[English]
>> IS IT NOT GOOD?
>> IT IS MIRACULOUS.
>> IT IS MIRACULOUS.
CHARLES: ALL RIGHT SO MY NEXT
CHARLES: ALL RIGHT SO MY NEXT
GUEST SAYS NAVIGATING
GUEST SAYS NAVIGATING
THIS MARKET, SHE’S BEEN
THIS MARKET, SHE’S BEEN
NAVIGATING IT FOR A LONG TIME,
NAVIGATING IT FOR A LONG TIME,
AND WHILE SHE REMAINS
AND WHILE SHE REMAINS
CONSTRUCTIVE SHE DOES SAY THAT
CONSTRUCTIVE SHE DOES SAY THAT
THE SET-UP FOR CONTINUED NEAR
THE SET-UP FOR CONTINUED NEAR
SIDE UPSIDE IS MUCH MORE
SIDE UPSIDE IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT THAN ITS BEEN SO LET’S
DIFFICULT THAN ITS BEEN SO LET’S
BRING IN PARTNERS GROUP MANAGING
BRING IN PARTNERS GROUP MANAGING
DIRECTOR CHIEF INVESTMENT
DIRECTOR CHIEF INVESTMENT
STRATEGIST FOR PRIVATE WEALTH,
STRATEGIST FOR PRIVATE WEALTH,
ANASTASIA AMAROSA, AND LET’S
ANASTASIA AMAROSA, AND LET’S
GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES
GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES
SO WE STARTED TO OFF AND CHINA
SO WE STARTED TO OFF AND CHINA
GOING AFTER RARE EARTH YESTERDAY
GOING AFTER RARE EARTH YESTERDAY
AND TODAY THEY ARE GOING AFTER
AND TODAY THEY ARE GOING AFTER
CHIPS COMPANIES, NVIDIA,
CHIPS COMPANIES, NVIDIA,
QUALCOMM.
QUALCOMM.
PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS OKAY YOU
PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS OKAY YOU
KNOW WHAT?
KNOW WHAT?
WE MAY HAVE TO GO MAXIMUM
WE MAY HAVE TO GO MAXIMUM
TARIFFS AND SETS UP THIS FREE
TARIFFS AND SETS UP THIS FREE
FALL IN THE MARKET, A PULLBACK
FALL IN THE MARKET, A PULLBACK
IN THE MARKET.
IN THE MARKET.
>> WELL THE OPERATIVE WORD
>> WELL THE OPERATIVE WORD
"MAY" DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN
"MAY" DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN
WE AREN’T GETTING A DEAL BUT
WE AREN’T GETTING A DEAL BUT
THE MARKETS ARE REACTING TO ANY
THE MARKETS ARE REACTING TO ANY
HEADLINE TO YOUR POINT CHARLES.
HEADLINE TO YOUR POINT CHARLES.
THE MARKET WAS SETUP
THE MARKET WAS SETUP
FOR PERFECTION HERE AND
FOR PERFECTION HERE AND
THE EXPECTATION ARE INCREDIBLY
THE EXPECTATION ARE INCREDIBLY
ELEVATED ACROSS-THE-BOARD AND
ELEVATED ACROSS-THE-BOARD AND
ABOUT EARNINGS, ABOUT
ABOUT EARNINGS, ABOUT
THE ECONOMY, THEY ARE ELEVATED
THE ECONOMY, THEY ARE ELEVATED
ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND OF
ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND OF
COURSE THERE’S OPTIMISM ABOUT
COURSE THERE’S OPTIMISM ABOUT
THE A.I. TRADE REALLY CONTINUING
THE A.I. TRADE REALLY CONTINUING
THE MOMENTUM NEAR-TERM AND I
THE MOMENTUM NEAR-TERM AND I
HAVE A DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM
HAVE A DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM
AROUND ALL THREE OF
AROUND ALL THREE OF
THOSE THINGS.
THOSE THINGS.
CHARLES: IS YOUR SKEPTICISM
CHARLES: IS YOUR SKEPTICISM
LONG-TERM NOW?
LONG-TERM NOW?
DO YOU THINK THE A.I. TRADE IS
DO YOU THINK THE A.I. TRADE IS
OVER FOR INSTANCE OR I MEAN
OVER FOR INSTANCE OR I MEAN
SURE, YOU SEE THE BROADENING OUT
SURE, YOU SEE THE BROADENING OUT
OF THE LABOR MARKET.
OF THE LABOR MARKET.
WHAT ARE YOU SKEPTICAL THAT IT’S
WHAT ARE YOU SKEPTICAL THAT IT’S
WEAKENING AND THE FED SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AND THE FED SHOULD BE
CUTTING OR MORE THAN WE KNOW?
CUTTING OR MORE THAN WE KNOW?
>> THAT’S THE POINT IS
>> THAT’S THE POINT IS
THE LABOR MARKET IS CLEARLY
THE LABOR MARKET IS CLEARLY
WEAKENING AND WE DON’T
WEAKENING AND WE DON’T
GET THE OFFICIAL PAYROLLS DATA
GET THE OFFICIAL PAYROLLS DATA
BUT WE GOT THE ALTERNATIVE DATA
BUT WE GOT THE ALTERNATIVE DATA
SUGGESTING IT’S WEAKENING AND
SUGGESTING IT’S WEAKENING AND
YET EVERYBODY ASSUMES IT’S NOT
YET EVERYBODY ASSUMES IT’S NOT
GOING TO SPILL OVER TO ANYTHING
GOING TO SPILL OVER TO ANYTHING
ELSE THAT THE LABOR MARKET WILL
ELSE THAT THE LABOR MARKET WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A RESILIENT.
CONTINUE TO BE A RESILIENT.
THAT’S A QUESTION MARK FOR ME,
THAT’S A QUESTION MARK FOR ME,
AS FAR AS THE A.I. TRADE GOES,
AS FAR AS THE A.I. TRADE GOES,
YOU KNOW, CLEARLY, WE’RE
YOU KNOW, CLEARLY, WE’RE
BUILDING A WHOLE LOT OF CAPACITY
BUILDING A WHOLE LOT OF CAPACITY
BUT THE QUESTION IS FOR WHAT?
BUT THE QUESTION IS FOR WHAT?
WILL THE KILLER APPS ACTUALLY
WILL THE KILLER APPS ACTUALLY
SURFACE IS OPENA.I. THE KILLER
SURFACE IS OPENA.I. THE KILLER
APP BUT I THINK WE NEED
APP BUT I THINK WE NEED
SOMETHING ELSE SO THAT’S WHAT
SOMETHING ELSE SO THAT’S WHAT
I’M KIND OF SKEPTICAL ABOUT
I’M KIND OF SKEPTICAL ABOUT
NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THERE’S A LOT
NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THERE’S A LOT
OF CAPACITY, WHERE IS THE PAY
OF CAPACITY, WHERE IS THE PAY
OFF.
OFF.
CHARLES: IS THERE A CHANCE AND
CHARLES: IS THERE A CHANCE AND
I’VE BEEN ASKING THIS QUESTION,
I’VE BEEN ASKING THIS QUESTION,
WE ALL LIVED THROUGH THE JOBLESS
WE ALL LIVED THROUGH THE JOBLESS
RECOVERY KIND OF THING, THAT
RECOVERY KIND OF THING, THAT
WHEN THAT PHRASE WAS POPULAR.
WHEN THAT PHRASE WAS POPULAR.
COULD WE HAVE A PARADIGM SHIFT
COULD WE HAVE A PARADIGM SHIFT
IN OUR ECONOMY WHERE A.I. DOES
IN OUR ECONOMY WHERE A.I. DOES
JUST ENOUGH THAT WE ACTUALLY DO
JUST ENOUGH THAT WE ACTUALLY DO
HAVE LESS JOBS, FEWER JOBS, BUT
HAVE LESS JOBS, FEWER JOBS, BUT
GREATER PROSPERITY?
GREATER PROSPERITY?
CAN THAT BE, CAN THAT EXIST?
CAN THAT BE, CAN THAT EXIST?
>> THAT’S IN A WAY WHERE
>> THAT’S IN A WAY WHERE
THE MARKET HAS BEEN SETTING UP
THE MARKET HAS BEEN SETTING UP
FOR AND BEEN EXPERIENCING,
FOR AND BEEN EXPERIENCING,
BECAUSE THE LABOR MARKET HAS
BECAUSE THE LABOR MARKET HAS
BEEN WEAKENING FOR THREE MONTHS
BEEN WEAKENING FOR THREE MONTHS
AND YET THE MARKET, THE S&P HAS
AND YET THE MARKET, THE S&P HAS
BEEN ROARING, SO I DO THINK,
BEEN ROARING, SO I DO THINK,
CHARLES, THAT FOR EXAMPLE,
CHARLES, THAT FOR EXAMPLE,
PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT INFLATION,
PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT INFLATION,
BUT IF YOU HAVE THE COMBINATION
BUT IF YOU HAVE THE COMBINATION
OF A.I., ON TOP OF EVERYTHING
OF A.I., ON TOP OF EVERYTHING
ELSE GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY, WE
ELSE GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY, WE
MIGHT ACTUALLY PUT A CAP ON
MIGHT ACTUALLY PUT A CAP ON
INFLATION, AND LOOK, NEAR-TERM,
INFLATION, AND LOOK, NEAR-TERM,
I’M SKEPTICAL ABOUT
I’M SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE MOMENTUM.
THE MOMENTUM.
LONGER TERM IT IS CLEARLY A
LONGER TERM IT IS CLEARLY A
SHORT CUT TO PRODUCTIVITY AND I
SHORT CUT TO PRODUCTIVITY AND I
THINK THE OPPORTUNITY IS IMMENSE
THINK THE OPPORTUNITY IS IMMENSE
ACROSS SECTORS, SO YES, I DO
ACROSS SECTORS, SO YES, I DO
THINK THAT IT COULD BE A MORE
THINK THAT IT COULD BE A MORE
TEMPERED LABOR MARKET AND YET
TEMPERED LABOR MARKET AND YET
PRODUCTIVITY THAT PICKS UP.
PRODUCTIVITY THAT PICKS UP.
CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT ONE
CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT ONE
THING YOU THINK COULD BE A
THING YOU THINK COULD BE A
TAILWIND, RATE CUTS.
TAILWIND, RATE CUTS.
YOU SAY HELPS IN A LOT OF WAYS
YOU SAY HELPS IN A LOT OF WAYS
RIGHT, IMPROVES CASH FLOW, MAYBE
RIGHT, IMPROVES CASH FLOW, MAYBE
OFFSET TARIFFS, IMPROVE REAL
OFFSET TARIFFS, IMPROVE REAL
ESTATE, YOU KNOW, WE SEE MAYBE
ESTATE, YOU KNOW, WE SEE MAYBE
MORTGAGES COMING DOWN, AND
MORTGAGES COMING DOWN, AND
SHORT-TERM EQUITY VALUATIONS.
SHORT-TERM EQUITY VALUATIONS.
HOW MANY CUTS DO YOU SEE COMING?
HOW MANY CUTS DO YOU SEE COMING?
>> I SEE ANOTHER TWO, AND I
>> I SEE ANOTHER TWO, AND I
WILL SAY, NEAR-TERM, YOU KNOW,
WILL SAY, NEAR-TERM, YOU KNOW,
CAUTIOUS.
CAUTIOUS.
LONGER TERM IN 2026 OPTIMISTIC
LONGER TERM IN 2026 OPTIMISTIC
BUT THAT IS CONTINGENT ON
BUT THAT IS CONTINGENT ON
THE TWO MORE RATE CUTS BECAUSE
THE TWO MORE RATE CUTS BECAUSE
IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS
IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS
ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH
ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH
FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE
FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE
CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF
CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF
THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED
THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED
AN OFFSET.
AN OFFSET.
IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL
IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL
ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE,
ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE,
OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR
OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR
VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT
VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT
WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY,
AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY,
COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET
COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET
BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO
BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO
WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN
WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN
THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS
THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS
SOMEWHERE ELSE?
SOMEWHERE ELSE?
THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING
THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING
MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF
MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF
WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD
WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD
CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF
CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF
THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM,
THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM,
FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT
FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT
WOULD HELP.
WOULD HELP.
CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE
CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE
DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT,
DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT,
RIGHT?
RIGHT?
WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE
WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE
AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME
AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME
AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO
AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO
FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO
FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO
BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE
BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE
GET THE DATA.
GET THE DATA.
>> YEAH, WELL IF WE
>> YEAH, WELL IF WE
GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK.
GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK.
WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS
WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS
AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN
AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN
ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN
ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN
DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S
DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY
WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME
WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME
THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO
THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO
THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES
THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES
BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P
BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P
NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE
NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE
LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY
LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND
NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND
SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT
SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT
BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS
BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS
WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY.
WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY.
CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT
CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT
SECTORS.
SECTORS.
YOU ARE STILL SEEING
YOU ARE STILL SEEING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND
THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY
THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY
TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS,
TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS,
HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA
HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA
CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS.
CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS.
LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE
LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE
YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE
YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE
BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN
BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN
THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A
THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A
WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO
WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO
YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT?
YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT?
>> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT
>> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT
AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S
AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S
REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF
REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF
THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING.
THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT
IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT
THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO
THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO
DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING
DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING
AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE
AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE
SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT
SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT
LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS
LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS
AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE
AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE
A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL
A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL
ACTIVITIES.
ACTIVITIES.
CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE
CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE
MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS.
MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS.
THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS
THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS
PRETTY CLEAR.
PRETTY CLEAR.
CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER
CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER
OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS
OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS
GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS.
GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS.
IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD
IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD
BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE
BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE
HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE
HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE
CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS,
CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS,
SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP.
SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP.
WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL
WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL
PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME
PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME
TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE
TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE
CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO
CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO
THIS FOR A LONG TIME.
THIS FOR A LONG TIME.
>> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING
>> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING
ACCESS TO THAT.
ACCESS TO THAT.
NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY
NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY
CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF
CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF
THOSE THINGS.
THOSE THINGS.
I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A
I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A
LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE
LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE
MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A
MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A
STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED
STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED
MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET
MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET
VOLATILITY AND ONE OF
VOLATILITY AND ONE OF
THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A
THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A
GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS
GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS
BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU
BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU
THAT DIVERSIFICATION.
THAT DIVERSIFICATION.
FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS
FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS
ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND
ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND
PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO
PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO
WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE
WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE
GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH
GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH
HEADLINE.
HEADLINE.
CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW
CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW
WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF
WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF
YOU CAN.
YOU CAN.
I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT.
I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT.
THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO
THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO
RIGHT PARTLY?
RIGHT PARTLY?
THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE
THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE
ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY
ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY
EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE
EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE
CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS
CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS
INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY
INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY
ACCESSIBLE.
ACCESSIBLE.
CHARLES: GREAT STUFF.
CHARLES: GREAT STUFF.
I’M SO LUCKY TO HAVE YOU ON A