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This week, Kier Starmer gets tough on 00:00
Nigel Farage. 00:02
He doesn't like Britain. Doesn't believe 00:03
in Britain. Wants you to doubt it just 00:05
as much as he does. 00:08
He delivers one of his greatest hits, 00:10
but with a twist. 00:12
People like my dad. I think by now you 00:12
know what he did for a living. 00:16
And Chris Mason's dentist resigns in 00:20
disgust at his eating habits at Labour 00:22
Party conference. 00:24
Well, that's brave. 00:26
This is like an ASMR video. 00:28
We will discuss all of that and what 00:30
else we learned this week on this 00:32
episode of Newscast. 00:34
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio 00:38
and Chris in the studio. 00:40
Fisel in the newscast studio. 00:41
And please welcome Professor Jane Green 00:43
who has got many job titles. I'll read 00:45
them out. Director of Nfield Politics 00:47
Research Center at Oxford and president 00:49
of the British Poland Council. 00:51
Oh, you missed a few, but thank you very 00:52
much. 00:54
You're in a band. And you're in a band. 00:55
The risk register. 00:57
Exactly. Um, can we download your 00:58
material? 01:00
Uh, not quite yet. 01:01
Okay. Not that big. 01:02
Okay. Right. But let's focus on let's 01:02
focus on your political analysis for 01:05
this episode. 01:06
Okay. That sounds good. 01:06
Um, and I should say we did an episode 01:07
of Newscast the podcast which you can 01:08
listen to on BBC Sounds now with the 01:10
latest from the terror incident in 01:12
Manchester. So, we have been keeping an 01:14
eye on that. But in this episode, we're 01:16
going to look back at some of the 01:17
political events of the week because 01:18
Chris, you and I spent half of it in 01:20
Liverpool at the Labor Party conference. 01:22
Yeah. How do you think Kier Starmer has 01:25
emerged from that? 01:27
I think speaking to those around him and 01:28
indeed speaking to him there, he's 01:31
pleased that they have focused their 01:33
pitch, if you like, their political 01:36
pitch on reform. The prime minister has 01:38
been getting a lot of heat privately 01:41
from some pretty senior figures around 01:43
him saying it was the the Labor offer 01:44
was still still too fuzzy in their view, 01:47
particularly up against Nigel Farage, 01:49
who paints in the most primary of of 01:51
colors. We've seen a buildup to this 01:53
argument in terms of Labour making the 01:55
case that their real opponents are 01:57
reform rather than the Conservatives 01:58
which they kept labeling as irrelevant. 02:00
Uh but it came together I think in that 02:02
in that conference speech speaking to 02:05
folk since that speech uh those who 02:07
welcomed it say that's good but will he 02:11
stick to it? Uh because you know you 02:15
don't change the political narrative in 02:17
one speech. Most people miss most of 02:19
what politicians do most of the time. In 02:21
other words, does he keep prosecuting 02:22
that argument in the next six to nine 02:24
months, particularly in the countdown to 02:26
the elections in Scotland and Wales and 02:27
indeed locally in England next May? Um, 02:29
and to what and to what effect? And the 02:33
sharpening of the language I think was 02:36
particularly particularly striking, not 02:37
least the round that then bubbled up 02:39
with Nigel Farage and reform about 02:40
exactly that. 02:42
Um, Jane, you spend your whole life 02:43
crunching data about how the electorate 02:44
think about things. What data will 02:47
number 10 Downing Street have crunched 02:49
to help them inform that conference 02:50
speech that he gave? 02:52
Oh, that's a fascinating question, Adam, 02:53
because I've been wondering if they are 02:55
crunching the same data as us because 02:57
our analysis of voting behavior and 03:00
defections from Labor, so people that 03:03
voted Labor in 2024 and no longer intend 03:05
to vote Labor, tells a kind of two-prong 03:08
story. One is that Labour's vote is 03:10
splintering in all directions, but the 03:12
smallest proportion is to reform. So 03:15
before the conference, one had to wonder 03:18
why they were going for reform voters so 03:20
much. That's not about the attack on 03:22
reform, but that's just about which 03:24
voters are they most worried about. And 03:26
I think there might have been assumption 03:27
that they could almost rely on the left 03:29
to sort of rally around Labor again if 03:32
they see reform as the main threat. So 03:35
that's clearly one of the things that 03:36
they're thinking, 03:38
but it was curious how much they looked 03:40
like they were going for reform voters 03:41
because that's really tricky for Labor. 03:43
The other risk with all of this and it 03:46
is high risks you know but then 03:48
obviously you've got to make a choice 03:50
and frankly you can't ignore Farage and 03:51
you can't ignore the polls but the other 03:53
big risk is that Conservative voters are 03:56
still leaving the Conservative party. 04:00
Now that is extraordinary because I mean 04:02
it's not extraordinary when you think 04:05
about the context but if historically 04:06
you don't normally see the main 04:09
opposition party losing support when the 04:10
governing part is losing support. So, 04:12
Conservative voters are still switching 04:15
to reform and Conservative voters were 04:18
switching to reform between 2019 and 04:20
2024. So, that's a cumulative loss on 04:23
the right. Now, if you then tell 04:26
everybody because obviously Labor is not 04:29
just talking to Labor voters, they're 04:31
talking to everyone. If you tell 04:32
conservative voters reform is the main 04:34
opposition on party on the right, then 04:38
perhaps reform looks like the viable 04:40
party to choose rather than the 04:42
conservatives. That's very bad for 04:44
Labor. Very, very bad for Labor because 04:46
Labor can lose so many constituencies 04:48
just because Conservative voters move to 04:51
reform in greater numbers. And it is 04:54
interesting because actually when you're 04:56
in Labour Party conference in the hall 04:57
and surrounded by Labor activists, you 04:59
sort of feel like it's a message to 05:01
Labor activists and okay, you're 05:03
constantly thinking about the rest of 05:05
the country because we're going to 05:06
interpret it on the 6 and 10:00 news and 05:07
the Today program, but when you're in 05:09
there, you the thing that's in front of 05:10
you is the activists cheering the 05:12
messages. 05:13
I think I sometimes forget that he is 05:14
speaking to the whole country at that 05:16
point. 05:17
I mean, he's hoping to, right? Like I 05:18
mean, he's hoping that someone's 05:19
listening. I think Chris is absolutely 05:21
right. You know, we can obsess about a 05:22
speech and it's really important. It 05:24
tells us about the direction and the 05:26
strategy and the intentions, but the 05:28
real test, the proof of the pudding is 05:30
whether it gets outside of the 05:31
conference hall and whether it's 05:33
repeated and whether it's prosecuted 05:35
over and over and over again. Um, but 05:37
there was such a lot that was in that 05:39
speech that also was for the left. And I 05:41
think 05:43
that was what was fascinating that for 05:44
so there were two kind of vacuums, 05:46
weren't there? one was this vacuum over 05:48
kind of oh there's a lot of racism and 05:50
racist language and things are being 05:53
normalized here and nobody else is 05:54
saying anything about this on the left 05:56
of politics to try to counter that. So I 05:58
think that was one of the things that he 06:00
was trying to do. The other one was of 06:01
course give people on the left a reason 06:03
to vote for them. And I think that does 06:05
speak to what we see in our analysis and 06:07
it's not just our analysis of British 06:10
election study data. Of course you see 06:12
it in polling right across the piece 06:13
that Labour's vote was splintering from 06:15
the left and Labour's biggest losses are 06:17
still to undecided. So they really 06:20
needed and I still think this is un I'm 06:22
still very unclear about this. They 06:26
really needed to give people a sense of 06:28
what labor was for. And it's not I mean 06:29
you know is labor for tolerance and 06:32
economic growth. I wouldn't say economic 06:34
growth is the thing that people worried 06:36
about the most. I think it's their own 06:37
finances, their own worries about their 06:39
own financial well-being, cost of living 06:41
and everything else. Well, and and 06:43
people don't link the economy as a whole 06:44
growing to their own personal 06:46
circumstances getting 06:47
I mean I often think and forgive me for 06:49
saying this but I often think well if I 06:51
think something's nuanced and I'm an 06:52
academic and I'm meant to do nuance 06:54
then I'm not sure that you know somebody 06:56
who's not like me is going I mean it was 06:58
a very nuanced argument about how growth 07:00
translates into you know people's kind 07:02
of daily lives and in our own analysis 07:05
we we've been running some um additional 07:09
surveys with the Joseph Roundry 07:11
Foundation absolutely fascinating 07:12
economic growth is the is the top thing 07:14
that people don't understand as well. 07:16
Okay. So if you ask like how's you know 07:19
GDP, how's the economic growth going? 07:21
That's the one with the highest 07:23
proportion of people that saying I don't 07:24
know 07:25
right 07:26
you know what I know is how I feel about 07:26
the cost of living how I feel about 07:28
inflation and prices and you know people 07:30
are more willing to talk about 07:32
and there wasn't a lot about the cost of 07:33
living in Star speech there was one one 07:34
line wasn't there when he talked about 07:37
like the things that make life good like 07:39
going out for a meal or having a a trip 07:40
somewhere. Yeah. And he does mention 07:42
economic security which was a personal 07:45
moment for me but because it's something 07:47
I've been talking about for absolutely 07:49
yonks now you know the importance of 07:50
this. 07:52
Um and fisel I suppose you would be 07:53
watching Rachel Reeves' speech as much 07:55
as Karma's speech for clues about the 07:57
economy and do we have 07:58
do we get any clues for the next few 08:00
months? 08:02
I want to pick up some of what Jane 08:02
said. I think I think what I heard there 08:03
which I wondered why we haven't had this 08:07
earlier was this attempt to inject some 08:08
degree of optimism in a world 08:11
politically we've talked about this 08:13
before w where there's a lot of doomism 08:14
doom and gloom some of it came from the 08:18
government itself just over a year ago 08:20
uh and I think from their perspective it 08:22
hasn't really stopped they expect you 08:25
know and not just for political purposes 08:26
I'd imagine where they want people to 08:31
feel a little bit better about about 08:32
things. Interest rates have been cut. 08:33
Um, real income, so that's after 08:35
inflation have started to go up. No boom 08:38
here. But like certainly when they're 08:40
going down, that's a bad thing, right? 08:43
So the absence of that bad thing is 08:45
good. The absence of a sort of fiscal 08:47
crisis, a mini budget style situation is 08:48
is also good. But some sense of 08:50
optimism, we can see in some of the 08:52
economic statistics, this downtrodden 08:54
vibe is having an impact. People's 08:57
savings rates are high. They're in 08:59
double digit over 10% was the latest 09:01
figure that came out just this week and 09:03
that is what we sort of associate with 09:06
pandemic level stress. So people are a 09:07
bit worried about the economy and given 09:09
we've had five interest rate cuts, given 09:11
that real incomes are growing, given 09:13
that the economy has been growing even 09:14
if people don't feel it so much. 09:16
Um consumer confidence and things like 09:18
that are lagging behind. And so I 09:20
thought it was very I thought I'd hear 09:24
it more from the chancellor. We heard a 09:25
bit of it from the chancellor. Then the 09:26
prime minister really went for it on 09:28
this sort of optimistic tale of what 09:30
Britain 09:32
can be. 09:34
Oh, so all that stuff about like, oh, 09:34
Britain's a great country cuz the people 09:36
that chop the oranges at halftime for 09:38
their kids football match, that was 09:39
actually intended to like stimulate a 09:41
feel-good factor that makes people go 09:43
out and spend money. 09:44
And I'm 09:46
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You're making a very 09:48
sort of direct punch through argument 09:49
there. But yeah, in a sense, 09:51
I haven't heard them say that to me. But 09:53
I when I when I when I put together some 09:55
of the things holding the economy back 09:57
the economy should be doing better given 09:59
the interest rate cuts. We should see 10:02
consumer confidence ticking up. It has 10:04
not ticked up. There's some very 10:05
interesting analysis saying that some of 10:06
this might be attached to people's 10:08
political beliefs particularly amongst 10:10
the over 50s where there's a really that 10:12
is the that is the central part of low 10:14
consumer confidence is the over 50s. And 10:17
is there something to do with political 10:20
beliefs about the country being rubbish? 10:22
Basically, even though things are very 10:24
stressed for younger people, in fact, 10:27
their consumer confidence has gone up 10:28
with their incomes. So, I think I I 10:29
detect there could have been a conscious 10:33
strategy to g people up a little bit. 10:35
I'm also conscious of the return of the 10:38
b- word, Brexit. You think about Jane's 10:40
analysis of who they're trying to win 10:43
with this strategy. I was very struck in 10:46
the interviews by the prime minister in 10:48
Rachel Reef's speech. This thing about 10:50
the youth scheme with Europe really 10:51
leaning in to Brexit having not worked. 10:54
I'll just put it like that in a way they 10:58
maybe wouldn't have done before the 11:00
election because they didn't want to 11:01
offend those reform voters. Right. 11:02
I think Yeah. I I think there's 11:04
something in that. Not least because I 11:05
think they realize that they cannot they 11:07
cannot sharpen a political argument with 11:09
reform and then walk past the question 11:11
of Brexit. I think coupled with the fact 11:13
I think they've been inclined to want to 11:15
do it for a while and have just been 11:17
trying to find the the space to do it. 11:18
Just picking up on your point about the 11:20
optimism and the oranges. There's an 11:22
overlap here. No, no, the oranges thing 11:24
is is an interesting part of this 11:26
because I think there's an overlap. We I 11:27
think we mentioned this on newscast the 11:28
other day, Adam. So firstly, I think 11:30
there was an awareness that they did 11:31
want to sound more optimistic, but 11:32
didn't want to fall into the trap that 11:34
they felt that Rishi Sunnak occasionally 11:36
fell into, which was to seize upon a 11:38
particular bit of economic data and and 11:40
this is to caricature what he would have 11:42
done, but to to to the the political 11:44
danger of overdoing the positive if 11:47
people are feeling negative. Mhm. 11:49
But I think where the overlap with the 11:51
oranges comes in and indeed the image 11:53
from Shroptshire, the rolling English 11:55
countryside of Shroptshire, which later 11:57
which is this image that popped up all 12:00
around uh the conference center in 12:02
Liverpool was this articulation that 12:04
they were attempting to find around how 12:06
they see patriotism 12:08
uh in in this era where there is contest 12:10
around flags and we saw the Union flag 12:13
and indeed the flags of the UK nations 12:15
very prominently in the audience uh 12:17
during the prime minister of speech. So 12:19
I think there's an overlap there. I 12:21
think that the the the that to to to 12:22
overdo seizing on that quarter of orange 12:25
is to both lean into a sense of optimism 12:27
but also identity and belonging and who 12:30
we are and and and I think the word that 12:32
neatly encapsulate both encapsulates 12:34
both of those is pride. That's what they 12:36
were trying to get to. 12:39
You know this I think you know this 12:40
question about mentioning Brexit. It's 12:41
partly because people have come to the 12:44
conclusion that Brexit hasn't worked for 12:46
many people. It's partly because 12:48
Labour's voters are overwhelmingly those 12:49
voters who either voted remain or would 12:52
againain. Um but it's also something 12:55
else, isn't it? It's there's two things 12:58
I think. One is people just didn't want 13:00
to go there again. 13:02
Completely. 13:04
Um they didn't want to go there again. 13:04
So imagine framing another general 13:06
election campaign as a little bit like 13:09
that one. you know, where you've got 13:11
kind of the same guy Nigel Farage on the 13:13
Brexit side promising a load of stuff 13:14
just as in Brexit that a lot of that did 13:18
not happen and then you've got this kind 13:20
of binary choice. I mean, that's how I 13:23
kind of almost think about the next 13:25
explain something that I'd find a bit 13:27
mysterious. The weekend before Labour 13:28
Party conference where Rachel Reeves's 13:30
big interview, the centerpiece in the 13:32
Times was the youth mobility scheme with 13:34
the EU which has already been announced, 13:36
not actually negotiated with the EU, but 13:39
we knew a version of it was coming. And 13:41
that's the thing that she sort of 13:43
splashed on and then ministers were 13:44
talking about a lot those those days 13:46
around it. I'm like why? But now I 13:48
understand why. 13:50
Well well well there's the dividing line 13:50
politically. Economically, they hope 13:52
that it will unlock a return of serve 13:54
from the Europeans that can open up some 13:56
economic wins. For example, getting rid 13:59
of almost all checks on food imports and 14:01
exports. Prime Minister said that that 14:04
in some of his interviews that that 14:05
would be a win for food prices, help uh 14:07
British manufacturing industry um be 14:10
part of uh consortia that are bidding 14:13
for the massive boom now in rearming 14:15
Europe. um there's going to be tens of 14:18
billions, hundreds of billions. You want 14:21
British manufacturers at the heart of 14:22
that at the minute we're not allowed to 14:24
be part of these consortium 14:25
that is open as a negotiating point that 14:27
will have been heard in Brussels. Now 14:30
there's also now traditionally we may 14:32
have said only a year ago we would have 14:34
said well then there's all sorts of like 14:35
are you getting too close to to 14:36
Brussels? Is that going to offend the 14:38
reform voters? Are they going to go 14:39
there? And I just note uh Mr. Bernham 14:41
popping up in in a in a and saying he 14:44
thought we were going to rejoin in his 14:47
lifetime, which he you never would have 14:48
got a senior Labor figure even going 14:50
there a year ago. 14:51
And Bernham was saying a lot. 14:53
No, he was saying a lot. But I'm just 14:55
saying like the dynamic if this is if 14:56
this is a new dynamic if I wrong. If 14:58
we're right, 15:00
then coming up on that side of the 15:01
Labour party, which is where the 15:04
action's going to be for the government, 15:05
becomes a bit of a competition. And do 15:07
you get the same as happened for the 15:09
Tories 15:11
in the last decade happened to Labor 15:12
being outflanked 15:15
and and Chris this is I mean this is a 15:16
ridiculous question to ask because I 15:18
don't know how you can't peer into like 15:19
Kstarmmer's brain directly but he's 15:20
under a lot of fire. We had that sort 15:23
he's very unpopular in the polls 15:25
although we could talk about whether 15:27
everyone is always going to be that 15:28
unpopular in the rest of time when the 15:30
the next 10 prime ministers are going to 15:32
be unpopular. He'd just seen Andy 15:34
Burnham come along and sort of like make 15:36
a tilt for the crown. You sat down for 15:39
an interview with him after you've done 15:41
this conference speech. Like how did he 15:42
seem? And I know you can't read too much 15:44
into like how someone seems, but I'm 15:46
just intrigued like how does he wear all 15:47
of this? 15:49
I think he was chipper and relieved. I 15:50
mean I spoke to him within about half an 15:52
hour, 40 minutes of him finishing the 15:54
speech. The adrenaline was probably 15:56
pumping through him. Um but I think he 15:58
he felt pretty chipper. I think he felt 16:00
and those around him felt pretty chipper 16:03
that the nature of how the whole Andy 16:05
Burnham thing played out meant that it 16:07
actually served to rally a lot of the 16:09
parliamentary Labour party behind Kasama 16:10
even though a lot of them are very alive 16:13
what they see as his weaknesses and 16:16
there was the thing I came around away 16:18
with politically from the whole 16:20
conference was was a sense of how deep 16:21
wide and senior questions run about 16:23
whether he's the best frontman for the 16:27
the job they've set themselves which is 16:29
taking on reform. Yeah, because all of 16:30
us speculating about the prime minister 16:33
being replaced at one point. Like we all 16:35
do that. Like cabinet ministers aren't 16:36
normally meant to do that with 16:38
journalists 16:40
and and privately uh they are. 16:41
It's as it's as simple as that. Now that 16:43
doesn't mean things will change 16:45
instantly. It may also mean that things 16:47
blow over because you know party 16:48
conferences in particular are sort of 16:50
febal places of political gossip. Um but 16:51
um but that is being talked about uh by 16:56
people from the cabinet uh down 16:59
particularly in the context of what 17:01
happens next summer after those 17:03
elections in May and where Labor and 17:05
Reform and indeed others uh but where 17:07
those two parties are by then. Um, and 17:09
Fisel, I saw you posted on social media 17:13
on X, formerly known as Twitter, that 17:15
when um, Nick Robinson had interviewed K 17:17
Starmer the next day, the the bit you 17:20
picked out was Starr saying, "Oh, I'm 17:22
looking at how much we're spending on 17:24
sickness benefits. And I'm looking at 17:26
how much is being spent on young people 17:28
with mental health conditions. And I'm 17:30
wondering if maybe that money might be 17:31
spent better on treatment and support 17:33
for people with mental health conditions 17:35
as opposed to just cash handouts in the 17:37
form of benefits." What do you think 17:39
that signals? Well, and he said he was 17:41
looking at it, too. So, obviously the 17:42
context to this is that they had a 17:44
little tilt at welfare cuts. Let's call 17:45
them cuts. They called it reform, but it 17:48
was cuts. And then they retreated, 17:49
delayed. And I've never thought that 17:52
their appetite to try and do something 17:54
in this area has gone away. 17:56
I think I think what we have seen since 17:58
uh the summer has been a reframing of 18:00
the argument to say, well, what we will 18:03
do is reform. And he used the phrase 18:05
moral argument. So the moral argument 18:08
won't be that we need to save the money. 18:10
The moral argument will be it is a 18:12
disgrace that young people go straight 18:14
from college or university and are on 18:18
benefits related to mental health 18:21
because at that point the best medicine 18:23
as they would see it would be to be in a 18:26
workplace or training or something like 18:28
that 18:29
and then have a career. If you're on 18:30
benefits, he use this statistic, there 18:32
is a significant likelihood that you 18:34
could be on benefits for life if you're 18:37
then in the early 20s. So you make that 18:39
argument, 18:40
you then find some money to invest, 18:42
you've got to invest in the mental 18:44
health services 18:45
and then you save money on the welfare 18:47
bill. But what does that actually mean? 18:49
The end part of that is does that mean 18:51
actually taking those benefits away from 18:53
young people? Does it mean treating the 18:56
benefit system differently for mental 18:59
health versus physical health? Then you 19:00
get into some Well, over to Chris at 19:02
none of this is imminent, Chris, because 19:04
Steven Tims, the minister, is doing this 19:06
big review as a result of the failure to 19:08
pass the welfare reforms from earlier on 19:10
in the year. So, actually, there's 19:12
probably still another year of working 19:13
this out. 19:15
Yeah, I think that's probably broadly 19:16
right. Um, they're definitely determined 19:17
to have another go. You could see that 19:19
in the signaling when Pat McFaden was 19:21
sent to be working pension secretary in 19:22
the reshuffle. But also speaking to very 19:24
senior folk, they are going to have 19:25
another go. They acknowledged that they 19:27
got the politics badly wrong last time 19:29
because all of the focus was on saving 19:30
money rather than making that that moral 19:32
that moral argument as the as the prime 19:35
minister put it. I think also into the 19:38
mix is the movement that's going to come 19:40
on the two child benefit cap relatively 19:42
soon, next couple of months, probably at 19:44
the budget. Quite what that amounts to 19:46
is still in the works. Is there some 19:49
sort of tapering? Does it go to three 19:51
children? How do they pay for it? 19:52
Significantly expensive. Prime 19:55
Minister's always argued it's something 19:56
he wanted to do but felt that he 19:58
couldn't afford. Obviously, that's a 19:59
choice, but that was how he 20:01
he framed it. I did put it to someone 20:02
quite senior in government the other 20:04
day. I said, "If you move on the two 20:05
child benefit cap, given how how much 20:07
desire there is within the party that 20:09
that happens, does that buy you goodwill 20:11
around other changes?" And this person 20:14
who's been around the block a bit and 20:17
was mildly cynical said, "Now they just 20:18
swallow that and still argue about about 20:21
the other stuff. But I think I think 20:23
they will try and 20:25
use a movement on that with arguments 20:26
around the nature of the budget which is 20:30
which are unavoidable I think in a sort 20:32
of physical context into the short and 20:34
medium term. Not least remember those 20:36
changes they couldn't get through were 20:37
about slowing the rate of the increase 20:39
in the in the benefits bill because of 20:40
the projected number of people going on 20:42
to it. 20:44
So I think they'll they'll repackage the 20:45
argument. There'll be some things that 20:46
will uh serve they hope to persuade some 20:48
of the skeptics before. Um but it'll be 20:51
a tussle again because it's not an easy 20:54
thing for for a Labor government to do. 20:55
Uh then let's turn our attention to the 20:58
Conservatives. I only discovered today 20:59
that actually their conferences in 21:01
Manchester. I thought I was going to go 21:02
to Birmingham. So I'm glad glad I 21:04
checked. Thanks BBC Verify. Um uh and 21:06
we'll talk about the Conservatives on 21:09
newscast the podcast quite a lot in the 21:10
next few days and probably next week 21:12
once the conference is all wrapped up 21:14
and it's all happened. But Jane, the 21:15
thing that was announced today by Chem 21:17
Bedon is that she would repeal the 21:18
Climate Change Act, which is this 21:20
previous Labor government era piece of 21:23
legislation, which was supported by lots 21:25
of the other parties at the time that 21:26
set up the independent climate change 21:28
committee that had these binding climate 21:30
change targets for for each parliament 21:32
and kind of like defines what what we do 21:34
as a country about about getting to net 21:36
zero eventually. Um, do you think chemoc 21:38
has done that just because she just 21:41
doesn't like it and it's sort of that's 21:43
her personal thing or does she think 21:45
there's actually some electoral 21:47
advantage to doing something like this? 21:49
Wow. I mean Chris, you know, you got the 21:51
question is of what was in Karma's head 21:54
and can have the question of what's in 21:56
bed. Um, but the deeper issue here, 21:58
isn't it? Is like Kem Benedok is really 22:02
struggling to have cut through. She's 22:05
really struggling within the party, let 22:07
alone outside the party. And it's 22:10
extraordinary actually to be honest that 22:13
this would be the thing. I mean, it's 22:15
not going to be the thing that she's 22:17
going to spend the whole of conference 22:18
talking about. And we'll have to wait to 22:19
see. But fundamentally, the Conservative 22:21
party is trying to figure out if they're 22:24
a party that goes harder on the right or 22:27
whether they they shouldn't do that. And 22:30
that is amazing when you think, you 22:32
know, is this a party that sees itself 22:34
as the natural party of opposition or is 22:37
it a party that's vying for voters on 22:39
the fringes of British politics? And if 22:42
you just looked at that one statement 22:46
alone, you would say, well, this is a 22:48
this is a leader who thinks that she 22:50
needs to be on the fringes, 22:52
right? 22:54
Um not in the mainstream what people are 22:54
worried about. 22:56
The majority of voters are actually in 22:57
favor of something like the climate 22:58
change act. 22:59
Yes. and also that the majority of 23:00
voters aren't thinking about the climate 23:02
change act. They want to see a party in 23:04
opposition that is a potential credible 23:06
alternative government that's talking 23:09
about public services, cost of living, 23:11
the things that people really care 23:13
about. And you know what I've been told 23:15
and you know I'm an academic and I study 23:17
analysis and evidence but um you know 23:19
but the little bits of things that I 23:22
hear about Cammy Benedarch is that she's 23:24
particularly comfortable on these sort 23:27
of culture wars kinds of issues. Now, 23:29
the environment's not traditionally a 23:31
culture wars issues, but it's it's not 23:32
your sort of traditional leftright 23:35
breadandbut economics 23:36
and that she's veered away from those 23:39
kinds of breadandbut economic issues. 23:41
And and you know what she's been saying 23:43
is, well, people aren't going to look at 23:45
us now, so we need to take a pause and 23:47
come up with things and do a deep kind 23:49
of stock take and all the rest of it and 23:51
come out later. Now, that would be a bit 23:53
of a bold thing to say in normal 23:55
political times. 23:58
In political times when there is a party 24:00
on the right that is gobbling up half of 24:03
your vote, I mean, their vote has 24:06
literally halved and gone to reform in 24:08
the last year. 24:09
She doesn't have time. 24:10
She can't do that. I mean, that's just, 24:11
you know, that is just too little too 24:14
late. So, um I think she's missing 24:15
opportunities or the conservatives are 24:19
missing opportunities and not frankly 24:22
understanding the depth of their 24:23
difficulties. 24:25
Um the thing I'll be most interested to 24:26
see and feel actually feel is a better 24:28
word is and I know this is one of the 24:31
cliches of party conference season but 24:33
the sort of mood of the party at this 24:35
conference because last year the 24:38
conservative conference had had a sort 24:39
of survivors elation vibe to it. It was 24:41
quite upbeat 24:44
and the leadership contest which meant 24:44
there was a bit of excitement. 24:46
The leadership contest gave it a sense 24:47
of purpose and activists felt almost 24:48
like uh they had their conference back 24:50
because there was far few kind of 24:53
corporate lobbyists around and all that 24:54
kind of stuff. 24:55
We were seeing labor struggle and 24:56
thought they would be the natural 24:57
beneficiaries. 24:58
Yes. Because exactly Labour had had a 24:59
bumpy start. All the rouse about passes 25:01
for glasses and all that stuff of a of a 25:03
year ago. They were having a battle of 25:06
ideas which any member of a political 25:08
party tends to love. Um, so how's it 25:09
going to feel for them this year when 25:12
they've gone backwards from a dire 25:14
position? Yeah. 25:16
Um, and you know, they're not in they're 25:17
not in a internal contest. I mean, I 25:19
think the way I interpret Kami Benedo's 25:22
approach both to the climate change act 25:24
to this review that she set up to look 25:26
into the European Convention on Human 25:28
Rights, which we're expecting to 25:30
conclude and for her to decide that the 25:31
party will advocate withdrawal, is that 25:33
this is authentic bayonoism or whatever. 25:37
you know, this is this is how this is 25:39
this is her this is how she believes 25:41
politics should be done. She's making an 25:43
argument that says that hers is the only 25:45
truly conservative party. So she argues 25:49
that reform are as she would see it 25:51
fiscally incontinent throwing lots of 25:53
money around in terms of some of their 25:55
spending uh commitments. Reform would 25:56
obviously push back on that but that's 25:59
her uh political argument. But you know 26:00
the evidence suggests at the moment it's 26:04
it's not working. I think it's also true 26:05
to say historically, certainly in 26:08
contemporary history, there's never been 26:10
a harder time to lead the Conservative 26:11
party. And I and I would say on on the 26:13
this argument about climate change, I 26:16
think that the conservatives would would 26:18
bet that it is going to become an 26:20
economic issue or they're trying to make 26:22
it an economic issue and a cost of 26:23
living issue because we're now at the 26:25
stage where the sorts of changes in the 26:27
transition will start affecting ordinary 26:30
households whether it's the heat pump or 26:32
cladding or your electric vehicle. These 26:35
are decisions made by consumers that 26:37
governments have to make and I question 26:39
this will be a real test of the 26:42
government. Are they willing to push 26:43
against on this hard enough to almost 26:46
force householders to change their 26:50
homes? 26:52
How much resistance are you going to get 26:54
from that? There's a lot of political uh 26:55
potential uh benefits. Is this going to 26:58
be like a giant version of do you 27:01
remember the Oxbridge bi-election after 27:02
Boris Johnson resigned as an MP thing 27:04
boiled down to like the ultra low 27:06
emission zone and what exactly I'm not 27:08
saying it's going to work necessarily 27:10
but you can see the calculation and and 27:11
the question for me is how far do they 27:12
go because you have reform saying things 27:14
like you know writing letters to the 27:16
guys bidding on the wind farm contracts 27:18
saying we will rip these up which is a 27:21
frankly extraordinary thing for an 27:24
opposition party that aspires to 27:25
government to say we're going to rip up 27:26
contracts Now, 27:28
is there some sort of Dutch auction here 27:30
between the Conservatives and reformer 27:32
as to how far they go along this path? 27:33
I think there's a bit of that and I 27:35
think just to ex extend your thought one 27:36
further on is that some conservatives 27:39
anticipate with some of these targets 27:41
getting quite real in terms of they're 27:44
no longer on the horizon. They are much 27:46
more imminent. That the government may 27:48
so they calculate uh reach a point where 27:51
they think is this doable? Is it 27:54
practical? is it politically viable? And 27:57
then they might be able to say, "Look, 28:00
well, we we spotted this coming." But 28:01
then, who knows? 28:03
So much to talk about for the next 35 28:04
years. Um, now talking about horizons, 28:06
Chris, you mentioned this picture of the 28:08
rolling hills in Shropshire that was all 28:09
over the Labor Party conference. We 28:12
discovered where it was. It's in a place 28:13
that I thought was called Rattling Hope, 28:15
but we had a message from newscaster 28:18
David who lives there and says it's 28:19
actually pronounced ratchup 28:21
even though it is written for a really 28:24
long time and I didn't know that. 28:26
Always learning. Always learn 28:28
as in you you didn't know that's how it 28:31
was pronounced or you not heard of the 28:33
place. 28:34
That was how it was. 28:34
Yeah. Ratch up. And he says, "David, the 28:35
drive or walk over the Stretton Hills 28:37
from there to Carding Mill Valley is 28:39
highly recommended." And that's two 28:40
other places I probably mispronounced. 28:42
No, you did fine on Cardinal Valley. 28:43
Thank you very much. And thanks for 28:45
coming into the studio, Jane. 28:46
Thanks for having me. 28:48
Nice to see you, Fisel. 28:49
Great to be 28:50
and Chris, I'll see you in Manchester. 28:50
Manchester. 28:53

– English Lyrics

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[English]
This week, Kier Starmer gets tough on
Nigel Farage.
He doesn't like Britain. Doesn't believe
in Britain. Wants you to doubt it just
as much as he does.
He delivers one of his greatest hits,
but with a twist.
People like my dad. I think by now you
know what he did for a living.
And Chris Mason's dentist resigns in
disgust at his eating habits at Labour
Party conference.
Well, that's brave.
This is like an ASMR video.
We will discuss all of that and what
else we learned this week on this
episode of Newscast.
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio
and Chris in the studio.
Fisel in the newscast studio.
And please welcome Professor Jane Green
who has got many job titles. I'll read
them out. Director of Nfield Politics
Research Center at Oxford and president
of the British Poland Council.
Oh, you missed a few, but thank you very
much.
You're in a band. And you're in a band.
The risk register.
Exactly. Um, can we download your
material?
Uh, not quite yet.
Okay. Not that big.
Okay. Right. But let's focus on let's
focus on your political analysis for
this episode.
Okay. That sounds good.
Um, and I should say we did an episode
of Newscast the podcast which you can
listen to on BBC Sounds now with the
latest from the terror incident in
Manchester. So, we have been keeping an
eye on that. But in this episode, we're
going to look back at some of the
political events of the week because
Chris, you and I spent half of it in
Liverpool at the Labor Party conference.
Yeah. How do you think Kier Starmer has
emerged from that?
I think speaking to those around him and
indeed speaking to him there, he's
pleased that they have focused their
pitch, if you like, their political
pitch on reform. The prime minister has
been getting a lot of heat privately
from some pretty senior figures around
him saying it was the the Labor offer
was still still too fuzzy in their view,
particularly up against Nigel Farage,
who paints in the most primary of of
colors. We've seen a buildup to this
argument in terms of Labour making the
case that their real opponents are
reform rather than the Conservatives
which they kept labeling as irrelevant.
Uh but it came together I think in that
in that conference speech speaking to
folk since that speech uh those who
welcomed it say that's good but will he
stick to it? Uh because you know you
don't change the political narrative in
one speech. Most people miss most of
what politicians do most of the time. In
other words, does he keep prosecuting
that argument in the next six to nine
months, particularly in the countdown to
the elections in Scotland and Wales and
indeed locally in England next May? Um,
and to what and to what effect? And the
sharpening of the language I think was
particularly particularly striking, not
least the round that then bubbled up
with Nigel Farage and reform about
exactly that.
Um, Jane, you spend your whole life
crunching data about how the electorate
think about things. What data will
number 10 Downing Street have crunched
to help them inform that conference
speech that he gave?
Oh, that's a fascinating question, Adam,
because I've been wondering if they are
crunching the same data as us because
our analysis of voting behavior and
defections from Labor, so people that
voted Labor in 2024 and no longer intend
to vote Labor, tells a kind of two-prong
story. One is that Labour's vote is
splintering in all directions, but the
smallest proportion is to reform. So
before the conference, one had to wonder
why they were going for reform voters so
much. That's not about the attack on
reform, but that's just about which
voters are they most worried about. And
I think there might have been assumption
that they could almost rely on the left
to sort of rally around Labor again if
they see reform as the main threat. So
that's clearly one of the things that
they're thinking,
but it was curious how much they looked
like they were going for reform voters
because that's really tricky for Labor.
The other risk with all of this and it
is high risks you know but then
obviously you've got to make a choice
and frankly you can't ignore Farage and
you can't ignore the polls but the other
big risk is that Conservative voters are
still leaving the Conservative party.
Now that is extraordinary because I mean
it's not extraordinary when you think
about the context but if historically
you don't normally see the main
opposition party losing support when the
governing part is losing support. So,
Conservative voters are still switching
to reform and Conservative voters were
switching to reform between 2019 and
2024. So, that's a cumulative loss on
the right. Now, if you then tell
everybody because obviously Labor is not
just talking to Labor voters, they're
talking to everyone. If you tell
conservative voters reform is the main
opposition on party on the right, then
perhaps reform looks like the viable
party to choose rather than the
conservatives. That's very bad for
Labor. Very, very bad for Labor because
Labor can lose so many constituencies
just because Conservative voters move to
reform in greater numbers. And it is
interesting because actually when you're
in Labour Party conference in the hall
and surrounded by Labor activists, you
sort of feel like it's a message to
Labor activists and okay, you're
constantly thinking about the rest of
the country because we're going to
interpret it on the 6 and 10:00 news and
the Today program, but when you're in
there, you the thing that's in front of
you is the activists cheering the
messages.
I think I sometimes forget that he is
speaking to the whole country at that
point.
I mean, he's hoping to, right? Like I
mean, he's hoping that someone's
listening. I think Chris is absolutely
right. You know, we can obsess about a
speech and it's really important. It
tells us about the direction and the
strategy and the intentions, but the
real test, the proof of the pudding is
whether it gets outside of the
conference hall and whether it's
repeated and whether it's prosecuted
over and over and over again. Um, but
there was such a lot that was in that
speech that also was for the left. And I
think
that was what was fascinating that for
so there were two kind of vacuums,
weren't there? one was this vacuum over
kind of oh there's a lot of racism and
racist language and things are being
normalized here and nobody else is
saying anything about this on the left
of politics to try to counter that. So I
think that was one of the things that he
was trying to do. The other one was of
course give people on the left a reason
to vote for them. And I think that does
speak to what we see in our analysis and
it's not just our analysis of British
election study data. Of course you see
it in polling right across the piece
that Labour's vote was splintering from
the left and Labour's biggest losses are
still to undecided. So they really
needed and I still think this is un I'm
still very unclear about this. They
really needed to give people a sense of
what labor was for. And it's not I mean
you know is labor for tolerance and
economic growth. I wouldn't say economic
growth is the thing that people worried
about the most. I think it's their own
finances, their own worries about their
own financial well-being, cost of living
and everything else. Well, and and
people don't link the economy as a whole
growing to their own personal
circumstances getting
I mean I often think and forgive me for
saying this but I often think well if I
think something's nuanced and I'm an
academic and I'm meant to do nuance
then I'm not sure that you know somebody
who's not like me is going I mean it was
a very nuanced argument about how growth
translates into you know people's kind
of daily lives and in our own analysis
we we've been running some um additional
surveys with the Joseph Roundry
Foundation absolutely fascinating
economic growth is the is the top thing
that people don't understand as well.
Okay. So if you ask like how's you know
GDP, how's the economic growth going?
That's the one with the highest
proportion of people that saying I don't
know
right
you know what I know is how I feel about
the cost of living how I feel about
inflation and prices and you know people
are more willing to talk about
and there wasn't a lot about the cost of
living in Star speech there was one one
line wasn't there when he talked about
like the things that make life good like
going out for a meal or having a a trip
somewhere. Yeah. And he does mention
economic security which was a personal
moment for me but because it's something
I've been talking about for absolutely
yonks now you know the importance of
this.
Um and fisel I suppose you would be
watching Rachel Reeves' speech as much
as Karma's speech for clues about the
economy and do we have
do we get any clues for the next few
months?
I want to pick up some of what Jane
said. I think I think what I heard there
which I wondered why we haven't had this
earlier was this attempt to inject some
degree of optimism in a world
politically we've talked about this
before w where there's a lot of doomism
doom and gloom some of it came from the
government itself just over a year ago
uh and I think from their perspective it
hasn't really stopped they expect you
know and not just for political purposes
I'd imagine where they want people to
feel a little bit better about about
things. Interest rates have been cut.
Um, real income, so that's after
inflation have started to go up. No boom
here. But like certainly when they're
going down, that's a bad thing, right?
So the absence of that bad thing is
good. The absence of a sort of fiscal
crisis, a mini budget style situation is
is also good. But some sense of
optimism, we can see in some of the
economic statistics, this downtrodden
vibe is having an impact. People's
savings rates are high. They're in
double digit over 10% was the latest
figure that came out just this week and
that is what we sort of associate with
pandemic level stress. So people are a
bit worried about the economy and given
we've had five interest rate cuts, given
that real incomes are growing, given
that the economy has been growing even
if people don't feel it so much.
Um consumer confidence and things like
that are lagging behind. And so I
thought it was very I thought I'd hear
it more from the chancellor. We heard a
bit of it from the chancellor. Then the
prime minister really went for it on
this sort of optimistic tale of what
Britain
can be.
Oh, so all that stuff about like, oh,
Britain's a great country cuz the people
that chop the oranges at halftime for
their kids football match, that was
actually intended to like stimulate a
feel-good factor that makes people go
out and spend money.
And I'm
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You're making a very
sort of direct punch through argument
there. But yeah, in a sense,
I haven't heard them say that to me. But
I when I when I when I put together some
of the things holding the economy back
the economy should be doing better given
the interest rate cuts. We should see
consumer confidence ticking up. It has
not ticked up. There's some very
interesting analysis saying that some of
this might be attached to people's
political beliefs particularly amongst
the over 50s where there's a really that
is the that is the central part of low
consumer confidence is the over 50s. And
is there something to do with political
beliefs about the country being rubbish?
Basically, even though things are very
stressed for younger people, in fact,
their consumer confidence has gone up
with their incomes. So, I think I I
detect there could have been a conscious
strategy to g people up a little bit.
I'm also conscious of the return of the
b- word, Brexit. You think about Jane's
analysis of who they're trying to win
with this strategy. I was very struck in
the interviews by the prime minister in
Rachel Reef's speech. This thing about
the youth scheme with Europe really
leaning in to Brexit having not worked.
I'll just put it like that in a way they
maybe wouldn't have done before the
election because they didn't want to
offend those reform voters. Right.
I think Yeah. I I think there's
something in that. Not least because I
think they realize that they cannot they
cannot sharpen a political argument with
reform and then walk past the question
of Brexit. I think coupled with the fact
I think they've been inclined to want to
do it for a while and have just been
trying to find the the space to do it.
Just picking up on your point about the
optimism and the oranges. There's an
overlap here. No, no, the oranges thing
is is an interesting part of this
because I think there's an overlap. We I
think we mentioned this on newscast the
other day, Adam. So firstly, I think
there was an awareness that they did
want to sound more optimistic, but
didn't want to fall into the trap that
they felt that Rishi Sunnak occasionally
fell into, which was to seize upon a
particular bit of economic data and and
this is to caricature what he would have
done, but to to to the the political
danger of overdoing the positive if
people are feeling negative. Mhm.
But I think where the overlap with the
oranges comes in and indeed the image
from Shroptshire, the rolling English
countryside of Shroptshire, which later
which is this image that popped up all
around uh the conference center in
Liverpool was this articulation that
they were attempting to find around how
they see patriotism
uh in in this era where there is contest
around flags and we saw the Union flag
and indeed the flags of the UK nations
very prominently in the audience uh
during the prime minister of speech. So
I think there's an overlap there. I
think that the the the that to to to
overdo seizing on that quarter of orange
is to both lean into a sense of optimism
but also identity and belonging and who
we are and and and I think the word that
neatly encapsulate both encapsulates
both of those is pride. That's what they
were trying to get to.
You know this I think you know this
question about mentioning Brexit. It's
partly because people have come to the
conclusion that Brexit hasn't worked for
many people. It's partly because
Labour's voters are overwhelmingly those
voters who either voted remain or would
againain. Um but it's also something
else, isn't it? It's there's two things
I think. One is people just didn't want
to go there again.
Completely.
Um they didn't want to go there again.
So imagine framing another general
election campaign as a little bit like
that one. you know, where you've got
kind of the same guy Nigel Farage on the
Brexit side promising a load of stuff
just as in Brexit that a lot of that did
not happen and then you've got this kind
of binary choice. I mean, that's how I
kind of almost think about the next
explain something that I'd find a bit
mysterious. The weekend before Labour
Party conference where Rachel Reeves's
big interview, the centerpiece in the
Times was the youth mobility scheme with
the EU which has already been announced,
not actually negotiated with the EU, but
we knew a version of it was coming. And
that's the thing that she sort of
splashed on and then ministers were
talking about a lot those those days
around it. I'm like why? But now I
understand why.
Well well well there's the dividing line
politically. Economically, they hope
that it will unlock a return of serve
from the Europeans that can open up some
economic wins. For example, getting rid
of almost all checks on food imports and
exports. Prime Minister said that that
in some of his interviews that that
would be a win for food prices, help uh
British manufacturing industry um be
part of uh consortia that are bidding
for the massive boom now in rearming
Europe. um there's going to be tens of
billions, hundreds of billions. You want
British manufacturers at the heart of
that at the minute we're not allowed to
be part of these consortium
that is open as a negotiating point that
will have been heard in Brussels. Now
there's also now traditionally we may
have said only a year ago we would have
said well then there's all sorts of like
are you getting too close to to
Brussels? Is that going to offend the
reform voters? Are they going to go
there? And I just note uh Mr. Bernham
popping up in in a in a and saying he
thought we were going to rejoin in his
lifetime, which he you never would have
got a senior Labor figure even going
there a year ago.
And Bernham was saying a lot.
No, he was saying a lot. But I'm just
saying like the dynamic if this is if
this is a new dynamic if I wrong. If
we're right,
then coming up on that side of the
Labour party, which is where the
action's going to be for the government,
becomes a bit of a competition. And do
you get the same as happened for the
Tories
in the last decade happened to Labor
being outflanked
and and Chris this is I mean this is a
ridiculous question to ask because I
don't know how you can't peer into like
Kstarmmer's brain directly but he's
under a lot of fire. We had that sort
he's very unpopular in the polls
although we could talk about whether
everyone is always going to be that
unpopular in the rest of time when the
the next 10 prime ministers are going to
be unpopular. He'd just seen Andy
Burnham come along and sort of like make
a tilt for the crown. You sat down for
an interview with him after you've done
this conference speech. Like how did he
seem? And I know you can't read too much
into like how someone seems, but I'm
just intrigued like how does he wear all
of this?
I think he was chipper and relieved. I
mean I spoke to him within about half an
hour, 40 minutes of him finishing the
speech. The adrenaline was probably
pumping through him. Um but I think he
he felt pretty chipper. I think he felt
and those around him felt pretty chipper
that the nature of how the whole Andy
Burnham thing played out meant that it
actually served to rally a lot of the
parliamentary Labour party behind Kasama
even though a lot of them are very alive
what they see as his weaknesses and
there was the thing I came around away
with politically from the whole
conference was was a sense of how deep
wide and senior questions run about
whether he's the best frontman for the
the job they've set themselves which is
taking on reform. Yeah, because all of
us speculating about the prime minister
being replaced at one point. Like we all
do that. Like cabinet ministers aren't
normally meant to do that with
journalists
and and privately uh they are.
It's as it's as simple as that. Now that
doesn't mean things will change
instantly. It may also mean that things
blow over because you know party
conferences in particular are sort of
febal places of political gossip. Um but
um but that is being talked about uh by
people from the cabinet uh down
particularly in the context of what
happens next summer after those
elections in May and where Labor and
Reform and indeed others uh but where
those two parties are by then. Um, and
Fisel, I saw you posted on social media
on X, formerly known as Twitter, that
when um, Nick Robinson had interviewed K
Starmer the next day, the the bit you
picked out was Starr saying, "Oh, I'm
looking at how much we're spending on
sickness benefits. And I'm looking at
how much is being spent on young people
with mental health conditions. And I'm
wondering if maybe that money might be
spent better on treatment and support
for people with mental health conditions
as opposed to just cash handouts in the
form of benefits." What do you think
that signals? Well, and he said he was
looking at it, too. So, obviously the
context to this is that they had a
little tilt at welfare cuts. Let's call
them cuts. They called it reform, but it
was cuts. And then they retreated,
delayed. And I've never thought that
their appetite to try and do something
in this area has gone away.
I think I think what we have seen since
uh the summer has been a reframing of
the argument to say, well, what we will
do is reform. And he used the phrase
moral argument. So the moral argument
won't be that we need to save the money.
The moral argument will be it is a
disgrace that young people go straight
from college or university and are on
benefits related to mental health
because at that point the best medicine
as they would see it would be to be in a
workplace or training or something like
that
and then have a career. If you're on
benefits, he use this statistic, there
is a significant likelihood that you
could be on benefits for life if you're
then in the early 20s. So you make that
argument,
you then find some money to invest,
you've got to invest in the mental
health services
and then you save money on the welfare
bill. But what does that actually mean?
The end part of that is does that mean
actually taking those benefits away from
young people? Does it mean treating the
benefit system differently for mental
health versus physical health? Then you
get into some Well, over to Chris at
none of this is imminent, Chris, because
Steven Tims, the minister, is doing this
big review as a result of the failure to
pass the welfare reforms from earlier on
in the year. So, actually, there's
probably still another year of working
this out.
Yeah, I think that's probably broadly
right. Um, they're definitely determined
to have another go. You could see that
in the signaling when Pat McFaden was
sent to be working pension secretary in
the reshuffle. But also speaking to very
senior folk, they are going to have
another go. They acknowledged that they
got the politics badly wrong last time
because all of the focus was on saving
money rather than making that that moral
that moral argument as the as the prime
minister put it. I think also into the
mix is the movement that's going to come
on the two child benefit cap relatively
soon, next couple of months, probably at
the budget. Quite what that amounts to
is still in the works. Is there some
sort of tapering? Does it go to three
children? How do they pay for it?
Significantly expensive. Prime
Minister's always argued it's something
he wanted to do but felt that he
couldn't afford. Obviously, that's a
choice, but that was how he
he framed it. I did put it to someone
quite senior in government the other
day. I said, "If you move on the two
child benefit cap, given how how much
desire there is within the party that
that happens, does that buy you goodwill
around other changes?" And this person
who's been around the block a bit and
was mildly cynical said, "Now they just
swallow that and still argue about about
the other stuff. But I think I think
they will try and
use a movement on that with arguments
around the nature of the budget which is
which are unavoidable I think in a sort
of physical context into the short and
medium term. Not least remember those
changes they couldn't get through were
about slowing the rate of the increase
in the in the benefits bill because of
the projected number of people going on
to it.
So I think they'll they'll repackage the
argument. There'll be some things that
will uh serve they hope to persuade some
of the skeptics before. Um but it'll be
a tussle again because it's not an easy
thing for for a Labor government to do.
Uh then let's turn our attention to the
Conservatives. I only discovered today
that actually their conferences in
Manchester. I thought I was going to go
to Birmingham. So I'm glad glad I
checked. Thanks BBC Verify. Um uh and
we'll talk about the Conservatives on
newscast the podcast quite a lot in the
next few days and probably next week
once the conference is all wrapped up
and it's all happened. But Jane, the
thing that was announced today by Chem
Bedon is that she would repeal the
Climate Change Act, which is this
previous Labor government era piece of
legislation, which was supported by lots
of the other parties at the time that
set up the independent climate change
committee that had these binding climate
change targets for for each parliament
and kind of like defines what what we do
as a country about about getting to net
zero eventually. Um, do you think chemoc
has done that just because she just
doesn't like it and it's sort of that's
her personal thing or does she think
there's actually some electoral
advantage to doing something like this?
Wow. I mean Chris, you know, you got the
question is of what was in Karma's head
and can have the question of what's in
bed. Um, but the deeper issue here,
isn't it? Is like Kem Benedok is really
struggling to have cut through. She's
really struggling within the party, let
alone outside the party. And it's
extraordinary actually to be honest that
this would be the thing. I mean, it's
not going to be the thing that she's
going to spend the whole of conference
talking about. And we'll have to wait to
see. But fundamentally, the Conservative
party is trying to figure out if they're
a party that goes harder on the right or
whether they they shouldn't do that. And
that is amazing when you think, you
know, is this a party that sees itself
as the natural party of opposition or is
it a party that's vying for voters on
the fringes of British politics? And if
you just looked at that one statement
alone, you would say, well, this is a
this is a leader who thinks that she
needs to be on the fringes,
right?
Um not in the mainstream what people are
worried about.
The majority of voters are actually in
favor of something like the climate
change act.
Yes. and also that the majority of
voters aren't thinking about the climate
change act. They want to see a party in
opposition that is a potential credible
alternative government that's talking
about public services, cost of living,
the things that people really care
about. And you know what I've been told
and you know I'm an academic and I study
analysis and evidence but um you know
but the little bits of things that I
hear about Cammy Benedarch is that she's
particularly comfortable on these sort
of culture wars kinds of issues. Now,
the environment's not traditionally a
culture wars issues, but it's it's not
your sort of traditional leftright
breadandbut economics
and that she's veered away from those
kinds of breadandbut economic issues.
And and you know what she's been saying
is, well, people aren't going to look at
us now, so we need to take a pause and
come up with things and do a deep kind
of stock take and all the rest of it and
come out later. Now, that would be a bit
of a bold thing to say in normal
political times.
In political times when there is a party
on the right that is gobbling up half of
your vote, I mean, their vote has
literally halved and gone to reform in
the last year.
She doesn't have time.
She can't do that. I mean, that's just,
you know, that is just too little too
late. So, um I think she's missing
opportunities or the conservatives are
missing opportunities and not frankly
understanding the depth of their
difficulties.
Um the thing I'll be most interested to
see and feel actually feel is a better
word is and I know this is one of the
cliches of party conference season but
the sort of mood of the party at this
conference because last year the
conservative conference had had a sort
of survivors elation vibe to it. It was
quite upbeat
and the leadership contest which meant
there was a bit of excitement.
The leadership contest gave it a sense
of purpose and activists felt almost
like uh they had their conference back
because there was far few kind of
corporate lobbyists around and all that
kind of stuff.
We were seeing labor struggle and
thought they would be the natural
beneficiaries.
Yes. Because exactly Labour had had a
bumpy start. All the rouse about passes
for glasses and all that stuff of a of a
year ago. They were having a battle of
ideas which any member of a political
party tends to love. Um, so how's it
going to feel for them this year when
they've gone backwards from a dire
position? Yeah.
Um, and you know, they're not in they're
not in a internal contest. I mean, I
think the way I interpret Kami Benedo's
approach both to the climate change act
to this review that she set up to look
into the European Convention on Human
Rights, which we're expecting to
conclude and for her to decide that the
party will advocate withdrawal, is that
this is authentic bayonoism or whatever.
you know, this is this is how this is
this is her this is how she believes
politics should be done. She's making an
argument that says that hers is the only
truly conservative party. So she argues
that reform are as she would see it
fiscally incontinent throwing lots of
money around in terms of some of their
spending uh commitments. Reform would
obviously push back on that but that's
her uh political argument. But you know
the evidence suggests at the moment it's
it's not working. I think it's also true
to say historically, certainly in
contemporary history, there's never been
a harder time to lead the Conservative
party. And I and I would say on on the
this argument about climate change, I
think that the conservatives would would
bet that it is going to become an
economic issue or they're trying to make
it an economic issue and a cost of
living issue because we're now at the
stage where the sorts of changes in the
transition will start affecting ordinary
households whether it's the heat pump or
cladding or your electric vehicle. These
are decisions made by consumers that
governments have to make and I question
this will be a real test of the
government. Are they willing to push
against on this hard enough to almost
force householders to change their
homes?
How much resistance are you going to get
from that? There's a lot of political uh
potential uh benefits. Is this going to
be like a giant version of do you
remember the Oxbridge bi-election after
Boris Johnson resigned as an MP thing
boiled down to like the ultra low
emission zone and what exactly I'm not
saying it's going to work necessarily
but you can see the calculation and and
the question for me is how far do they
go because you have reform saying things
like you know writing letters to the
guys bidding on the wind farm contracts
saying we will rip these up which is a
frankly extraordinary thing for an
opposition party that aspires to
government to say we're going to rip up
contracts Now,
is there some sort of Dutch auction here
between the Conservatives and reformer
as to how far they go along this path?
I think there's a bit of that and I
think just to ex extend your thought one
further on is that some conservatives
anticipate with some of these targets
getting quite real in terms of they're
no longer on the horizon. They are much
more imminent. That the government may
so they calculate uh reach a point where
they think is this doable? Is it
practical? is it politically viable? And
then they might be able to say, "Look,
well, we we spotted this coming." But
then, who knows?
So much to talk about for the next 35
years. Um, now talking about horizons,
Chris, you mentioned this picture of the
rolling hills in Shropshire that was all
over the Labor Party conference. We
discovered where it was. It's in a place
that I thought was called Rattling Hope,
but we had a message from newscaster
David who lives there and says it's
actually pronounced ratchup
even though it is written for a really
long time and I didn't know that.
Always learning. Always learn
as in you you didn't know that's how it
was pronounced or you not heard of the
place.
That was how it was.
Yeah. Ratch up. And he says, "David, the
drive or walk over the Stretton Hills
from there to Carding Mill Valley is
highly recommended." And that's two
other places I probably mispronounced.
No, you did fine on Cardinal Valley.
Thank you very much. And thanks for
coming into the studio, Jane.
Thanks for having me.
Nice to see you, Fisel.
Great to be
and Chris, I'll see you in Manchester.
Manchester.

Key Vocabulary

Start Practicing
Vocabulary Meanings

speech

/spiːtʃ/

A2
  • noun
  • - a formal talk given to an audience

party

/ˈpɑːrti/

A1
  • noun
  • - a political group or group of people

conference

/ˈkɒnfərəns/

B1
  • noun
  • - a formal meeting for discussion

voters

/ˈvəʊtəz/

B1
  • noun
  • - people who vote in elections

government

/ˈɡʌvənmənt/

B1
  • noun
  • - the group of people who govern a country

reform

/rɪˈfɔːm/

B2
  • verb
  • - to make changes to improve something
  • noun
  • - a change that improves something

economy

/ɪˈkɒnəmi/

B1
  • noun
  • - the system of making and trading things of value

election

/ɪˈlɛkʃən/

B1
  • noun
  • - the process of choosing a leader or government

brexit

/ˈbrɛksɪt/

C1
  • noun
  • - the UK's exit from the European Union

optimism

/ˈɒptɪmɪzəm/

B2
  • noun
  • - hopefulness about the future

data

/ˈdeɪtə/

B1
  • noun
  • - information collected for analysis

risk

/rɪsk/

A2
  • noun
  • - the possibility of something bad happening

emergent

/ɪˈmɜːdʒənt/

C1
  • adjective
  • - coming into existence or prominence

focus

/ˈfəʊkəs/

B1
  • verb
  • - to concentrate attention on something
  • noun
  • - the main point of attention

rally

/ˈræli/

B2
  • verb
  • - to bring people together for support

striking

/ˈstraɪkɪŋ/

B2
  • adjective
  • - attracting attention due to unusualness

splintering

/ˈsplɪntərɪŋ/

C1
  • adjective
  • - breaking into small pieces or dividing

patriotic

/ˌpeɪtriˈɒtɪk/

B2
  • adjective
  • - showing love and support for one's country

mood

/muːd/

B1
  • noun
  • - the feeling or atmosphere of a situation

credible

/ˈkrɛdəbəl/

B2
  • adjective
  • - able to be believed or trusted

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