[English]
THE U.S. IS UP 35%.
MP UP 22%, U.S. WEARERS OF 22
MP UP 22%, U.S. WEARERS OF 22
AND A QUARTER PERCENT.
AND A QUARTER PERCENT.
HOWEVER, LAST NIGHT THE
HOWEVER, LAST NIGHT THE
PRESIDENT MADE CONCILIATORY
PRESIDENT MADE CONCILIATORY
COMMENTS ABOUT CHINESE LEADER XI
COMMENTS ABOUT CHINESE LEADER XI
JINPING AND THE RESURRECTION OF
JINPING AND THE RESURRECTION OF
THE TRADE WAR SAYING IT WILL ALL
THE TRADE WAR SAYING IT WILL ALL
BE FINE, THE BULLS LIKE ALL OF
BE FINE, THE BULLS LIKE ALL OF
IT AND THINK IT IS FINE, LET’S
IT AND THINK IT IS FINE, LET’S
GET TO THE FLOOR SHOW CITIGROUP
GET TO THE FLOOR SHOW CITIGROUP
GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST.
GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST.
ARE YOU FINE WITH ALL OF THIS?
ARE YOU FINE WITH ALL OF THIS?
>> THERE IS DEFINITELY A LOT OF
>> THERE IS DEFINITELY A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE IN THE
UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE IN THE
REALITY IS THAT CHINA IS THE
REALITY IS THAT CHINA IS THE
WORLD’S SECOND-LARGEST NATIONAL
WORLD’S SECOND-LARGEST NATIONAL
ECONOMY IN THE U.S. IS DEPENDENT
ECONOMY IN THE U.S. IS DEPENDENT
ON CHINA FOR THE KEY IMPORTS
ON CHINA FOR THE KEY IMPORTS
INCLUDING RARE-EARTH MINERALS.
INCLUDING RARE-EARTH MINERALS.
WHEN WE GET TO THIS PLACE WHERE
WHEN WE GET TO THIS PLACE WHERE
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRADE WAR
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRADE WAR
BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES IS
BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES IS
GOING TO ESCALATE THAT IS
GOING TO ESCALATE THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT CAPTURES THE
SOMETHING THAT CAPTURES THE
MARKETS ATTENTION.
MARKETS ATTENTION.
I THINK WE ARE REMINDED TODAY
I THINK WE ARE REMINDED TODAY
THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS AWARE OF
THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS AWARE OF
THAT AND HAS SIGNALED IN THE
THAT AND HAS SIGNALED IN THE
PAST THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE
PAST THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM THE MARKET IS
LIKELY FROM THE MARKET IS
LEANING AND THE DIRECTION STILL
LEANING AND THE DIRECTION STILL
UNCOMFORTABLE BUT MEDIATED A
UNCOMFORTABLE BUT MEDIATED A
HOPEFUL DIRECTION THAT ON FRIDAY
HOPEFUL DIRECTION THAT ON FRIDAY
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY.
LIZ: WE SHOW THE CHINESE STOCKS
LIZ: WE SHOW THE CHINESE STOCKS
THAT ARE RURAL AND HIGHER EXAM
THAT ARE RURAL AND HIGHER EXAM
WITH THE TRADE RELATED STOCKS,
WITH THE TRADE RELATED STOCKS,
ANYTHING TECHNOLOGY.
ANYTHING TECHNOLOGY.
WHEN YOU LOOK LISTEN TO WHAT
WHEN YOU LOOK LISTEN TO WHAT
CHINA SAID AFTER WHAT PRESIDENT
CHINA SAID AFTER WHAT PRESIDENT
TRUMP THREATENED THE ONE 100%
TRUMP THREATENED THE ONE 100%
TARIFFS OVER THE WEEKEND ON ALL
TARIFFS OVER THE WEEKEND ON ALL
THINGS CHINESE COMING INTO THE
THINGS CHINESE COMING INTO THE
U.S. CHINA BASICALLY SAID BRING
U.S. CHINA BASICALLY SAID BRING
IT ON WE DON’T NEED YOUR
IT ON WE DON’T NEED YOUR
SOYBEANS WE ARE FULLY STOCKED
SOYBEANS WE ARE FULLY STOCKED
WITH SOYBEANS FROM OTHER
WITH SOYBEANS FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES, WE CHANGED OUR SUPPLY
COUNTRIES, WE CHANGED OUR SUPPLY
CHANGE JUST LIKE THE U.S. HAS
CHANGE JUST LIKE THE U.S. HAS
CERTAINLY CHANGED ITS SUPPLY
CERTAINLY CHANGED ITS SUPPLY
CHAINS, UCD THREATS TO THE
CHAINS, UCD THREATS TO THE
ECONOMY AND THE MARKETS AHEAD ON
ECONOMY AND THE MARKETS AHEAD ON
THIS?
THIS?
>> WHAT IS CERTAINLY TRUE, CHINA
>> WHAT IS CERTAINLY TRUE, CHINA
IS REWIRING BOTH THE EXPORTS AND
IS REWIRING BOTH THE EXPORTS AND
IMPORTS TO REDUCE THE DEPENDENCE
IMPORTS TO REDUCE THE DEPENDENCE
ON THE UNITED STATES.
ON THE UNITED STATES.
I THINK IN PARALLEL, AS YOU KNOW
I THINK IN PARALLEL, AS YOU KNOW
THE UNITED STATES IS DOING THE
THE UNITED STATES IS DOING THE
SAME THING.
SAME THING.
I THINK IF I PROJECT THIS THING
I THINK IF I PROJECT THIS THING
OUT OVER A 5 - TENURE HORIZON
OUT OVER A 5 - TENURE HORIZON
CAN I IMAGINE A WORLD WHERE THE
CAN I IMAGINE A WORLD WHERE THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA ARE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA ARE
FULLY DECOUPLED.
FULLY DECOUPLED.
I THINK THAT IS PROBABLY A
I THINK THAT IS PROBABLY A
DIRECTION THAT WERE MOVING INTO.
DIRECTION THAT WERE MOVING INTO.
FOR NOW THEY STILL NEED US AND
FOR NOW THEY STILL NEED US AND
WE STILL NEED THEM.
WE STILL NEED THEM.
LIZ: USING CONFIT ABOUT THE U.S.
LIZ: USING CONFIT ABOUT THE U.S.
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY.
HOWEVER, WERE WAITING ON DATA
HOWEVER, WERE WAITING ON DATA
AND SOME OF THAT GOVERNMENT
AND SOME OF THAT GOVERNMENT
DRIVEN SO WERE NOT GETTING GET
DRIVEN SO WERE NOT GETTING GET
IT BECAUSE WERE IN DAY 13 OF THE
IT BECAUSE WERE IN DAY 13 OF THE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND WE CAN
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND WE CAN
LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
AND SEE WHAT WE WILL BE GETTING
AND SEE WHAT WE WILL BE GETTING
THIS MONTH, THAT WOULD BE
THIS MONTH, THAT WOULD BE
SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES, WE WILL
SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES, WE WILL
NOT BE GETTING FOR A WEEK OR TWO
NOT BE GETTING FOR A WEEK OR TWO
BECAUSE APPARENTLY THE
BECAUSE APPARENTLY THE
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING WE HAVE TO
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING WE HAVE TO
GET THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
GET THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
THAT’S INFLATION NUMBER SO MAYBE
THAT’S INFLATION NUMBER SO MAYBE
THAT WILL, THE 24th, NO
THAT WILL, THE 24th, NO
JOBLESS CLAIMS ON THURSDAY
JOBLESS CLAIMS ON THURSDAY
CERTAINLY, THERE ARE SOME THINGS
CERTAINLY, THERE ARE SOME THINGS
THAT WE WILL GET BECAUSE IT DONE
THAT WE WILL GET BECAUSE IT DONE
INDEPENDENTLY WERE BRINGING THE
INDEPENDENTLY WERE BRINGING THE
EMPIRE INDEX, NEW YORK FEDERAL
EMPIRE INDEX, NEW YORK FEDERAL
RESERVE OF REGIONAL AND HOUSING
RESERVE OF REGIONAL AND HOUSING
MARKET STUFF, ET CETERA, HOW ARE
MARKET STUFF, ET CETERA, HOW ARE
YOU AT CITY WITH YOUR SUPPLY
YOU AT CITY WITH YOUR SUPPLY
CHAIN OF DATA NOW THAT YOU CAN’T
CHAIN OF DATA NOW THAT YOU CAN’T
GET IT FROM THE GOVERNMENT.
GET IT FROM THE GOVERNMENT.
>> WE CRITICALLY MISS THE
>> WE CRITICALLY MISS THE
GOVERNMENT DATA AND OUR CAPACITY
GOVERNMENT DATA AND OUR CAPACITY
TO BE ABLE TO EVALUATE AND
TO BE ABLE TO EVALUATE AND
CANDIDLY THE MARKETS CAPACITY TO
CANDIDLY THE MARKETS CAPACITY TO
EVALUATE WHERE THE ECONOMY IS
EVALUATE WHERE THE ECONOMY IS
AND REDUCED ONE POINT WHICH IS
AND REDUCED ONE POINT WHICH IS
VERY IMPORTANT IT INCREASES THE
VERY IMPORTANT IT INCREASES THE
EMPHASIS ON THE THIRD-QUARTER
EMPHASIS ON THE THIRD-QUARTER
EARNINGS REPORTS THAT ARE
EARNINGS REPORTS THAT ARE
STARTING THIS WEEK.
STARTING THIS WEEK.
LIZ: TOMORROW.
LIZ: TOMORROW.
I’M GET A BE LISTENING WHAT DO
I’M GET A BE LISTENING WHAT DO
RETAILERS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT
RETAILERS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT
MARGIN PRESSURES ABOUT PASTOR OF
MARGIN PRESSURES ABOUT PASTOR OF
TARIFFS, WHAT ARE THE A.I. FIRMS
TARIFFS, WHAT ARE THE A.I. FIRMS
TELLING US ABOUT ONGOING A.I.
TELLING US ABOUT ONGOING A.I.
INVESTMENT.
INVESTMENT.
>> THE BOND MARKET IS CLOSE AS
>> THE BOND MARKET IS CLOSE AS
IT HIT A THREE WEEK LOW AT 4.138
IT HIT A THREE WEEK LOW AT 4.138
AT THE CLOSE ON FRIDAY, IT’S A
AT THE CLOSE ON FRIDAY, IT’S A
LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN THAT 4.08
LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN THAT 4.08
TO EARNINGS I’M SURE YOU’LL BE
TO EARNINGS I’M SURE YOU’LL BE
WATCHING BECAUSE CITIGROUP IS
WATCHING BECAUSE CITIGROUP IS
REPORTING WITH A BUNCH OF THE
REPORTING WITH A BUNCH OF THE
BIG BANKS YOU HAVE J.P. MORGAN,
BIG BANKS YOU HAVE J.P. MORGAN,
WELLS FARGO, GOLDMAN SACHS,
WELLS FARGO, GOLDMAN SACHS,
BLACKROCK, BANK OF AMERICA ON
BLACKROCK, BANK OF AMERICA ON
WEDNESDAY, MORGAN STANLEY, PNC,
WEDNESDAY, MORGAN STANLEY, PNC,
BIG NAMES AND FINANCIALS, HOW DO
BIG NAMES AND FINANCIALS, HOW DO
THEY LOOK.
THEY LOOK.
>> I GOTTA BE CAREFUL NOT TO, ON
>> I GOTTA BE CAREFUL NOT TO, ON
SPECIFIC NAMES AND BROADLY THE
SPECIFIC NAMES AND BROADLY THE
FINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE MARKET
FINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE MARKET
ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK SOLID.
ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK SOLID.
I THINK IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
I THINK IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
A STRONG CONSUMER THE FINANCIAL
A STRONG CONSUMER THE FINANCIAL
SECTOR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
SECTOR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
LOOK STRONG.
LOOK STRONG.
>> THE EPS EXPECTATION FOR THE
>> THE EPS EXPECTATION FOR THE
NAMES IN THE S&P ARE UP 12.6%
NAMES IN THE S&P ARE UP 12.6%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR OVERALL REVENUE
YEAR-OVER-YEAR OVERALL REVENUE
IS UP 3.4%, THE S&P IS EXPECTED
IS UP 3.4%, THE S&P IS EXPECTED
ALL 500 COMPANIES UP 8%
ALL 500 COMPANIES UP 8%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR I WILL TAKE IT.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR I WILL TAKE IT.
>> THIS IS THE KIWI DEBATE OUR
>> THIS IS THE KIWI DEBATE OUR
STOCKS OVERVALUED AT THE END OF
STOCKS OVERVALUED AT THE END OF
THE DAY MAYBE BUT YOU GOTTA LIKE
THE DAY MAYBE BUT YOU GOTTA LIKE
EARNINGS TRAJECTORY.
EARNINGS TRAJECTORY.
THESE EVALUATIONS FOR THE STRONG
THESE EVALUATIONS FOR THE STRONG
EARNINGS.
EARNINGS.
YOU ALSO HAVE J.P. MORGAN
YOU ALSO HAVE J.P. MORGAN
ANNOUNCING IT WILL SPEND
ANNOUNCING IT WILL SPEND
$1.5 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT TEN
$1.5 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT TEN
YEARS ON ALL THINGS RELATED TO
YEARS ON ALL THINGS RELATED TO
NATIONAL SECURITY US-BASED
NATIONAL SECURITY US-BASED
ENERGY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
ENERGY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
ASIDE FROM ALL OF THAT SOME OF
ASIDE FROM ALL OF THAT SOME OF
THE TECHNOLOGICAL NAMES THAT ARE
THE TECHNOLOGICAL NAMES THAT ARE
OUTSIDE OF A.I.
OUTSIDE OF A.I.
>> ONE OF THE HUGE TAKEAWAYS
>> ONE OF THE HUGE TAKEAWAYS
FROM THE PANDEMIC IS ECONOMIC
FROM THE PANDEMIC IS ECONOMIC
POLICYMAKERS IN THE CORPORATE
POLICYMAKERS IN THE CORPORATE
SECTOR IT NEEDS TO FOCUS MORE ON
SECTOR IT NEEDS TO FOCUS MORE ON
ESSENTIAL SECURITY WHICH IS
ESSENTIAL SECURITY WHICH IS
NATIONAL SECURITY BUT EVEN
NATIONAL SECURITY BUT EVEN
BROADER.
BROADER.
WHAT WE NEED TO BE A MORE
WHAT WE NEED TO BE A MORE
RESILIENT ECONOMY DURING TIMES
RESILIENT ECONOMY DURING TIMES
OF STRESS.
OF STRESS.
THAT’S GOOD TO BE A RICH FIELD
THAT’S GOOD TO BE A RICH FIELD
FOR INVESTMENT DURING THE COMING
FOR INVESTMENT DURING THE COMING
DECADE.
DECADE.
LIZ: GOLD IS SURGING TO A RECORD
LIZ: GOLD IS SURGING TO A RECORD
HIGH IS THAT A WEIRD SIGNAL IN
HIGH IS THAT A WEIRD SIGNAL IN
SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM.
SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM.
>> IT MY BE A CAUTIONARY NOTE
>> IT MY BE A CAUTIONARY NOTE
WINDOWS GOLD RISE, RISES ON TWO
WINDOWS GOLD RISE, RISES ON TWO
KINDS OF CIRCUMSTANCES.
KINDS OF CIRCUMSTANCES.
ONE WHEN THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT
ONE WHEN THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT
INFLATION WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO
INFLATION WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE FRONT AND CENTER BUT SOME
BE FRONT AND CENTER BUT SOME
SCENARIOS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY
SCENARIOS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY
WHERE INFLATION COULD RISE THE
WHERE INFLATION COULD RISE THE
SECOND DURING PERIODS OF
SECOND DURING PERIODS OF
INSURGENCY THAT IS THE OTHER
INSURGENCY THAT IS THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS THERE’S STILL A LOT
SIDE OF THIS THERE’S STILL A LOT
OF?
OF?
ABOUT WHERE WERE HEADED AND WHAT
ABOUT WHERE WERE HEADED AND WHAT
POLICY IS GET A LOOK LIKE AND
POLICY IS GET A LOOK LIKE AND
WHETHER THE ECONOMY PROVES
WHETHER THE ECONOMY PROVES
DURABLE, I’M OPTIMISTIC BUT I
DURABLE, I’M OPTIMISTIC BUT I
THINK THERE IS AN ONGOING DEBATE
THINK THERE IS AN ONGOING DEBATE
DEBATE.
DEBATE.
WE HAVE PETER SHIFT THE BIG GOLD
WE HAVE PETER SHIFT THE BIG GOLD
BUG, YOU KNOW HIM HE HAS A