– 英語/日本語バイリンガル歌詞

歌詞と翻訳

[日本語]

良くないわけがないでしょう。 - それは奇跡的です。

それは奇跡的です。 - チャールズ：では、次に

チャールズ：では、次に - ゲストは市場のナビゲートについて

ゲストは市場のナビゲートについて - この市場を、彼女は

この市場を、彼女は - 長年ナビゲートしてきました。

長年ナビゲートしてきました。 - そして、彼女は建設的でありながら

そして、彼女は建設的でありながら - 継続的な近傍の上昇の設定は

継続的な近傍の上昇の設定は - これまで以上に困難だと

これまで以上に困難だと - 言っています。では、パートナーズ・グループの

言っています。では、パートナーズ・グループの - 最高投資責任者を

最高投資責任者を - 招きましょう、プライベート・ウェルスの

招きましょう、プライベート・ウェルスの - ストラテジスト、アナスタシア・アマローサを。

ストラテジスト、アナスタシア・アマローサを。 - そして、ヘッドラインから始めましょう。

そして、ヘッドラインから始めましょう。 - では、中国は昨日レアアースに注目し

では、中国は昨日レアアースに注目し - 今日はNVIDIAやQUALCOMMなどの

今日はNVIDIAやQUALCOMMなどの - チップ企業に注目しています。

チップ企業に注目しています。 - トランプ大統領は「最大限の

トランプ大統領は「最大限の - 関税を課すかもしれない」と述べています。

関税を課すかもしれない」と述べています。 - これにより市場が下落し、反発しています。

これにより市場が下落し、反発しています。 - >> 「かもしれない」という言葉は

>> 「かもしれない」という言葉は - 必ずしも合意が得られないことを意味していませんが

必ずしも合意が得られないことを意味していませんが - 市場はどの見出しにも反応しています。

市場はどの見出しにも反応しています。 - 市場は完璧を期して設定されていましたが

市場は完璧を期して設定されていましたが - 期待は全体的に非常に高まっています。

期待は全体的に非常に高まっています。 - 労働市場についても、もちろんAI取引の

労働市場についても、もちろんAI取引の - 勢いが継続することへの楽観的な見方があります。

勢いが継続することへの楽観的な見方があります。 - 私はこれらのことすべてに

私はこれらのことすべてに - ある程度の懐疑的な見方をしています。

ある程度の懐疑的な見方をしています。 - チャールズ：その懐疑的な見方は

チャールズ：その懐疑的な見方は - 今は長期的なものですか？

今は長期的なものですか？ - 例えば、AI取引は終わったと思いますか？

例えば、AI取引は終わったと思いますか？ - 労働市場の拡大が見られますが

労働市場の拡大が見られますが - それは弱体化していると懐疑的ですか？

それは弱体化していると懐疑的ですか？ - 連邦準備制度は利下げをすべきだと

連邦準備制度は利下げをすべきだと - 思っていますか？

思っていますか？ - >> 労働市場は明らかに弱体化していますが

>> 労働市場は明らかに弱体化していますが - 公式の雇用統計は出ておらず

公式の雇用統計は出ておらず - 代替データが弱体化を示唆しています。

代替データが弱体化を示唆しています。 - しかし、誰もが労働市場が回復すると

しかし、誰もが労働市場が回復すると - 想定しています。私にとっては疑問符です。

想定しています。私にとっては疑問符です。 - AI取引に関しては、明らかに

AI取引に関しては、明らかに - 多くの能力を構築していますが

多くの能力を構築していますが - それは何のためなのでしょうか？

それは何のためなのでしょうか？ - キラーアプリが実際に表面化するかどうかは

キラーアプリが実際に表面化するかどうかは - 疑問です。

疑問です。 - チャールズ：その懐疑的な見方は

チャールズ：その懐疑的な見方は - 今は長期的なものですか？

今は長期的なものですか？ - 例えば、AI取引は終わったと思いますか？

例えば、AI取引は終わったと思いますか？ - 労働市場の拡大が見られますが

労働市場の拡大が見られますが - それは弱体化していると懐疑的ですか？

それは弱体化していると懐疑的ですか？ - 連邦準備制度は利下げをすべきだと

連邦準備制度は利下げをすべきだと - 思っていますか？

思っていますか？ - >> 労働市場は明らかに弱体化していますが

>> 労働市場は明らかに弱体化していますが - 公式の雇用統計は出ておらず

公式の雇用統計は出ておらず - 代替データが弱体化を示唆しています。

代替データが弱体化を示唆しています。 - しかし、誰もが労働市場が回復すると

しかし、誰もが労働市場が回復すると - 想定しています。私にとっては疑問符です。

想定しています。私にとっては疑問符です。 - AI取引に関しては、明らかに

AI取引に関しては、明らかに - 多くの能力を構築していますが

多くの能力を構築していますが - それは何のためなのでしょうか？

それは何のためなのでしょうか？ - キラーアプリが実際に表面化するかどうかは

キラーアプリが実際に表面化するかどうかは - 疑問です。

疑問です。 - チャールズ：経済において、AIが

チャールズ：経済において、AIが - 十分に機能し、雇用が減少しても

十分に機能し、雇用が減少しても - より大きな繁栄がもたらされるという

より大きな繁栄がもたらされるという - パラダイムシフトが起こり得ますか？

パラダイムシフトが起こり得ますか？ - >> 市場はそうなるように設定されていますが

>> 市場はそうなるように設定されていますが - 労働市場は3ヶ月間弱体化しています。

労働市場は3ヶ月間弱体化しています。 - しかし、市場、S&Pは上昇しています。

しかし、市場、S&Pは上昇しています。 - 例えば、人々はインフレを心配していますが

例えば、人々はインフレを心配していますが - AIが経済の他のすべてと組み合わされば

AIが経済の他のすべてと組み合わされば - インフレを抑えることができます。

インフレを抑えることができます。 - 私は短期的な勢いには懐疑的ですが

私は短期的な勢いには懐疑的ですが - 長期的には生産性への近道であり

長期的には生産性への近道であり - 機会は膨大です。

機会は膨大です。 - チャールズ：利下げは多くの面で役立ちますね。

チャールズ：利下げは多くの面で役立ちますね。 - >> そうですね、キャッシュフローを改善し、

>> そうですね、キャッシュフローを改善し、 - 関税を相殺することができます。

関税を相殺することができます。 - 不動産や住宅ローンも改善されるでしょう。

不動産や住宅ローンも改善されるでしょう。 - 短期的な株式評価も改善されます。

短期的な株式評価も改善されます。 - どのくらいの利下げが見込まれますか？

どのくらいの利下げが見込まれますか？ - >> さらに2回と見ています。

>> さらに2回と見ています。 - 短期的には慎重ですが、2026年には楽観的です。

短期的には慎重ですが、2026年には楽観的です。 - しかし、それはさらに2回の利下げに

しかし、それはさらに2回の利下げに - 依存しています。

依存しています。 - これにより、キャッシュフローが改善され、

これにより、キャッシュフローが改善され、 - 労働市場も改善される可能性があります。

労働市場も改善される可能性があります。 - チャールズ：雇用統計が出なかった場合、

チャールズ：雇用統計が出なかった場合、 - どうなりますか？

どうなりますか？ - 連邦準備制度は次の利下げを50ベーシスポイントに

連邦準備制度は次の利下げを50ベーシスポイントに - すべきだと思いますか？

すべきだと思いますか？ - >> データが出れば、25ベーシスポイントか

>> データが出れば、25ベーシスポイントか - 12月にさらに25ベーシスポイントか、

12月にさらに25ベーシスポイントか、 - 50ベーシスポイントか、どちらでも受け入れます。

50ベーシスポイントか、どちらでも受け入れます。 - チャールズ：セクターについて話しましょう。

チャールズ：セクターについて話しましょう。 - 市場にはまだ機会がありますね。

市場にはまだ機会がありますね。 - 金融、ヘルスケア、産業、データセンター、

金融、ヘルスケア、産業、データセンター、 - 電力発電など。

電力発電など。 - 産業セクターについて話しましょう。

産業セクターについて話しましょう。 - 住宅建設業者が産業セクターを押し下げていますが

住宅建設業者が産業セクターを押し下げていますが - 選択的になる必要がありますね。

選択的になる必要がありますね。 - >> 産業セクターは景気敏感セクターですが

>> 産業セクターは景気敏感セクターですが - 同時に、長期的なトレンドに支えられています。

THE MOMENTUM. LONGER TERM IT IS CLEARLY A

同時に、長期的なトレンドに支えられています。 - オンショアリングの波が起こると思います。

オンショアリングの波が起こると思います。 - プライベート市場とパブリック市場について

プライベート市場とパブリック市場について - 話しましょう。

話しましょう。 - プライベート市場の方が評価が安く、

プライベート市場の方が評価が安く、 - 機会が多く、収益成長が速く、利益率が良いです。

機会が多く、収益成長が速く、利益率が良いです。 - チャールズ：プライベートクレジットについて

チャールズ：プライベートクレジットについて - 心配することはありますか？

心配することはありますか？ - >> 特に心配することはありません。

>> 特に心配することはありません。 - 利下げはプライベート市場を支援すると思います。

利下げはプライベート市場を支援すると思います。 - しかし、パブリック市場の変動性については

しかし、パブリック市場の変動性については - 中期的に心配しています。

中期的に心配しています。 - プライベート市場は分散投資を可能にします。

プライベート市場は分散投資を可能にします。 - 例えば、インフラストラクチャは

例えば、インフラストラクチャは - グローバル60/40ポートフォリオの0.24%を占めます。

グローバル60/40ポートフォリオの0.24%を占めます。 - チャールズ：富裕層の動きに注目しましょう。

チャールズ：富裕層の動きに注目しましょう。 - プライベート市場へのアクセスを

プライベート市場へのアクセスを - 増やそうとしていますね。

増やそうとしていますね。 - 16年間、プライベートクライアントに

16年間、プライベートクライアントに - プライベートエクイティのソリューションを提供してきました。

プライベートエクイティのソリューションを提供してきました。 - チャールズ：素晴らしいですね。

チャールズ：素晴らしいですね。 - 私はあなたをゲストに迎えられて幸運です。

私はあなたをゲストに迎えられて幸運です。

THE TWO MORE RATE CUTS BECAUSE IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS

IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH

ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE

FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF

CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED

THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED AN OFFSET.

AN OFFSET. IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL

IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE,

ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE, OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR

OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT

VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE

WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY,

AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET

COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO

BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN

WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS

THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS SOMEWHERE ELSE?

SOMEWHERE ELSE? THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING

THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF

MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD

WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF

CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM,

THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM, FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT

FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT WOULD HELP.

WOULD HELP. CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE

CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT,

DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT, RIGHT?

RIGHT? WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE

WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME

AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO

AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO

FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE

BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE GET THE DATA.

GET THE DATA. >> YEAH, WELL IF WE

>> YEAH, WELL IF WE GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK.

GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK. WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS

WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN

AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN

ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S

DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY

CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME

WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO

THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES

THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P

BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE

NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY

LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND

NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT

SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS

BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY.

WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY. CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT

CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT SECTORS.

SECTORS. YOU ARE STILL SEEING

YOU ARE STILL SEEING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY

THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS,

TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA

HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS.

CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS. LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE

LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE

YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN

BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A

THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO

WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT?

YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT? >> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT

>> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S

AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF

REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING.

THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING. IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT

IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO

THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING

DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE

AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT

SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS

LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE

AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL

A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES.

ACTIVITIES. CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE

CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS.

MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS. THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS

THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS PRETTY CLEAR.

PRETTY CLEAR. CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER

CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS

OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS.

GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS. IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD

IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE

BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE

HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS,

CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS, SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP.

SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP. WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL

WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME

PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE

TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO

CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

THIS FOR A LONG TIME. >> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING

>> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING ACCESS TO THAT.

ACCESS TO THAT. NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY

NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF

CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF THOSE THINGS.

THOSE THINGS. I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A

I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE

LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A

MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED

STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET

MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET VOLATILITY AND ONE OF

VOLATILITY AND ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A

THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS

GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU

BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU THAT DIVERSIFICATION.

THAT DIVERSIFICATION. FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS

FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND

ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO

PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE

WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH

GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH HEADLINE.

HEADLINE. CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW

CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF

WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF YOU CAN.

YOU CAN. I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT.

I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT. THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO

THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO RIGHT PARTLY?

RIGHT PARTLY? THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE

THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY

ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE

EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS

CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY

INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY ACCESSIBLE.

ACCESSIBLE. CHARLES: GREAT STUFF.

CHARLES: GREAT STUFF. I’M SO LUCKY TO HAVE YOU ON A

[英語]

>> IS IT NOT GOOD? >> IT IS MIRACULOUS.

>> IT IS MIRACULOUS. CHARLES: ALL RIGHT SO MY NEXT

CHARLES: ALL RIGHT SO MY NEXT GUEST SAYS NAVIGATING

GUEST SAYS NAVIGATING THIS MARKET, SHE’S BEEN

THIS MARKET, SHE’S BEEN NAVIGATING IT FOR A LONG TIME,

NAVIGATING IT FOR A LONG TIME, AND WHILE SHE REMAINS

AND WHILE SHE REMAINS CONSTRUCTIVE SHE DOES SAY THAT

CONSTRUCTIVE SHE DOES SAY THAT THE SET-UP FOR CONTINUED NEAR

THE SET-UP FOR CONTINUED NEAR SIDE UPSIDE IS MUCH MORE

SIDE UPSIDE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN ITS BEEN SO LET’S

DIFFICULT THAN ITS BEEN SO LET’S BRING IN PARTNERS GROUP MANAGING

BRING IN PARTNERS GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR CHIEF INVESTMENT

DIRECTOR CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST FOR PRIVATE WEALTH,

STRATEGIST FOR PRIVATE WEALTH, ANASTASIA AMAROSA, AND LET’S

ANASTASIA AMAROSA, AND LET’S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES

GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES SO WE STARTED TO OFF AND CHINA

SO WE STARTED TO OFF AND CHINA GOING AFTER RARE EARTH YESTERDAY

GOING AFTER RARE EARTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY THEY ARE GOING AFTER

AND TODAY THEY ARE GOING AFTER CHIPS COMPANIES, NVIDIA,

CHIPS COMPANIES, NVIDIA, QUALCOMM.

QUALCOMM. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS OKAY YOU

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS OKAY YOU KNOW WHAT?

KNOW WHAT? WE MAY HAVE TO GO MAXIMUM

WE MAY HAVE TO GO MAXIMUM TARIFFS AND SETS UP THIS FREE

TARIFFS AND SETS UP THIS FREE FALL IN THE MARKET, A PULLBACK

FALL IN THE MARKET, A PULLBACK IN THE MARKET.

IN THE MARKET. >> WELL THE OPERATIVE WORD

>> WELL THE OPERATIVE WORD "MAY" DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN

"MAY" DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN WE AREN’T GETTING A DEAL BUT

WE AREN’T GETTING A DEAL BUT THE MARKETS ARE REACTING TO ANY

THE MARKETS ARE REACTING TO ANY HEADLINE TO YOUR POINT CHARLES.

HEADLINE TO YOUR POINT CHARLES. THE MARKET WAS SETUP

THE MARKET WAS SETUP FOR PERFECTION HERE AND

FOR PERFECTION HERE AND THE EXPECTATION ARE INCREDIBLY

THE EXPECTATION ARE INCREDIBLY ELEVATED ACROSS-THE-BOARD AND

ELEVATED ACROSS-THE-BOARD AND ABOUT EARNINGS, ABOUT

ABOUT EARNINGS, ABOUT THE ECONOMY, THEY ARE ELEVATED

THE ECONOMY, THEY ARE ELEVATED ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND OF

ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND OF COURSE THERE’S OPTIMISM ABOUT

COURSE THERE’S OPTIMISM ABOUT THE A.I. TRADE REALLY CONTINUING

THE A.I. TRADE REALLY CONTINUING THE MOMENTUM NEAR-TERM AND I

THE MOMENTUM NEAR-TERM AND I HAVE A DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM

HAVE A DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM AROUND ALL THREE OF

AROUND ALL THREE OF THOSE THINGS.

THOSE THINGS. CHARLES: IS YOUR SKEPTICISM

CHARLES: IS YOUR SKEPTICISM LONG-TERM NOW?

LONG-TERM NOW? DO YOU THINK THE A.I. TRADE IS

DO YOU THINK THE A.I. TRADE IS OVER FOR INSTANCE OR I MEAN

OVER FOR INSTANCE OR I MEAN SURE, YOU SEE THE BROADENING OUT

SURE, YOU SEE THE BROADENING OUT OF THE LABOR MARKET.

OF THE LABOR MARKET. WHAT ARE YOU SKEPTICAL THAT IT’S

WHAT ARE YOU SKEPTICAL THAT IT’S WEAKENING AND THE FED SHOULD BE

WEAKENING AND THE FED SHOULD BE CUTTING OR MORE THAN WE KNOW?

CUTTING OR MORE THAN WE KNOW? >> THAT’S THE POINT IS

>> THAT’S THE POINT IS THE LABOR MARKET IS CLEARLY

THE LABOR MARKET IS CLEARLY WEAKENING AND WE DON’T

WEAKENING AND WE DON’T GET THE OFFICIAL PAYROLLS DATA

GET THE OFFICIAL PAYROLLS DATA BUT WE GOT THE ALTERNATIVE DATA

BUT WE GOT THE ALTERNATIVE DATA SUGGESTING IT’S WEAKENING AND

SUGGESTING IT’S WEAKENING AND YET EVERYBODY ASSUMES IT’S NOT

YET EVERYBODY ASSUMES IT’S NOT GOING TO SPILL OVER TO ANYTHING

GOING TO SPILL OVER TO ANYTHING ELSE THAT THE LABOR MARKET WILL

ELSE THAT THE LABOR MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RESILIENT.

CONTINUE TO BE A RESILIENT. THAT’S A QUESTION MARK FOR ME,

THAT’S A QUESTION MARK FOR ME, AS FAR AS THE A.I. TRADE GOES,

AS FAR AS THE A.I. TRADE GOES, YOU KNOW, CLEARLY, WE’RE

YOU KNOW, CLEARLY, WE’RE BUILDING A WHOLE LOT OF CAPACITY

BUILDING A WHOLE LOT OF CAPACITY BUT THE QUESTION IS FOR WHAT?

BUT THE QUESTION IS FOR WHAT? WILL THE KILLER APPS ACTUALLY

WILL THE KILLER APPS ACTUALLY SURFACE IS OPENA.I. THE KILLER

SURFACE IS OPENA.I. THE KILLER APP BUT I THINK WE NEED

APP BUT I THINK WE NEED SOMETHING ELSE SO THAT’S WHAT

SOMETHING ELSE SO THAT’S WHAT I’M KIND OF SKEPTICAL ABOUT

I’M KIND OF SKEPTICAL ABOUT NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THERE’S A LOT

NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THERE’S A LOT OF CAPACITY, WHERE IS THE PAY

OF CAPACITY, WHERE IS THE PAY OFF.

OFF. CHARLES: IS THERE A CHANCE AND

CHARLES: IS THERE A CHANCE AND I’VE BEEN ASKING THIS QUESTION,

I’VE BEEN ASKING THIS QUESTION, WE ALL LIVED THROUGH THE JOBLESS

WE ALL LIVED THROUGH THE JOBLESS RECOVERY KIND OF THING, THAT

RECOVERY KIND OF THING, THAT WHEN THAT PHRASE WAS POPULAR.

WHEN THAT PHRASE WAS POPULAR. COULD WE HAVE A PARADIGM SHIFT

COULD WE HAVE A PARADIGM SHIFT IN OUR ECONOMY WHERE A.I. DOES

IN OUR ECONOMY WHERE A.I. DOES JUST ENOUGH THAT WE ACTUALLY DO

JUST ENOUGH THAT WE ACTUALLY DO HAVE LESS JOBS, FEWER JOBS, BUT

HAVE LESS JOBS, FEWER JOBS, BUT GREATER PROSPERITY?

GREATER PROSPERITY? CAN THAT BE, CAN THAT EXIST?

CAN THAT BE, CAN THAT EXIST? >> THAT’S IN A WAY WHERE

>> THAT’S IN A WAY WHERE THE MARKET HAS BEEN SETTING UP

THE MARKET HAS BEEN SETTING UP FOR AND BEEN EXPERIENCING,

FOR AND BEEN EXPERIENCING, BECAUSE THE LABOR MARKET HAS

BECAUSE THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN WEAKENING FOR THREE MONTHS

BEEN WEAKENING FOR THREE MONTHS AND YET THE MARKET, THE S&P HAS

AND YET THE MARKET, THE S&P HAS BEEN ROARING, SO I DO THINK,

BEEN ROARING, SO I DO THINK, CHARLES, THAT FOR EXAMPLE,

CHARLES, THAT FOR EXAMPLE, PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT INFLATION,

PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT INFLATION, BUT IF YOU HAVE THE COMBINATION

BUT IF YOU HAVE THE COMBINATION OF A.I., ON TOP OF EVERYTHING

OF A.I., ON TOP OF EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY, WE

ELSE GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY, WE MIGHT ACTUALLY PUT A CAP ON

MIGHT ACTUALLY PUT A CAP ON INFLATION, AND LOOK, NEAR-TERM,

INFLATION, AND LOOK, NEAR-TERM, I’M SKEPTICAL ABOUT

I’M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE MOMENTUM.

THE MOMENTUM. LONGER TERM IT IS CLEARLY A

LONGER TERM IT IS CLEARLY A SHORT CUT TO PRODUCTIVITY AND I

SHORT CUT TO PRODUCTIVITY AND I THINK THE OPPORTUNITY IS IMMENSE

THINK THE OPPORTUNITY IS IMMENSE ACROSS SECTORS, SO YES, I DO

ACROSS SECTORS, SO YES, I DO THINK THAT IT COULD BE A MORE

THINK THAT IT COULD BE A MORE TEMPERED LABOR MARKET AND YET

TEMPERED LABOR MARKET AND YET PRODUCTIVITY THAT PICKS UP.

PRODUCTIVITY THAT PICKS UP. CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT ONE

CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT ONE THING YOU THINK COULD BE A

THING YOU THINK COULD BE A TAILWIND, RATE CUTS.

TAILWIND, RATE CUTS. YOU SAY HELPS IN A LOT OF WAYS

YOU SAY HELPS IN A LOT OF WAYS RIGHT, IMPROVES CASH FLOW, MAYBE

RIGHT, IMPROVES CASH FLOW, MAYBE OFFSET TARIFFS, IMPROVE REAL

OFFSET TARIFFS, IMPROVE REAL ESTATE, YOU KNOW, WE SEE MAYBE

ESTATE, YOU KNOW, WE SEE MAYBE MORTGAGES COMING DOWN, AND

MORTGAGES COMING DOWN, AND SHORT-TERM EQUITY VALUATIONS.

SHORT-TERM EQUITY VALUATIONS. HOW MANY CUTS DO YOU SEE COMING?

HOW MANY CUTS DO YOU SEE COMING? >> I SEE ANOTHER TWO, AND I

>> I SEE ANOTHER TWO, AND I WILL SAY, NEAR-TERM, YOU KNOW,

WILL SAY, NEAR-TERM, YOU KNOW, CAUTIOUS.

CAUTIOUS. LONGER TERM IN 2026 OPTIMISTIC

LONGER TERM IN 2026 OPTIMISTIC BUT THAT IS CONTINGENT ON

BUT THAT IS CONTINGENT ON THE TWO MORE RATE CUTS BECAUSE

THE TWO MORE RATE CUTS BECAUSE IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS

IF WE DO HAVE 75 BASIS POINTS ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH

ALL IN IT CAN IMPROVE THE CASH FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE

FLOWS BECAUSE COMPANIES ARE CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF

CLEARLY ABSORBING SOME OF THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED

THE TARIFF COSTS, SO THEY NEED AN OFFSET.

AN OFFSET. IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL

IT CAN CERTAINLY IMPROVE REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE,

ESTATE VALUATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE, OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR

OR PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATIONS OR VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT

VALUATIONS IN GENERAL, SO THAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE

WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY,

AS WELL, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET

COULD IMPROVE THE LABOR MARKET BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO

BECAUSE WHAT DO COMPANIES DO WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN

WHEN THEY ARE UNCERTAIN OR WHEN THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS

THEY ARE ABSORBING COSTS SOMEWHERE ELSE?

SOMEWHERE ELSE? THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING

THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON HIRING MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF

MAYBE THEY ARE EVEN LAYING OFF WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD

WORKERS SO IF THE FED COULD CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF

CUSHION THAT BY GETTING SOME OF THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM,

THAT CASH FLOW BACK TO THEM, FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT

FROM LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT WOULD HELP.

WOULD HELP. CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE

CHARLES: SO JUST REAL QUICK WE DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT,

DIDN’T GET THE JOBS REPORT, RIGHT?

RIGHT? WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE

WHAT IF IT HAD COME IN NEGATIVE AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME

AND WE PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO

AND IT FEELS LIKE THE FED IS SO FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO

FAR BEHIND THE NEXT CUT HAS TO BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE

BE 50 BASIS POINTS ONCE WE GET THE DATA.

GET THE DATA. >> YEAH, WELL IF WE

>> YEAH, WELL IF WE GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK.

GET THE DATA, AND YOU KNOW LOOK. WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS

WHETHER YOU GET 25 BASIS POINTS AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN

AT THE END OF THIS MONTH OR IN ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN

ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS IN DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S

DECEMBER, I THINK THAT IT’S CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY

CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO SAY WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME

WE’RE GOING TO ASSUME THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO

THIS MEASURED APPROACH BUT I DO THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES

THINK THEY NEED TO ACT CHARLES BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P

BECAUSE WE GOT THE A DID P NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE

NUMBERS AND THEY WERE NEGATIVE LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY

LAST MONTH REVISED TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND

NEGATIVE THE MONTH BEFORE AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT

SO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER WE ACT BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS

BACK TO BACK OR 50 BASIS POINTS WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY.

WE’LL TAKE IT EITHER WAY. CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT

CHARLES: LET’S TALK ABOUT SECTORS.

SECTORS. YOU ARE STILL SEEING

YOU ARE STILL SEEING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKETS AND THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY

THIS IS JUST IN THE PUBLICLY TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS,

TRADED MARKETS, FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA

HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, DATA CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS.

CENTERS AND POWER GENERATORS. LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE

LET’S GO TO INDUSTRIALS BECAUSE YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE

YOU KNOW LIKE HOMEBUILDERS HAVE BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN

BEEN BRINGING INDUSTRIALS DOWN THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A

THE NUMBER ONE PERFORMER FOR A WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO

WHILE SLIPPING A LITTLE BIT SO YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT?

YOU HAVE TO BE SELECTIVE RIGHT? >> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT

>> IT IS A CYCLICAL SECTOR BUT AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S

AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW IT’S REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF

REALLY UNDERPINNED BY A LOT OF THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING.

THE SECULAR TRENDS HAPPENING. IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT

IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO

THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING

DO IS CAUSE A WAVE OF ONSHORING AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE

AND I THINK IT’S LIKELY TO BE SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT

SUCCESSFUL, SO IT’S ALL ABOUT LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS

LOCALIZATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE

AND TO DO THAT YOU DO NEED QUITE A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL

A BIT OF THOSE INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES.

ACTIVITIES. CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE

CHARLES: LET’S TALK PRIVATE MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS.

MARKETS VS. PUBLIC MARKETS. THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS

THE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR YOU IS PRETTY CLEAR.

PRETTY CLEAR. CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER

CHEAPER VALUATIONS, GREATER OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS

OPPORTUNITY, FASTER EARNINGS GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS.

GROWTH, BETTER PROFIT MARGINS. IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD

IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE

BE WORRIED ABOUT NEGATIVE HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE

HEADLINES COME OUT ABOUT PRIVATE CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS,

CREDIT, SOME OF THESE THINGS, SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP.

SOME THINGS HAVE BLOWN UP. WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL

WE SEE STOCKS LIKE BLUE OWL PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME

PULLING BACK AND BY THE SAME TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE

TOKEN, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO

CLAMMERRED FOR ACCESS TO THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

THIS FOR A LONG TIME. >> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING

>> RIGHT AND THEY ARE GETTING ACCESS TO THAT.

ACCESS TO THAT. NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY

NO I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY SAY CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF

CHARLES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ANY OF THOSE THINGS.

THOSE THINGS. I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A

I DO THINK THE RATE CUTS GO A LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE

LONG WAY TO SUPPORT PRIVATE MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A

MARKETS BUT I’LL TAKE A STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED

STEPFATHER AND SAY I’M WORRIED MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET

MID-TERM ABOUT THE PUBLIC MARKET VOLATILITY AND ONE OF

VOLATILITY AND ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A

THE REASONS WHY THIS IS EVEN A GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS

GREATER POINT TO EMPHASIZE IS BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU

BECAUSE PRIVATE MARKETS GIVE YOU THAT DIVERSIFICATION.

THAT DIVERSIFICATION. FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS

FOR EXAMPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND

ABOUT .24% TO GLOBAL 60/40, AND PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO

PRIVATE EQUITIES NOT GOING TO WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE

WHIP SAW LIKE PUBLIC MARKETS ARE GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH

GOING TO WHIP SAW ON EACH HEADLINE.

HEADLINE. CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW

CHARLES: JUST SORT OF FOLLOW WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF

WHAT THE RICH FOLKS ARE DOING IF YOU CAN.

YOU CAN. I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT.

I MEAN GET ACCESS TO IT. THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO

THIS IS WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO DO RIGHT PARTLY?

RIGHT PARTLY? THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE

THAT’S RIGHT INCREASE AND WE’VE ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY

ACTUALLY HAD A PRIVATE EQUITY EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE

EVERGREEN SOLUTION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS

CLIENTS FOR 16 YEARS, SO IT IS INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY

INCREDIBLY, INCREASINGLY ACCESSIBLE.

ACCESSIBLE. CHARLES: GREAT STUFF.

CHARLES: GREAT STUFF. I’M SO LUCKY TO HAVE YOU ON A

主要な語彙

語彙	意味
market /ˈmɑːrkɪt/ A1	noun - 市場
navigate /ˈnævɪɡeɪt/ B1	verb - 航行する verb - 切り抜ける
constructive /kənˈstrʌktɪv/ B2	adjective - 建設的な
difficult /ˈdɪfɪkəlt/ A2	adjective - 難しい
investment /ɪnˈvɛstmənt/ B1	noun - 投資
strategy /ˈstrætɪdʒi/ B2	noun - 戦略
optimism /ˈɒptɪmɪzəm/ B2	noun - 楽観主義
skepticism /ˈskɛptɪsɪzəm/ C1	noun - 懐疑主義
momentum /moʊˈmɛntəm/ B2	noun - 勢い
volatile /ˈvɒlətaɪl/ C1	adjective - 変動の大きい
diversification /dɪˌvɜːrsɪfɪˈkeɪʃən/ C1	noun - 多角化
absorb /əbˈsɔːrb/ B1	verb - 吸収する
infrastructure /ˈɪnfrəstrʌktʃər/ C1	noun - インフラ
localization /ˌloʊkəlaɪˈzeɪʃən/ C1	noun - ローカライゼーション
secular /ˈsɛkjʊlər/ C1	adjective - 世俗的な adjective - 長期的な