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Hey everyone. Um, I'm Jared Kaplan. I'm

going to talk briefly about scaling and

the road to human level AI, but my guess

is for this audience, a lot of these

ideas are pretty familiar, so I'll keep

it short and then we're going to do a

sort of fireside chat Q&A with uh with

Diana. I actually have only been working

on AI for about six years. I uh before

that had a long career, the vast

majority of my career as a theoretical

physicist. um working in academia. And

so uh how did I get to AI? Well, I I I

want to be brief. Why did I start in

physics? It was basically because my mom

was a science fiction writer and I

wanted to figure out if we could build a

faster than light drive and physics was

the way to do that. Um I also was very

excited about just understanding the

universe. How do things work? How do the

biggest trends that underly sort of

everything that we see around us, where

does that all come from? For example, is

the universe deterministic? Do we have

free will? I was very, very interested

in all of those questions. But

fortunately, along the way, uh during my

career as a physicist, I met a lot of

very, very interesting, very deep

people, including many of the uh

founders of Anthropic that I now work

with all of the time. And uh I was

really interested in what they were

doing and I kept track of it. And as I

moved from different uh among different

subject areas in physics from large

hadron collider physics, particle

physics, cosmology, string theory, um

and on I got a little bit frustrated, a

little bit bored. I didn't feel like we

were making progress quickly enough. And

a lot of my friends were telling me that

AI was becoming a really big deal. Um

and I didn't believe them. I was really

skeptical. I thought, well, AI, people

have been working on it for 50 years.

SVMs aren't that exciting. Um, that was

all we knew about back in 2005, 2009

when I was in school. But I got

convinced that that maybe AI would be an

exciting field to work on. Um, and I I

got very lucky to know the right people

and the rest is history. So uh I'm going

to talk a little bit about how our

contemporary AI models work and how

scaling is leading them to get better

and better. So there are really two

fundamental phases to the training of

contemporary AI models like claude

chatgpt

etc. The first phase is pre-training and

that's where we train AI models to

imitate human written data, human

written text and understand the

correlations underlying that data. And

these these figures are very very retro.

This is actually from the playground of

the original GPD3 model. And you can see

that as a speaker at a journal club,

you're probably elephant me to say

certain things. is the word elephant in

that sentence is really really unlikely.

What pre-training does is teach models

what words are likely to follow other

words in large corporate of text and now

with contemporary models multimodal

data. The second phase of training for

contemporary AI models is reinforcement

learning. This is another very retro

slide. Um it shows the original

interface we used for sort of claude

zero or claude negative one uh back in

the ancient days of 2022

when we were collecting feedback data.

And what you see here is basically the

interface for having a conversation with

very very early versions of Claude and

picking which response from Claude was

better according to you, according to

crowdworkers, etc. And using that

signal, we optimize, we reinforce the

behaviors that are chosen to be good,

that are chosen to be helpful, honest,

and harmless. And we discourage the

behaviors that are bad. So really all

there is to training these models is

learning to predict the next word and

then doing reinforcement learning to

learn to do useful tasks. And it turns

out that there are scaling laws for both

of these phases of training. So this is

a a figure that that we made five or six

years ago now and it shows how as you

scale up the pre-training phase of AI,

you predictably get better and better

performance for our models. And this was

something that came about because I was

just sort of asking the dumbest possible

question. As a physicist, that's what

you're trained to do. You sort of look

at the big picture and you ask really

dumb things. I'd heard it was very

popular in the 2010s to say that big

data was important and so I just wanted

to know how big should the data be? How

important is it? How much does it help?

Similarly, a lot of people were noticing

that larger AI models performed better.

And so we just asked the question, how

much better do these models perform? And

we got really lucky. We found that

there's actually something very very

very precise and surprising underlying

AI training. This really blew us away

that there are these nice trends that

are as precise as anything that you see

in physics or or astronomy. And these

gave us a lot of conviction to believe

that AI was just going to keep getting

smarter and smarter in a very

predictable way. Because as you can see

in these figures already back in 2019,

we were looking across many many many

orders of magnitude in compute, in data

set size, in neural network size. And so

we expected once you see something is

true over many many many orders of

magnitude you expect it's probably going

to continue to be true for a long time

further. So this has sort of been one of

the fundamental things that I think

underlies uh uh improvements in in AI.

The other is actually also something

that started to appear quite a long time

ago although it's become really really

impactful uh in the last couple of years

is that you can see scaling laws in the

reinforcement learning phase of AI

training. So uh a researcher about four

years ago decided to study scaling laws

for Alph Go. Basically putting together

two very very high-profile AI successes,

GPD3 and scaling for pre-training and

AlphaGo. This was just a researcher uh

Andy Jones working on his own uh with

like his own I think maybe single GPU

back in these sort of ancient days. And

so he couldn't study AlphaGo, that was

expensive, but he could study a simpler

game called Hex. So he made this plot

that you see here. Now, ELO scores, I

think, weren't as as as well known um

back then, but all EOS ELO scores are,

of course, is chess ratings. They

basically describe how likely it is for

one player to beat another in a game of

chess. They're used now to benchmark AI

models to see sort of how often does a

human prefer one AI model to another.

But but back then this is just sort of

the classic application of ELO scores as

as chess ratings. And he looked at as

you train different models to play this

game of hex, which is a very simple

board game, a bit simpler than than Go,

how do they do? And he saw these

remarkable straight lines. So it's sort

of a skill in science to notice very

very simple trends and and this was one

I think it went unnoticed. I think

people didn't focus on this this sort of

kind of scaling behavior in RL soon

enough but but eventually it came to

pass. So we see that basically you can

scale up the compute in both

pre-training and RL and get better and

better performance. And I think that's

sort of the fundamental thing that is

driving AI progress. It's not that AI

researchers are really smart or they

suddenly got smart. It's that we found a

very very simple way of making AI better

systematically and and we're we're

turning that crank. So what kinds of

capabilities is this unlocking? I tend

to think of AI capabilities on two axes.

I think the less interesting axis, but

it's still very important is basically

the the flexibility of AI, the ability

of AI to meet us where we are. So if you

put say Alph Go on this figure, it would

be very very far below the X-axis

because although Alph Go was super

intelligent, it was better than any Go

player at playing Go, it was uh only

able to operate in the universe of a Go

board. But we've made steady progress

since the advent of large language

models making uh AI that can deal with

many many many all of the modalities

that that people can deal with. We don't

have AI models I think that uh that have

a sense of smell. Um but that's that's

probably coming. And so as you go up the

y- axis here you get to AI systems that

can do more and more relevant things in

in the world. I think the more

interesting axis though is sort of the

the x-axis here which is how long it

would take a person to do to do the

kinds of tasks that AI models can do and

that's something that has been

increasing steadily as we increase the

capability of AI. This is sort of the

time horizon for for tasks and um an

organization meter studied this very

systematically and found yet another

scaling trend. They found that if you

look at uh the length of tasks that AI

models can do, it's doubling roughly

every 7 months. And so what this means

is that the increasing intelligence that

is being baked into AI by scaling

compute for pre-training and RL is

leading to predictable useful

tasks that the AI models uh can can do,

including longer and longer horizon

tasks. And so you can sort of speculate

about where this is heading. And in AI

2027 folks did. And this kind of picture

suggests that over the next few years we

may reach a point where AI models um can

do tasks that don't just take us minutes

or hours but days, weeks, months, years

etc. Eventually, we imagine AI models or

or millions of AI models perhaps working

together will be able to do the work

that whole human organizations can do.

They'll be able to do the kind of work

that the entire scientific community

currently does. Um, one of the nice

things about math or theoretical physics

is that you can make progress just by by

thinking. Um and so you can imagine AI

systems working together to make the

kind of progress that the theoretical

physics community makes in in say 50

years in a matter of days, weeks etc. So

what is left if if this sort of picture

of scaling can take us very far? What is

left? I think that what may be left in

order to unlock um kind of human level

AI broadly construed is relatively

simple. One of the most important

ingredients I think is relevant

organizational knowledge. So we need to

train AI models that don't just greet

you with a blank slate but can learn to

work within companies, organizations,

governments as though they have the kind

of context that someone who's been

working there for years has. So I think

AI models need to be able to work with

knowledge. They also need memory. What

is memory if not knowledge? I

distinguish it in the sense that as you

do a task that takes you a very very

long time, you need to keep track of

your progress on that specific task, you

need to build relevant memories and you

you need to be able to use them. And

that's something that we've uh we've

begun to build into into Claude 4 and I

think will become increasingly

important. A third ingredient that I

think that we need to get better at and

and we're making progress on is

oversight. the ability of AI models to

understand sort of fine grained nuances

to solve hard fuzzy tasks. So it's easy

right now and you see an explosion of

progress for us to train AI models that

can say write code that passes tests or

that answer math questions correctly

because it's very crisp what's correct

and what's incorrect. So it's very easy

to apply reinforcement learning to make

AI models uh do better and better at

those kinds of tasks. But what we need

and are developing are AI models that

help us to generate much more nuanced

reward signals so that we can leverage

reinforcement learning to do to do

things like tell good jokes, write good

poems, um and have good taste in in

research. The other ingredients that we

need, I think, are are are simpler. We

obviously need to be able to train AI

models to do more and more complex

tasks. We need to work our way up the

y-axis from text models to multimodal

models to robotics. Um, and I expect

that over the next few years, we'll see

increasing uh continued gains from scale

when applied applied to these these

different domains.

And so how should we sort of prepare for

this this future these possibilities? I

think there are a few a few things that

I always recommend. One is I think it's

really a good idea to build things that

don't quite work yet. This is probably

always a good idea. We always want to

have ambition, but I think specifically

AI models right now are getting better

very very quickly. And I think that's

going to continue. That means that if

you build uh a product that doesn't

quite work because Claude 4 is still a

little bit too dumb, um you could expect

that there'll be a Claude 5 coming that

will make that make that product work

and deliver a lot of value. So I think

that's that's something that I always

recommend is sort of experiment on the

boundaries of what AI can do because

those boundaries are moving rapidly. The

next point I think is that AI is going

to be helpful for integrating AI. I

think that one of the main bottlenecks

for AI is really just that it's

developing so quickly that we haven't

had time to integrate it into

products, companies, other thing

everything else that we we we do into

into science. Um, and so I think that in

order to sort of speed that process up,

I think leveraging AI for AI integration

is going to be is going to be very

valuable. And then finally, I mean, I

think this is sort of obvious for for

this crowd, but I think figuring out

where adoption of AI could happen very

very quickly is is key. Um, we're seeing

uh an explosion of AI integration for

coding. And there are a lot of reasons

why software engineering is a great

place for AI, but I think the big

question is sort of what's next? Um,

what beyond software engineering can

grow that that quickly? I don't know the

answer, of course. Um, but hopefully you

guys will figure it out. So that's it

for for for the talk. Um, I want to

invite Diana on stage for uh for a chat.

YC's next batch is now taking

applications. Got a startup in you?

Apply at y combinator.com/apply.

It's never too early and filling out the

app will level up your idea. Okay, back

to the video. That was a awesome talk

about all the scaling laws and recently

Anthropic just launched clot 4 which is

just available. Curious uh how does it

change what is possible as all these

model releases keep compounding for the

next 12 months?

I think that uh we'll be in trouble if

it's 12 months before before an even

better model comes out. But uh I guess

uh a few things with with Cloud 4. I

think that with Cloud 3.7 Sonnet

uh it was already really exciting to use

3.7 for coding. But I think something

that everyone noticed was that 3.7 was a

little bit too eager. Um sometimes it

just really wanted to make your tests

pass. Um and it would do things that

that you you don't really want. Uh there

are a lot of like try excepts things

like that. Um, so with Cloud 4, I think

that we've been able to improve the

model's ability to act as an agent

specifically for coding, but but in a

lot of other ways for search, for all

kinds of other applications. Um, but

also improve its supervision, the sort

of oversight that I I I mentioned in my

talk, so that it uh it follows your

directions and hopefully improves in in

code quality. I think the other thing

that we've worked on is improving its

ability to uh save and store memories

and we hope to see people leveraging

that because Claude 4 can blow through

its context window with a very complex

task but can also uh store memories as

files or records, retrieve them in order

to sort of keep doing work across many

many many context windows. But I guess

finally I think the picture that scaling

laws paint is one of incremental

progress. And so I think that what

you'll see with Claude is that steadily

it gets better in lots of different ways

with each release. Um but I think that

scaling really suggests a kind of smooth

curve towards what I expect is kind of

human level AI or AGI.

Is there some special feature that a lot

of the audience here are going to get

excited? some some beta that you can

some alpha leak you can give everyone on

what you think people are going to fall

in love with the new APIs.

I think the thing that I I'm most

excited about is sort of uh memory

unlocking longer and longer horizon

tasks. I think that like as as time goes

on we're going to see Claude as a

collaborator that can sort of take on

larger and larger chunks of work. This

is to your point of all these future

models being able to take bigger and

bigger tasks right now. At this point,

they're able to do tasks in the hours.

Yeah, I think so. I think it's a very

imprecise measure, but I think that

right now if you look at sort of

software engineering tasks, I think

meter literally benchmarked how long it

would take people to do various tasks

and uh and yeah, I think it's a time

scale of of hours. I think just gen like

broadly as people work with AI,

I think that the people who are skeptics

of AI will say correctly that AI makes

lots of stupid mistakes. Um, it can do

things that are absolutely brilliant and

and surprise you, but it can also make

uh make basic errors. I think one of the

sort of basic features of of AI that's

different about the shape of AI

intelligence compared to human

intelligence is that there are a lot of

things that I can't do but I can at

least judge whether they were done

correctly. I think for AI the judgment

versus the generative capability is much

closer which means that I think that uh

a major role people can play in

interacting with AI is kind of as

managers to sort of sanity check uh

sanity check the the work

which is fascinating because one of the

things we observe through the batches in

YC last year a lot of companies when

they were out and selling products they

were selling it more still as a co-pilot

where you would have a co-pilot let's

say for customer support where you still

need the last human approval before they

would send the reply for a customer but

one thing that has changed just in the

spring batch I think a lot of the AI

models are very capable to do task end

to end to your point that which is uh

remarkable founders are selling now

directly replacements of full workflows

how have you seen this translate to what

you hope the audience will build.

I think there are a lot of

possibilities. Basically, it's a

question of

what level of success or performance is

is acceptable. There are some tasks

where getting it sort of 70% right is is

good enough and others where you need

99.9% to to deploy. I think that

honestly I think it's probably a lot

more fun to build for use cases where uh

70 80% is good enough because then you

can really get to the frontier of what

AI is capable of. But I think that we're

sort of pushing up the the reliability

as well. So I think that uh we will see

more and more of these tasks. I think

that uh right now human AI collaboration

is is going to be the sort of most

interesting place because I think that

for the most advanced tasks you're

really going to need humans in the loop.

But I do think in the longer term there

will be more and more tasks that can be

fully automated.

Can you say more about what you think

the world is going to look like with

this human to AI loop collaboration?

because there's the essay from Dario

with machines of love and grace that he

paints this picture that's very

optimistic and what are the details of

how we get there with with this book?

I think that we already see some of some

of that happening. So at least when I

talk to folks who work in say biomedical

research um with the right sort of

orchestration I think it's possible to

take frontier AI models now and produce

interesting valuable insights for say

drug discovery. Um so I think that's

already starting to happen. I guess an

aspect of it that that I think about is

that like there there's sort of

intelligence that requires a lot of

depth um and and intelligence that

requires a lot of breadth. So for

example in math you can sort of work on

trying to prove one theorem for a decade

like the threemon hypothesis or firmat's

last theorem. Um I think that's that's

sort of solving one very specific very

hard problem. I think there's a lot of

areas of science, probably more so in

biology, maybe interestingly in

psychology or or history, where putting

together a very very large number of

pieces of information um across many

many different areas is kind of where

it's at. And I think that AI models

during the pre-training phase kind of

embibe all of human civilization's

knowledge. And so I suspect that there's

a lot of uh fruit to be picked in using

that sort of feature of AI that it knows

much much more than any one human expert

and therefore you can kind of elicit um

insights putting together many different

uh many different areas of expertise say

across biology for for for research. So

I think that um we're making a lot of

progress on making AI better at deeper

tasks like hard coding problems, hard

math problems, but I suspect that

there's a particular overhang in areas

where putting together knowledge that

maybe no one human expert would have

where that kind of intelligence is is is

very useful. So I think that's something

that I' I'd expect to see more of. Um is

sort of leveraging AI's sort of breadth

of knowledge. In terms of how exactly it

will roll out, I really don't know. It's

really really hard to predict the

future. Scaling laws give you one way of

predicting the future which says this

trend is going to continue. I think a

lot of trends that we see

over the long haul I expect will

continue. I mean the economy, the GDP,

uh the these kinds of trends are really

reliable indicators of the future. But I

think in terms of in detail how will

things be implemented, I think it's

really really hard to say.

Are there specific areas that you think

a lot more builders could go into and

build with these new models? I mean

there's a lot that has been done let's

say for coding tasks but what are some

tasks that have a lot more green field

that are just getting unlocked right now

with the current models

I come from a research background rather

than uh rather than business so I don't

I don't know that I have anything very

uh very deep to say but I think that

like in general any place where um it

requires a lot of skill um and it's a

task that mostly involves sort

sitting in front of a computer

interacting with data. I think finance

uh people who use Excel spreadsheets a

lot. Um I think I I expect law although

maybe maybe maybe law uh is is is more

regulated requires more uh more more

expertise um as a stamp of approval. But

I think all of these areas are probably

green field. I think another that that I

sort of mentioned is how do we integrate

AI into existing businesses? I think

that like when electricity came along,

there was some long adoption cycle and

the very first simplest ways of say

using electricity weren't necessarily uh

the best. You wanted to not just replace

a steam engine with an electric motor.

You wanted to sort of remake the way

that factories work. And I think that

probably leveraging AI to integrate AI

into parts of the economy um as quickly

as possible. I expect there's just a lot

of a lot of leverage there.

Now other question is you have a

extensive training as a physicist and

you were one of the first to really

observe this trend with scaling laws and

it probably comes from being a physicist

and seeing all these exponentials that

happen naturally in nature. How has that

training come about with uh being able

to perform like the best research in the

world with with with with AI?

I think the thing that was useful from a

physics point of view is looking for the

biggest picture, most macro trends and

then trying to make them as precise as

possible. So I remember meeting like

kind of brilliant AI researchers who

would say things like learning is

converging exponentially

and I would just ask really dumb

questions like are you sure it's an

exponential? Could it just be a power

law? Is it quadratic? Like like exactly

how is this thing converging? And it's a

really dumb kind of simple question to

ask, but basically I think there was a

lot of fruit to be picked and and

probably still is in trying to make the

big trends that you see as precise as

possible because that I don't know it

gives you a lot of tools. It allows you

to ask like what does it really mean to

move the needle? I think with scaling

laws, the the holy grail is finding a

better slope to the scaling law because

that means that as you put in more

compute, you're going to get a bigger

and bigger advantage over other AI

developers. Um, but until you've sort of

made precise what the trend is that you

see, you sort of don't know exactly what

it means to beat it and and how much you

can beat it by and how to know

systematically whether you're you're

you're achieving that end. So, I think

those were kind of the tools that that I

think I used. It wasn't necessarily like

literally applying say quantum field

theory to AI. I think that's uh that's a

little bit too specific. Well, are there

specific uh physics heruristics like

reormalization, symmetry that came in

very handy to really keep observing this

trend or or measuring it?

Something that you'll observe if you

look at AI models is that they're big.

Neural networks are big. They have

billions now trillions of parameters.

That means that they're made out of big

matrices. and basically studying uh

approximations

where you

take the limit that neural networks are

very big and specifically that the uh

matrices that compose neural networks

are big. That's actually been kind of

useful and that's something that

actually was a well-known approximation

in in physics um and and in math. Um

that's something that's been applied.

But I think generally it's really asking

very naive dumb questions that gets you

very far. I think AI is really in a

certain sense only like maybe 101 15

years old in terms of the current

incarnation of how we're training AI

models. That means that it's an

incredibly new field. A lot of the most

basic questions haven't been answered

like questions of interpretability, how

AI models really work. And so I think

there's there's really a lot to uh to

learn at that level rather than applying

very very fancy techniques. Are there

specific tools in physics that you apply

for interpretability?

I would say that interpretability is a

lot more like biology. It's a lot more

like neuroscience. So I think those are

kind of the tools. Um there there is

there is some more more more mathematics

there. But I I think it's more like

trying to understand the features of the

brain. Um the benefit that you get with

AI over neuroscience is that um you can

really measure everything in AI. You

can't measure the the activity of every

neuron, every syninnapse in a brain, but

you can do that in AI. So there's much

much much more data for reverse

engineering how AI models work.

Now when aspect about scaling laws,

they've held for over five orders of

magnitude, which is wild. This is a bit

of a contrarian question, but what

empirical sign would convince you that

the curve are changing that maybe we're

getting off the curve?

I think it's a really I think it's a

really hard question, right? Because I

mostly use scaling laws to diagnose

whether AI training is broken or not.

Mh.

So I think that uh once you see

something and you find it very it's a

very compelling trend, it becomes very

very interesting to examine

where it's failing. But I think that my

first inclination is to think if scaling

laws are failing, it's because we've

screwed up AI training in some way.

Maybe we got uh we got the architecture

of the neural network wrong or there's

some bottleneck in training that we

don't see or there's some problem with

precision in the algorithms that we're

using. So I think it would take a lot to

convince me at least that scaling was

really no longer working at the level of

the sort of these empirical laws because

so many times in my experience over the

last 5 years when it seemed like scaling

was broken it was because we were doing

it wrong.

Interesting. So I guess going into

something very specific that goes hand

in hand is a lot of the compute power

required to go keep going on this curve.

What happens uh as compute becomes more

more scarce how far down do you go into

the precision ladder like do you explore

things like FP4 do you explore things

like turnary representations what what

are your thoughts around that? Yeah, I

mean I think that um right now AI is

really inefficient because there's a lot

of value in AI. So um there's a lot of

value in unlocking the most capable

frontier model. Um and so companies like

Anthropic and others are moving as

quickly as we can to both make AI

training more efficient and AI inference

more efficient as well as unlocking

frontier capabilities. But a lot of the

focus really is on uh unlocking the

frontier. I think that over time as AI

becomes more and more widespread, I

think that we're going to really drive

down the cost of inference and training

dramatically from where we are right

now. I mean right now we're seeing sort

of 3x to 10x gains algorithmically and

in sort of scaling up compute um and in

uh inference efficiency per year. I

guess like the joke is that we're going

to get computers back into binary. So I

think that we will see much much lower

precision as one of the many avenues to

make inference more efficient over time.

But sort of we h we're very very very

out of equilibrium with AI development

right now. AI is improving very rapidly.

Things are changing very rapidly. We

haven't fully realized the potential of

current models, but we're unlocking more

and more capabilities. So I think that

what the equilibrium situation looks

like where AI isn't changing that

quickly, I think is one where AI is

extremely inexpensive, but it's sort of

hard to know if we're even going to get

there. like AI may just keep getting

better so quickly that uh sort of

improvements in int intelligence unlock

so much more and so we may continue to

focus on that rather than say getting

precision down to FP2

which is very much uh the Jebans paradox

as intelligence becomes better and

better people are going to want it more

not that is driving the cost down which

is this irony right

yeah absolutely I mean I think that uh

yeah that's that's certainly certainly

something that we've seen that there are

certain uh certain points where AI

becomes accessible enough. That said, um

I think as AI systems become more and

more capable um and can do more and more

of the work that that we do, it's going

to be worth it to pay for uh frontier

capabilities. I think it's a question

that I've always had and can have is

kind of like is all of the value at the

frontier or is there a lot of value with

kind of cheaper systems that aren't

quite as capable? And I think the sort

of time horizon picture is maybe one way

of thinking about this. I think that you

can do a lot of very simple bite-sized

tasks, but I think it's just much more

convenient to be able to use an AI model

that can do a very complex task end to

end rather than requiring us as humans

to sort of orchestrate a much dumber

model to break the task down into very

very small slices and put them together.

So, I do kind of expect that a lot of

the value is going to come from the most

capable models, but I might be wrong. It

it might depend and it might really

depend on the capabilities of AI

integrators to sort of leverage AI

really efficiently.

What advice would you give this audience

which there everyone is early in the

career with lots of potential in terms

of how do you stay relevant in the

future where all these models are going

to become so awesome. What should

everyone be really good at and study and

to still do really good work? I think as

I mentioned there's a lot of value in

understanding how these models work and

being able to really efficiently

leverage them and and integrate them and

I think there's a lot of value in kind

of like building building at the

frontier. Um I don't know we could turn

it over to the audience for for

questions.

Let's turn it out to the audience for

some questions.

I had a quick question on the scaling

loss. You show that a lot of the scaling

laws are like linear that like the more

we have exponential compute going up but

then like we have linear progress in uh

in the scaling loss but then on your

last slide you show that you expect then

suddenly like an exponential growth in

like how much time we save. I want to

ask you like why do you think that

suddenly on this chart we're exponential

and not linear anymore?

Thank you.

Yeah, this is a really good question and

I don't know. Um I mean the meter

finding was kind of an empirical

finding. Um the way that I tend to think

about this is that um in order to do

more and more complex logger horizon

tasks um what you really need is some

ability to self-correct. You need to be

able to sort of identify that you've

you've you make a plan and then you

start executing in the plan. But

everyone knows that our plans are kind

of worthless and uh and we encounter

reality. we get things wrong. And so I

think that a lot of what determines the

horizon length of what models can

accomplish is their ability to notice

that they're doing something wrong and

and correct it. Um, and I think that's

not sort of like a lot of bits of

information. It doesn't necessarily

require a huge change in intelligence to

sort of notice one or two more times

that you've made a mistake and how to

correct that mistake. But if you sort of

fix your mistake, maybe you sort of on

the order sort of double the horizon

length of the task because like instead

of getting stuck here, you get stuck

twice as far twice as far out. So I

think that's sort of the picture that I

have that like you can kind of unlock

longer and longer horizons with

relatively modest improvements in your

kind of ability to understand the task

and self-correct. But that just kind of

like those are just words. I think the

empirical trend is maybe the most

interesting thing. And uh maybe we can

build more detailed models for why that

trend is true, but it's sort of your

guess is as good as mine.

Yeah. So I also have a question over

here. Um so it's an honor. Um so

basically um in terms of um increasing

the time horizon, I feel like so my

mental model of neuronet networks is

very simple. If you want them to do

something, you train on such data. Um so

if you want them to um if you want to

increase the um time horizon you have to

slowly get for example verification

signals. Now um I think one way to do

this is via product. So like for example

um cloud agent and then you use the

verification signal to incrementally

improve the model. Now my question is

basically this works really nicely for

for example coding where you have a

product that is sufficiently good such

that you can deploy it and then get the

verification signal but what about other

domains like in other domains are we

just um scaling data labelers to AGI or

is there a better approach? Yeah, it's a

good question. I mean, um, so when when

sort of skeptics ask me sort of why do I

think we will be able to sort of scale

and get something like broadly human

level AI, it's basically because of of

what you said. there is some sort of

very kind of operationally intensive

path where you just sort of build more

and more different tasks for AI models

to do that are more and more complex,

more and more long horizon and you just

sort of turn the crank and train with RL

on those those more more complicated

tasks. So I sort of feel like that's the

worst case for AI progress. And I mean

given the level of investment in AI and

I think the the sort of level of value

that I think is being created with AI, I

think people will do that if necessary.

That said, I think there are a lot of

ways of sort of making it simpler. The

best is to have an AI model that is

trained to oversee and supervise what uh

claw like you have claude say which

you're training to be clawed when you

have another AI model that's sort of

providing supervision and is not just

saying did you do this incredibly

complicated task correctly like did you

become a faculty member and get tenure

will that take six or seven years is

that like an endto-end task where at the

end you sort of either get tenure or not

over seven that's that's ridiculous.

That's very inefficient. But instead can

provide more detailed supervision that

says you're doing this well, you're

doing this poorly. Um I think that sort

of as we're able to use AI more and more

in that kind of way, we'll probably be

able to make training for very long

horizon tasks more efficient and I think

we're already doing this to some extent.

We'll do one last question.

Yeah, I wanted to build on top of that.

when you're basically developing like

these tasks and then training them with

RL, would are you like like would you

like try creating these tasks like using

large language models like the tasks you

use for RL or are you still using

humans?

Great question. So I would say a mix. Um

I mean obviously we're building the

tasks as much as possible using AI to

sort of like say generate tasks with

code. we do like also uh ask humans to

create tasks. So it's it's basically

some mixture of those things. Um I think

that as AI gets better and better,

hopefully we're able to leverage AI more

and more, but of course the frontier of

the difficulty of these tasks also

increases. So I think humans are are are

still going to be involved.

Okay. Thank you.

All right. Let's give it a round of

applause to Jared.

Thank you so much. Thanks.

Key Vocabulary

Vocabulary	Meanings
scaling /ˈskeɪlɪŋ/ B2	noun - the process of increasing or decreasing in size or extent
AI /ˌeɪˈaɪ/ B1	noun - Artificial Intelligence, the simulation of human intelligence in machines
models /ˈmɒdəlz/ A2	noun - a simplified representation of a system or process
training /ˈtreɪnɪŋ/ A2	noun - the process of teaching or learning a skill
reinforcement /rɪˈɪnfərsəmənt/ C1	noun - the process of encouraging or strengthening a behavior
learning /ˈlɜːnɪŋ/ A1	noun - the process of acquiring knowledge or skill
compute /kəmˈpjuːt/ B1	verb - to calculate or determine using a computer
data /ˈdeɪtə/ A2	noun - facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis
intelligence /ɪnˈtelɪdʒəns/ B1	noun - the ability to learn, understand, and think in a logical way
capabilities /kəˈpeɪbɪlɪtiz/ B2	noun - the ability to do something
tasks /tɑːsks/ A1	noun - a piece of work to be done or undertaken
horizon /həˈraɪzən/ B1	noun - the limit of a person's mental perception, experience, or interest
memory /ˈmeməri/ A2	noun - the faculty by which the mind stores and remembers information
oversight /ˈoʊvərsaɪt/ C1	noun - the action of overseeing or the state of being overseen
integration /ˌɪntɪˈgreɪʃən/ B2	noun - the process of combining or coordinating different elements
progress /ˈprəʊɡres/ A2	noun - forward or onward movement toward a destination