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Lyrics & Translation

[English]

There have been at least six incursions

by Russian air assets into NATO airspace

in just the past 2 months, including the

flight of 19 Russian drones into Polish

airspace. Just this week, Polish fighter

jets have launched twice to intercept

Russian intelligence aircraft flying

over the Baltic Sea without

transponders. So, what is Russia's game

plan? How does NATO defend? And just how

dangerous a moment is this in terms of

escalation? He's Mikey Kate, former RAF

pilot and military planner. I'm

Christian Fraser. We'll break it all

down for you. This is the security

brief.

[Music]

>> Mikey, this game of cat and mouse that

the Russians are playing with the West,

that's been ongoing since NATO's

inception in 1949. What's different

about this period that we're in now? I

think it's twofold, Christian. I think

the first part is that incursions by

Russian jets inside NATO sovereign

airspace have been ratcheted up

considerably. But then also you've got

the tensions of Russia's consistent

bombardment of Ukraine with drones,

cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and

hypersonic missiles. Let's take a listen

to the Polish foreign minister

addressing an emergency UN Security

Council meeting.

>> I have only one request to the Russian

government. If another missile or

aircraft enters our space without

permission, deliberately or by mistake

and gets shot down and the wreckage

falls on NATO territory, please don't

come here to whine about it. You have

been warned.

>> Can we look at those latest incursions?

What do you see in them? Yeah, I think

what's we will um what's notable about

them are sort of the variety of

situations in which breaches uh are

taking place. Um let's take a look. So

the first one I want to address was back

in May. It was a SU35 Russian jet uh

that was effectively doing a show of

force inside Estonian territorial waters

in the Gulf of Finland. And it was doing

that because Russia had a shadow tanker.

It's one of these tankers that are being

used to circumn sanctions. Uh, and the

SU35 was doing a show of force because

Estonian maritime naval security forces

were trying to apprehend the tanker.

>> Is there anything unusual about that?

>> I mean, not so much in what's called

QRA, quick reaction alert. It was only

one SU35

that breached Estonian airspace.

Traditionally, when you have quick

reaction alert, whether it's NATO or

whether it's Russia, they'll always

launch as a pair. So, two aircraft. And

the reason for that is mutual support,

especially if they're going into

something that's potentially

confrontational.

>> But then we had these Russian drones

coming into Polish airspace.

>> Yeah. Significant amount, 19 of them,

um, unannounced, called the Gerber

drone. I think we can take a look at

that. Now, this is similar in shape,

Christian, to what's called the Garand

2. The Garand 2 was a drone that was

made off an Iranian um, blueprint called

the Shahed 136. The thing about the

Gerber is it's got a smaller payload and

it's made out of polystyrene and

plywood. Now, from the Gerbras that have

been shot down and analyzed, the big

analysis comes basically is it's a tenth

cheaper to make this Gerbra drone. So,

you've got additional drones that can

just be used alongside the Garand 2s.

The Gerantos are longer range, bigger

payload, more deadly if you like, but it

just throws more drones up there and

overwhelms air defenses. But then you've

got these these three Russian jets

inside Estonian airspace. Inside

Estonian airspace. These were three MiG

31 Foxhound aircraft. Massively

significant because they've got a speed

of about Mac 2.8. So they're incredibly

fast. Important to note that that speed

does come down depending on the weapons

fit of the aircraft. But the big thing

here is that it was 12 minutes inside

sovereign airspace with their

transponders turned off. Now, let's just

talk to the audience here about what a

transponder is. It's a small box in the

cockpit. Every aircraft has has them,

both military and general air traffic,

which are the airlines that we fly. And

it allows the pilots of the crew to put

in a fourdigit code. That four-digit

code is usually given to them by uh area

radar. And then what comes up, it's

called secondary surveillance radar,

will pick up the four-digit code on the

area radar screen and then they can

possibly identify the jet. It's not just

about identifying its location. This box

has the ability under what's called Mo

Charlie to put a height on there as

well. So none of that information was on

there. The jets will have been picked up

through primary radar. So just come up

as a little blip.

>> And then two Russian aircraft in

Lithuanian airspace.

>> Yeah, this was this was less of a

threat. It was a SU30 Russian fighter

jet and it was actually tanking off the

back of what's called an illusion 78,

which is a Russian tanker. um that was

only 700 meters inside Lithu Lithuanian

airspace and it was only there for about

18 seconds and that was down in Russia's

exclave region called Kinenrad. So in

terms of threat posture uh likely a

mistake um however you know inside

sovereign airspace nevertheless

>> nonetheless

what all this shows is that the tempo is

increasing. Yeah, it is. Um, the tempo

is increasing. The same day as the Sue30

and the Illusian 78, there were two

Russian fighter jets that violated an

economic security zone over a Polish

drilling uh platform uh inside the

Baltic Sea. Well, let's talk about the

latest incursions uh that took place

this week over the Baltic Sea. Uh

Russian reconnaissance flights

intercepted twice by Polish uh fighters.

Uh we can speak to General Diminoski.

He's the vice chief of defense in

Poland. Thank you very much for being

with us on the security brief. What can

you tell us about these latest

incursions and how the Polish Air Force

responded?

>> As the foreigners, good afternoon. Thank

you very much for having me. Now

answering your question, of course,

Polish responded according to the our

national and allied procedures which are

implemented in integrated air defense

system and we sent off our uh quick

reaction alert

[Music]

aircraft which intercepted and escorted

the the Russian reconnaissance aircraft.

They have not violated our airspace.

There was no in incursion. However, they

uh didn't fly according to the flight

plan and they uh cause uh also threat to

the air traffic because they have uh

they transporters turned off.

>> It's not just military assets. We've had

Lithuanian airspace closed this week by

smuggling balloons, helium balloons um

launched from areas that are in control

of the Belucian, the Bellarusian KGB. Um

NATO says it's time to hit back, but

what does that actually mean

practically? You know, what is an

effective proportionate response that

would deter these kind of hybrid attacks

without sort of triggering an

escalation?

>> That's a very good question and it is

kind of challenge for us as NATO because

Russia is has never been onedirectional

and one-dimensional. They always been

multi-directional, multi-dimensional. So

our response should be exactly the same

and they will apply different type of

assets as you said there will be uh

military assets there will be some kind

of service assets or maybe civilian

assets just to cause uh problems for us

for for NATO. So our response should be

uh multi-layered I would say. So first

and foremost we should u be very robust

firm but at the same time resolute with

our military response and so we always

should react in a very uh very at the

speed of relevance very quick and very

fast. Then of course there's additional

layer about building up our capabilities

along the eastern flank and and around

our key military and civilian

infrastructure. So it will be a little

bit bit longer term uh endeavor just to

boost up our uh air defense capabilities

and finally we will have some kind of

strategic response which will be uh a

coupling of political diplomatic

strategic messaging and at the same time

building up strategic capabilities uh

not only to show Russia our deterrence

by denial but also to show Russia our

strength and if necessary

possibility of use other assets to to

protect our sovereignity and to protect

our territory.

>> Just just just on that point, General,

we just played a clip of the the Polish

foreign minister saying, "Don't whine uh

within the Security Council if we shoot

down one of your jets." I I mean, do you

feel in a military capacity that you

have a green light to shoot down one of

these jets if you were pushed to the

furthest extent?

>> Well, the primary task of the Polish

armed forces and the alliance is to

protect and defend our territorian

sovereignity and we will always follow

the rules and procedures so uh uh in

order to achieve this uh primary task

and we'll always act according by the

books. But whenever there is a very

important a very deep incursion into

Polish territory or revel territory we

will act accordingly. So we will uh take

all the measures to stop the the danger

and stop the traffic threat.

>> General it's it's Mikey again. Um former

RAF pilot. I've flown in Typhoon. Uh I

understand the graduated and

proportionate options that are available

to not just UK fighter pilots on quick

reaction alert but to any fighter pilots

across NATO defense uh that are in this

position. Um unless the Russians know

that the graduated and proportionate

response can be up to and inclus

including the use of lethal force. Um,

how do you how do you portray or how do

you deliver that intent to Putin to let

him know that actually you actually will

take what is necessary which can include

the shooting down of a jet. How do you

deliver that message?

>> That's a very tough question again

because it is all about strategic

communication. So it is about feelings

and perception not about physical

actions. We can only show show our uh

determination by training and exercises

and the posture of our forces. So as I

said we have to be very determined and

resolved in our reactions and we show we

have to show them that we can act at the

speed of relevance that we can hear they

can we can see them and we have assets

ready to respond and it it should be

always act according to the books but we

should be always following their actions

showing our readiness and of course the

rest is kind of the per perception and

part of the story is also unity among

our allies that there is one uh

united message sent to Mr. Putin that we

are united and will act together and we

are showing that to Russia already

because we have a great support here

with Poland from our allies in enhancing

our air defense both from the air

airborne assets and groundbased assets.

So all together I think combining those

military exercises, military posture and

uh military missions together with a

strong strategic communication, we might

be uh able to get across our message to

Mr. Putin and to Kremlin.

>> It's really interesting. General

Demanowski, it's really good to talk to

you. Thank you for coming on the

Security Brief.

>> Thank you very much for having me.

Mikey, there are obviously sensitive

defense reasons why the general can't go

into some of that detail. C. Can we can

we take a more in-depth look at what

assets NATO does have to deter the

Russians?

>> Yeah. Uh significant actually. Let's

start with with home territory uh in the

UK. Uh there's two bases. RAF Lossy

Mouth right in the north of Scotland.

That's called QR quick reaction alert

north. Uh and then there's a base in the

south called RAF Coningsby which is QR

South. And you'll have two typhoons uh

that swap effectively um periodically to

make sure or ensure that there is uh

quick reaction alert coverage 365 days

24/7 um basically protecting UK

sovereign airspace. Now in touch with

that or along with that you've got

Norway. Norway operates the F-35

fighters uh at a base called Eveness.

That's in the north of Norway. And I

think we can see on a map here just how

north that is. Now Norway's Norway's

geography is really interesting. It goes

all the way across the Northern Cape

across the top of Sweden and shares a

very small border with Russia. And what

you've got on there is what's called an

IATS, an integrated air defense network.

So you'll have Norwegian radars right on

the tip probing and looking out, looking

for Russian assets going west. they'll

pick them up and then what they'll do is

they'll effectively hand over to UK

radar and they'll they'll manage and

intercept on it. The Swedes have um two

air bases again, one in the north, one

in the south. Uh their quick reaction

alert jets are the JS39 Grippen. Uh and

then you've got Finland and as you'd

expect, Finland sharing a 1300 km border

with Russia. They've got four air bases

and they're operating the F-18. And

what's interesting about the F-18 is the

the Finns have become really adept at

operating these outside of airfields and

deploying them to forests so they can

operate off roads. Tell me about the

Typhoon because as you've just been

explaining to the general, you've flown

in them. So, what sort of capability do

they carry?

>> Yeah, I've flown alongside the pilots

looking at basically how they intercept

an aircraft all the way outside of

visual range. Um, and I think we can see

a picture of or a graphic of the J the

Typhoon jet here. Basically, it's a mix

of missiles. You've got a mix of

missiles that give it what's called BVR,

beyond visual r beyond visual range.

Typhoon, for example, is using the

medium missile that goes out to about

125 mil 25 miles. And then you'll have

shorter range uh missiles again

depending on the fit. That's called the

Azram. They can go out to about 5 to 20

km. And then there's a Mouser gun on the

side. So there are options depending on

how the um the range comes down.

>> Um let's take the the example of the

three MiGs that that came into Estonian

airspace

in terms of the options that the NATO

pilots have.

What do they have to respond to the

threat and and what are they looking at

when they're in the air? Yeah, it's a

great question and I've spoken to um

spoken to sources who are currently

flying QR in the UK um because the

scenarios now are quite different as you

pointed out earlier on in the program.

Um quick reaction alert and intercepts

have been going on for over 50 years.

It's when foreign aircraft or enemy

aircraft um are then coming and

loitering inside sovereign airspace. And

so if you speak to the QR pilots at the

moment, especially from the UK, it's a

graduated and proportionate response,

but it's deescalatory. Okay. So that the

last thing they want is one the UK guys

is want to provoke some form of response

that would escalate rapidly. So jets

will get airborne. Uh when we went out

into operation chessman in Poland, the

uh the British and the Swedish uh jets

were getting airborne without radar on.

The first thing they'll do is they'll

have a look at what arament the Russian

jets have. So if we take a look at this

picture of a MiG 31 Foxhound, that's

actually got a a Kinsel hypersonic

missile on it. Now that would deemed way

higher threat than if the MIG31 had

airto-air. Well, it's an airto ground

missile. It's a hypersonic. It's got

range. So, you know,

>> so it's not coming to engage aircraft.

It's looking at targets on the ground

>> potentially. And so,

>> so if you saw that as a as a as a NATO

pilot, you'd you'd have real concerns.

>> You'd have real concerns. So, you'd get

up close. You'd identify back to the

chain of command what missiles it had on

it. Um, if it had air-to-air missiles

and the and the MIG is pointing north,

leaving sovereign airspace, that's

deescalating. If it's got an airto

ground missile on it and it's heading in

towards say a major urban center, that

would be considered escalatory. And so

you know it's a very very gentle

sensitive operation to work out what the

proportionate response is going to be.

>> So beyond the QA QR procedure that

you're talking about we now have

operation sentry. I mean what what added

capability does that give to NATO?

>> Yeah operation eastern sententury. Um so

the Brits basically have now been flying

over Polish airspace typhoons with a

Voyager aircraft which is a tanker. Um

you have uh the French have basically

deployed three Rafale jets into Poland

against again air defense fighters.

Germany have contributed four typhoons.

Denmark have provided F-16 fighter jets.

But it's not just air assets we're

talking about. We're talking about

frigots. So Denmark have provided um

frigot as as well as Germany. And these

are air defense, right? So they got

really powerful air defense radars on

these frigots which again helps build

that common operational air picture, the

integrated air defense as we spoke

about.

>> Mikey, as ever, thank you very much.

That is it from the security brief. Just

a reminder, you can catch up on all the

episodes on YouTube. Next time we're

going to be looking at Donald Trump's

recent pronouncement on nuclear testing.

Uh maybe probing the concerns you have

if you've watched the House of Dynamite.

Food for thought. We'll see you next

time.

Key Vocabulary

Vocabulary	Meanings
incursion /ɪnˈkɜːrʒən/ C1	noun - an instance of someone or something crossing established boundaries
airspace /ˈɛrˌspeɪs/ B2	noun - the portion of the atmosphere controlled by a country or authority for aircraft
drone /droʊn/ B2	noun - an unmanned aerial vehicle noun - a male bee
jet /dʒɛt/ A2	noun - a fast aircraft noun - a stream of liquid or gas under high pressure
missile /ˈmɪsəl/ B2	noun - a weapon that is guided or propelled
intercept /ˈɪntərˌsɛpt/ B2	verb - to stop or catch something before it reaches its destination
aircraft /ˈɛrˌkræft/ A2	noun - a machine that can fly
escalation /ˌɛskəˈleɪʃən/ C1	noun - an increase in intensity or extent
defend /dɪˈfɛnd/ A2	verb - to protect against attack
response /rɪˈspɑns/ B1	noun - an answer or reaction
Russian /ˈrʌʃən/ B1	adjective - relating to Russia
sovereign /ˈsɑvərɪn/ C1	adjective - possessing supreme power
threat /θrɛt/ B1	noun - a statement of an intention to harm
reconnaissance /rɪˈkɒnɪsəns/ C1	noun - military observation of a region to gain information
breach /britʃ/ B2	noun - an opening, especially one made by breaking verb - to break through or open
violate /ˈvaɪəˌleɪt/ B2	verb - to break or fail to comply with a rule
tempo /ˈtɛmpoʊ/ B2	noun - the speed of activity or a rate of progress
overwhelm /ˌoʊvərˈwɛlm/ B2	verb - to defeat completely
deterrent /dɪˈtɜrənt/ C1	adjective - acting as a deterrent
provoke /prəˈvoʊk/ B2	verb - to deliberately make someone angry or cause trouble