chasing hot stocks or

trying to time the market. Two, we're

not gamblers, we're business owners.

Every investment is a present value of

all its future cash flows. What that

means guys is that future cash flow is

going to happen because the business

performs. So what I pay for it today and

that cash flow in the future will really

determine the return of the company of

my investment not because the stock

price goes up and down. That'll happen

with those cash flows. Three, if we

don't understand it, we don't invest in

it. If I can't explain how a company

makes money or what it's going to make

in the future, I won't be able to say

how it's going to lose money. So I walk

away. Four, in the short run, stock

market's a voting machine. In the long

run, it's a weighing machine. Cisco,

short run, voting machine. Long run,

weighing machine. Like clockwork. And

the fifth and probably most important

one. A great story can become a bad

investment if you pay the wrong price.

These aren't just cute sayings. They're

a mindset that protects me. They protect

me from bubbles, from hype, from FOMO.

They help me think logically, not

emotionally. And that's exactly what

most investors never learn. See, most

people are obsessed with finding the

next big winner. You know what the best

investors do? They eliminate the losers

first. That's what we're doing here.

We're breaking things down. We're

separating story from substance, price

from value, because that's what

principal driven investing is all about.

Rational, valuebased decision-m. And

that's how you build real wealth. So

guys, those five tenants, great news. I

don't expect you to memorize all those.

I have a shortcut for you. A simple PDF

that lays them out in plain English. No

crazy jargon, just the exact rules I

follow to stay disciplined and avoid

emotional mistakes. This guide is your

cheat sheet. When prices are bouncing

around and emotions are high, pull the

PDF out, read through the principles,

remind yourself why you're here. Guys, I

do this every single day. Focus on price

versus value, not the daily nose. So,

click the link description below,

download it, and start using it today.

And don't worry, we're not here to just

bash AI stocks and walk away. Stick with

me. Let's talk about what most investors

should actually do, especially if you

want to avoid the painful lessons that

come with chasing hype. First, let's be

clear. Keep dollar cost averaging. If

you invested in the QQQ at the peak of

2000 to today, you'd have seen an 80%

drop initially, and you still would have

made 14.5% per year on your money over a

25-y year period. That strategy still

works long term. If you've been

investing steadily into the broad market

ETFs like VO, don't stop just because

the market feels frothy. You need to

have that discipline when it's falling.

But here's the key. Be cautious about

putting extra money when valuations are

stretched. Just because the market is up

doesn't mean it's a great time to throw

in more than usual. This is the time to

be selective. If you've got extra cash

to invest, start looking at undervalued

individual companies. Companies with

strong balance sheets, consistent cash

flow, low debt, and ones that you can

figure out a reasonable amount of what

they'll make in the future. You've got

to use our stock analyzer tool to be

able to then say, "Here are my

assumptions about the future. What's the

company worth to me today? The best

opportunities are rarely popular. And

don't sleep on small cap stocks either.

Historically, small caps have

outperformed after big bull runs in

large tech. Why? Because markets rotate.

When the money comes out of small cap,

it goes to big large cap companies.

Those stocks fly high. These ones stay

low. What's hot eventually cools off and

what's ignored comes roaring back.

That's what most investors miss. It's

not about finding the next big thing.

It's about sticking to your principles

and paying a great price for a great

business. Now, let me level with you.

The AI bubble will probably burst at

some point. And it's super important to

get this knowledge of principal driven

investing and the skill to value stocks

before the market turns. In this next

video, I'm going to show you how we do

it so that you're prepared to act when

others are panicking. The video is

linked right on your screen. Don't miss

it. This is how you get ready for your

moment. Thank you for your time.

Key Vocabulary

Vocabulary	Meanings
market /ˈmɑːrkɪt/ A2	noun - a place where goods are bought and sold, especially stocks
invest /ɪnˈvɛst/ B1	verb - to put money into something expecting a profit
stock /stɒk/ B1	noun - shares in a company bought and sold on a stock exchange noun - a supply of goods
opportunity /ˌɒpəˈtjuːnɪti/ B1	noun - a good occasion for doing something
company /ˈkʌmpəni/ A2	noun - a business entity
AI /ˌeɪ ˈaɪ/ B2	noun - Artificial Intelligence
bubble /ˈbʌbl/ B2	noun - an economic bubble where values rise excessively before collapsing
price /praɪs/ A2	noun - the amount of money that something costs
value /ˈvæljuː/ A2	noun - the worth or importance of something
hype /haɪp/ B2	noun - exaggerated promotion or excitement
investor /ɪnˈvɛstər/ B1	noun - a person who puts money into businesses or stocks
profit /ˈprɒfɪt/ B1	noun - money earned from an investment after costs
crash /kræʃ/ B1	noun - a sudden failure or collapse of the market verb - to fail suddenly, especially in finance
diversify /daɪˈvɜːrsɪfaɪ/ B2	verb - to spread investments to reduce risk
outperform /ˌaʊtˈpɜːrfɔːrm/ B2	verb - to perform better than others
speculative /ˈspɛkjʊlətɪv/ C1	adjective - based on guesswork or risk rather than evidence
valuation /ˌvæljʊˈeɪʃən/ C1	noun - the process of estimating the economic value of an asset
return /rɪˈtɜːrn/ A2	noun - a profit made on an investment verb - to go back to a place or state
worry /ˈwɜːri/ A2	verb - to feel anxious or troubled